Professional forecasters can rely on an econometric model to create their forecasts. It is
usually unknown to what extent they adjust an econometric model‐based forecast. In this paper we
show, while making just two simple assumptions, that it is possible to estimate the persistence and
variance of the deviation of their forecasts from forecasts from an econometric model. A key feature
of the data that facilitates our estimates is that we have forecast updates for the same forecast target.
An illustration to consensus forecasters who give forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and
unemployment for a range of countries and years suggests that the more a forecaster deviates from
a prediction from an econometric model, the less accurate are the forecasts
