Akinsete, Ebun

Gampe, David

Huber García, Verena

Ker Rault, Philippe

Kok, Kasper

Kounouri, Phoebe

Ludwig, Ralf

Luttik, Joke

Nikulin, Grigory

Pistocchi, Alberto

Souliotis, Ioannis

English

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Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

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Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 19, EGU2017-19442-1, 2017EGU General Assembly 2017© Author(s) 2017. CC Attribution 3.0 License.Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquaticecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean – perspectives fromthe GLOBAQUA projectVerena Huber-Garcia (1), Ebun Akinsete (2), David Gampe (1), Philippe Ker Rault (3), Kasper Kok (4), PhoebeKoundouri (2,5,8), Joke Luttik (3), Grigory Nikulin (6), Alberto Pistocchi (7), Ioannis Souliotis (2), and RalfLudwig (1)(1) Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University (LMU) Munich, Germany, (2) International Center forResearch on the Environment and the Economy (ICRE8), Athens, Greece, (3) Wageningen Environmental Research,Wageningen, Netherlands, (4) Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Netherlands, (5) AthensUniversity of Economic and Business, Athens, Greece, (6) Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and HydrologicalInstitute, Norrkoping, Sweden, (7) Water Resources Unit, DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy, (8)London School of Economics (LSE), London, UKWater and water-related services are major components of the human wellbeing, and as such are major factorsof socio-economic development; yet freshwater systems are under threat by a variety of stressors (organic andinorganic pollution, geomorphological alterations, land cover change, water abstraction, invasive species andpathogens).Water scarcity is most commonly associated with inappropriate water management and resulting river flowreductions. It has become one of the most important drivers of change in freshwater ecosystems. Conjointoccurrence of a myriad of stressors (chemical, geomorphological, biological) under water scarcity will producenovel and unfamiliar synergies and most likely very pronounced effects. Stressors are hierarchically arranged interms of intensity, frequency and scale, and their effects can be predicted to be from transient to irreversible. Mostecosystems are simulta¬neously exposed to multiple-stress situations.Within the scope of the GLOBAQUA project the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems in se-lected river basins across Europe with a focus on areas suffering from water scarcity are analyzed. In addition,management strategies are improved and adapted with the aim of inhibiting adverse effects on aquatic ecosystemsand ensuring the supply with water for all purposes in the study areas also in the future. Policy relevant implica-tions will be given to ensure a best possible status of these aquatic ecosystems also under future conditions. In thiscontext, land use and land cover as well as the meteorological conditions can be seen as two main stressors forthe quality and quantity of surface and subsurface water. These factors considerably affect the use and availabilityof water, especially in regions which already experience water scarcity. If the problem is not addressed correctly,negative effects on biodiversity, water supply as well as important economic consequences may arise. In Europe,many fresh water systems experience this and a worsening of the situation can be expected if actions are nottaken. To assess future conditions, spatially distributed, integrated scenarios to drive various impact models areinevitable. These simulations then assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems, both in water quality andquantity, and in the end provide decision support.To achieve this goal, a modeling framework is set up to develop integrated scenarios of changes in climate,land use and water management. These scenarios are based on storylines around various Representative Concen-tration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as established the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC), and developed in collaboration with project partners and experts. Major challengesstem from the downscaling of these to the regional scale.Projections of future climate conditions originate from the simulations provided through the EURO-CORDEXproject. An ensemble of different General Circulation Models (GCMs) driving various Regional Climate Models(RCMs) is available. After a thorough investigation of these projections and an estimation of the uncertaintyenvelope, a small subset of models was chosen in a carefully conducted selection procedure, following a clusteranalysis. These selected simulations were downscaled to better represent the regional conditions and provide theimplications of the RCPs in the storylines.The impacts of the SSPs are represented in spatially distributed land use maps developed through the landuse change model iCLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). In a first step knowledge on past land usechange is required and an analysis was carried out based on the CORINE land cover data. Extensive expert surveyshave been conducted in the case study areas to determine the most important drivers of these changes, consideringboth, biophysical and socio-economic variables. The results of these were implemented in iCLUE taking intoaccount dynamic changes of the climate, population and economy.Climate and land use projections will then be applied to provide possible future conditions and various im-pact modeling activities within the GLOBAQUA project. This approach is favored over a non-integrated approachusing only climate projections, and required to develop and test site specific Programs of Measures (PoMs).Eventually, decision support can be provided to local authorities for effective PoMs.[The funding for this research through the FP7-project GLOBAQUA by the European Commission (GA:603629) is gratefully acknowledged.]

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Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

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