Incidents involving fires and explosions present a major hazard to the workforce on
offshore oil and gas platforms. Following the Piper Alpha Disaster in 1988, platform
operators for the UK sector are required to submit safety cases for approval by the
Health and Safety Executive. A key requirement of these safety cases is that hazards
associated with an accidental release of hydrocarbons have been demonstrated to be
as low as reasonably practicable.
This paper aims to describe a process for estimating the expected number of fatalities
on offshore platforms with open-sided modules using a Monte Carlo simulation
method implemented within the SAROS (Safety and Reliability of Offshore
Structures) software. The process involves estimation of the frequency and magnitude
of jet fires, pool fires and explosions. This is combined with the distribution of the
workforce over the platform at the time of the incident to predict the risk of fatality
