De Cruz, Lelsey

Delobbe, Laurent

Termonia, Piet

Vannitsem, Stéphane

English

Ghent University Academic Bibliography

EMS Annual Meeting AbstractsVol. 16, EMS2019-759, 2019© Author(s) 2019. CC Attribution 4.0 License.Project IMA: Seamless short-term ensemble prediction at the RMIBLesley De Cruz, Laurent Delobbe, Piet Termonia, and Stéphane VannitsemRoyal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium (lesley.decruz@meteo.be)The density of meteorological observations and the amount of novel data sources have been increasing steadilyin recent years. Likewise, more computational power is available than ever before: not just for data processingand numerical weather prediction (NWP), but also for impact modelling. Along with these rising trends in bothdata availability and modelling capabilities, the requirements for operational forecasting systems are shifting. Thisshift is apparent from the smartphone user who expects near-real-time updates, to the hydrologist or wind energyprovider who needs ensemble predictions to estimate uncertainty. Indeed, the focus is moving from traditionaldeterministic forecasts towards probabilistic, convection-permitting and rapidly updating forecasting systems.With project IMA (Japanese for "soon" or "now"), the RMIB wants to anticipate these evolving expecta-tions. We will leverage innovative nowcasting, blending and data assimilation techniques to combine data-drivenprobabilistic short-term predictions with convection-permitting NWP models. The goal is to have a seamlesshigh-resolution probabilistic short-term forecast (24 hours).We will present some of the building blocks of the IMA system. The short-term ensemble prediction sys-tem for Belgium (STEPS-BE) is a key component. It generates probabilistic precipitation forecasts, and featuresan adaptive skill-dependent blending with NWP forecasts. These NWP forecasts will come from a multi-modelmini-EPS, based on different convection-permitting configurations of the ALADIN model.Finally, we stress that the key to success for project IMA is not just the science behind it. Its success alsohinges on effective communication with end users, quality assurance through probabilistic verification, and therobustness of the operational system.

Project IMA: Seamless short-term ensemble prediction at the RMIB

https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8652650/file/8652653.pdf

Project IMA: Seamless short-term ensemble prediction at the RMIB

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