Kadane, Joseph B.

Koehler, Jonathan J.

Iowa State University Computer Science Technical Reports

Certainty and Uncertainty in Reporting Fingerprint Evidence

Kadane, Joseph

Koehler, Jonathan

Digital Repository @ Iowa State University (ISU)

CERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY IN REPORTING FINGERPRINT EVIDENCEJoseph B. (Jay) Kadane(kadane@stat.cmu.edu)Carnegie Mellon University and CSAFEAndJonathan J. Koehler(jay.koehler@northwestern.edu)Northwestern Pritzker School of Law1July 21, 20171Research funded by the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) - forensicstats.orgOutline1. The scenario2. The statements3. Graphs2July 21, 20172Research funded by the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) - forensicstats.org1. The ScenarioMr. Richard Johnson was charged with robbing a convenience store. Although the perpetrator of the crime wore a hood that covered his face, Mr. Johnson became a suspect when the store owner told police that he thought the perpetrator sounded very much like one of his frequent customers, Mr. Richard Johnson. The store owner also told police that the perpetrator reached into the opened cash register with his bare hand and lifted one of the trays. When a police fingerprint examiner examined the cash register and its inside trays for fingerprints, he found 19 prints that were suitable for comparison purposes. The fingerprint examiner eliminated Mr. Johnson as a potential source of 18 of those prints. However, the fingerprint examiner was not able to eliminate Mr. Johnson as a possible contributor of one of the prints that was found on the cash register tray. At Mr. Johnson’s robbery trial, the fingerprint examiner was called to testify for the prosecution.3July 21, 20173Research funded by the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) - forensicstats.org2. The Statements1. “… I cannot exclude the defendant, Mr. Johnson, as a possible contributor of that print.”2. “… the likelihood of observing this amount of correspondence when two impressions are made by different sources is considered extremely low.”3. “… in my opinion, the defendant, Mr. Johnson, is the source of that print.”4. “… in my opinion, the defendant, Mr. Johnson, is the source of that print to a reasonable degree of scientific certainty.”5. “… I was able to effect an individualization on that latent print to the defendant, Mr. Johnson.”6. “…I was able to effect an individualization on that latent print to the defendant, Mr. Johnson, to the exclusion of all other possible sources in the world.”4July 21, 20174Research funded by the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) - forensicstats.org5Comparison of Indices of the ConditionsJuly 21, 20173. Graphs5Research funded by the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) - forensicstats.org6Examiner Certainty by ConditionJuly 21, 20176Research funded by the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) - forensicstats.org7Index by Conviction PronenessJuly 21, 20177Research funded by the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) - forensicstats.org

https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1015&context=csafe_conf

Certainty and Uncertainty in Reporting Fingerprint Evidence

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Iowa State University Computer Science Technical Reports

Digital Repository @ Iowa State University (ISU)