Gruber, Johannes

Steck, Felix

Thoma, Lars

English

Institute of Transport Research:Publications

Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in GermanyJohannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix SteckGerman Aerospace Center (DLR)Institute of Transport ResearchBerlin, GermanyTelephone: +49 30 67055 200Email: johannes.gruber@dlr.de8th METRANS International Urban Freight Conference, October 16-18, 2019, Long Beach, CAAgenda> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 2• Motivation• Project background:cargo bike (CB) trial • Stated preference (SP) experiment design• Model results• ConclusionsFactors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in GermanyJust a “boring“ German street scene…?> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 3Parcel delivery vanCafé / bar (possibly destination of service trip)Vehicle passingHow can we shift more trips to cargo bikes?Double-parked carused for a service tripVehicle type choice for freight and service tripsDouble-parked heavy truckParked carsNote: Background picture removed due to copyrightResearch question and context> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 4Research question:Which factors explain the use of cargo bikes (CB) and cars in urban logistics?Research context and method:• Organizations willing to change from car (or van) use to CB• SP choice experiment at the end of a CB trial phase• Additional RP data• Mixed logit to model vehicle type choice CARGO BIKE (CB)CARProject background: Germany-wide CB trial “Taking the load off cities”(German title “Ich entlaste Städte”)> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 5Large-scale CB trial…• 152 vehicles• 2 years of testing in total• 3 months for each participant…for a diverse target group…• Companies of all industries• Public institutions• NGOs, initiatives• Freelancers, self-employed… with similarities• All are willing to downshift• All gained operational CB experienceSome examples of the CB trial participants> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 6Brewery Beer deliveries to local supermarketsToy repair service Transport of toysReal estate firmTrips to viewing appointmentsChurch communityHelping priests for on-site visitsBeekeepersTransport of beehivesMovie productionTransport of equipment to filmlocationElectrical engineeringCustomer support tripsCaramel factoryDelivery of sweetsCB trial fleet: 5 main types of construction, 23 different models, 152 vehicles> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 7Pizza delivery bikeLong John bikeTricycle, front load Heavy load tricycleLongtail bike“Specialist” CBSample descriptive statistics: Vehicle useNo. of wheelsConstruction typeTypical modelNo. of modelsNo. of participants in sample2Pizza delivery bike1 26Long John bike10 206Longtailbike2 93Tricycle, front load6 84Heavy-load tricycle4 14Distance parameter Value Data basisMean daily mileage12.1 km7.5 mi5,002 GPS-tracked daysMean single trip distance5.1 km3.2 mi11,736 GPS-tracked tripsSum=339(sample size)> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 8Main operational purpose Share of CB trial participantsDelivery of goods 21%Pick-up / procurement of goods 13%Provision of services 38%Other business-related errands 25%Private errands 3%Cargo biketrial  (3 months)Study design: Overview> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 9Baseline survey (before trial phase)SP survey(at the end oftrial phase)Mixed logit model Additional variablesSP experimentvariablesCBCARTRIP WOULD NOT BE CARRIED OUT UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCESStudy design: Example of a SP choice experimentPRECIPITATIONTEMPERATURE 18 °C (64 °F)PARKING At point of destination Parking availableINFRASTRUCTURE Safe bike path StreetTRAVEL TIME 13 min 18 min TOTAL COST OF TRIP € 5 € 6RISK OF DAMAGING GOODS 15 % 0 %RISK OF DELAY 15 % 0 %CARGO BIKE CAR> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 10TRIP DISTANCE(ROUNDTRIP)5 km (3.1 mi)YESSP survey question: Which vehicle would you choose for a trip under the following conditions?ALTERNATIVE-SPECIFIC ATTRIBUTESINDEPENDENT ATTRIBUTESStudy design: Attributes of SP experimentsPRECIPITATIONTEMPERATURE -3 °C (27 °F)  |  5 °C (41 °F)  |  18 °C (64 °F)Yes NoPARKING At point of destination No stopping zone |  Parking availableINFRASTRUCTURE Safe bike path  |  Mixed use street StreetTRAVEL TIME 13 | 21 | 30 min  ||  32 | 51 | 72 min 10 | 12 | 18 min  ||  25 | 30 | 45 minTOTAL COST OF TRIP € 3.5 | € 5 | € 7.5  ||  € 8.4 | € 12 | € 18 € 6 | € 8.5 |  € 12.5  ||  € 14.4 | € 20.4 | € 30RISK OF DAMAGING GOODS 0 %  |  5 %  |  15 % 0 %  |  5 %  |  15 %RISK OF DELAY 0 %  |  5 %  |  15 % 0 %  |  5 %  |  15 %ALTERNATIVE-SPECIFIC ATTRIBUTESTRIP WOULD NOT BE CARRIED OUT UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCESINDEPENDENT ATTRIBUTES> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 112 SETS OF CARDS FOR TRIP DISTANCE (ROUNDTRIP)5 km (3.1 mi)   ||  12 km (7.5 mi)CARGO BIKE CARResults overview: Actual choice of alternatives> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 12Sample size: 3,051 choices by 339 respondentsNON-CHOICEn=1,815 (59%) n=1,088 (36%)n=148 (5%)CARGO BIKE CARResults overview: Factors explaining the use of cargo bikes and cars significant non-significant> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 13ADDITIONAL VARIABLESSP EXPERIMENT VARIABLES• TEMPERATURE• PRECIPITATION• PARKING• ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE• TRAVEL TIME• TOTAL COST OF TRIP• RISK OF DAMAGING GOODS• RISK OF DELAYORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS• Main operational purpose• Change in fleet managementduring CB trial• Suitability of CB for transport tasks• Type of organization• Number of employees• Fleet configuration prior to CB trial• Time-critical transportsINDIVIDUAL FACTORS• Operative use of CB by respondent during trial• Age• SexCONTEXTUAL FACTORS• Population density at trial site• CB trial was conducted in winter Results of a Mixed Logit Model: SP experiment variables> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 14Variable Value BaseChoiceRef.Est.valuet-valueTEMPERATURE 5 °C (41 °F) -3 °C (27 °F) CAR -0.39 -2.76NC -1.14 -3.8418 °C (64 °F) -3 °C (27 °F) CAR -0.97 -7.52NC -1.78 -5.91PRECIPITATION Yes No CAR 2.58 20.31NC 3.06 11.64PARKING No stopping zone Parking available CAR -0.52 -4.69ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE Safe bike path Road with mixed trafficCB 0.34 3.39TRAVEL TIME CAR -0.01 -2.15CB -0.06 -16.53TOTAL COST OF TRIP GEN -0.04 -5.83RISK OF DAMAGING GOODSGEN -0.02 -4.24n=3,051 SP experimentsLog-Likelihood: -1838.1Car Cargo Bike Non-Choice GenericModerate temperatures increase the intention to use CB…… but rain is among the strongest factors to avoid cycling.Lack of parking prevents car use.Good bike infrastructure has a noticeable effect.Longer travel times reduce willingness to use CB to a greater extent than for cars.Total cost of trip and risk of damaging goods show expected signModel results: Additional variables> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 15Variable Value BaseChoiceRef.Est.valuet-valueMAIN OPERATIONAL PURPOSEDelivery of goods All other purposesCAR 0.47 2.53CHANGE IN FLEET MGMT DURING CB TRIALPositive change No or negative changeCAR -0.48 -2.88SUITABILITY OF CB FOR TRANSPORT TASKSHigh suitability Low suitabilty CAR -0.93 -5.80OPERATIVE USE OF CB BY RESPONDENT DURING TRIALRespondent is only CB userRespondents and others, only others are usersCAR -0.50 -3.29ALTERNATIVE-SPECIFIC CONSTANTSCAR -1.92 -8.49NC -7.99 -16.45SIGMA CAR 1.00 12.11CB -0.04 -0.15NC -2.30 -8.42Car Cargo Bike Non-Choice GenericCB were rather chosen for the provision of services or other business-related errands than for goods delivery.Positive effects during trial phase push decisions towards CB.Individual experience of vehicle use increases CB choice.n=3,051 SP experimentsLog-Likelihood: -1838.1Sigmas (normally distributed) take account for the panel effect.Conclusions and outlook• Contribution reveals factors leading to vehicle type choice in an unusual segment of urban logistics with…• smaller vehicles involved,• short trip distances, • service trips and freight trips of non-logisticians.• Findings are (rather) valid for organizations that are already willing to downshift.• Service providers might be a better target group for CB deployment than delivery companies.• Good bicycle infrastructure and reduction of car parking show substantial effects.• Trial programs can remove reservations and obstacles.• Rain is much more deterrent than cold temperatures.> Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany  >  Johannes Gruber, Lars Thoma, Felix Steck  >  October 2019DLR.de  •  Slide 16One out of the 23 tested CB models was equipped with rain protection.Thank you! Questions?Johannes Gruber German Aerospace Center (DLR)Institute of Transport ResearchBerlin, GermanyTelephone: +49 30 67055 200Email: johannes.gruber@dlr.de

Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany

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Factors Explaining the Use of Cargo Bikes and Cars in Urban Logistics: Results from a Stated Preference Experiment in Germany

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