The Effect of U.S. Officials’ Visits on Conflict

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the number of visits by U.S. Presidents and Secretaries of State to the country on civil conflict. To achieve our objective, we compile novel variables that indicate the number of official visits from 1960-2017 derived from the historical archives of the U.S. State Department. To deal with potential endogeneity, we introduce novel instrumental variables for the number of official visits variables, namely aviation safety and capital distance. The 2SLS estimations provide evidence that the visits by U.S. officials to the country have a statistically significant positive effect on the onset of conflict. This indicates that the visits by U.S. officials induce the insurgents to engage in armed conflict with the incumbent government that is perceived as a stooge of the United States