Variability in climatic factors is one of the main determinants of agriculture production. Past agrarian studies have shown that variability in rainfall and temperature has decline agriculture production in entire North Indian States. Farmers, especially small and marginal are adversely affected from climate variability. They have less resources and coping strategies against the climatic variability. Rice is the one of important crop for all North Indian State’s people. Level of temperature already reaches to tolerance level of crops and it is increasing day by day. Also variability in rainfall during Kharif cropping season has been reported in all North Indian states. Incidence of extreme climatic events such as drought and flood is also repeated in these areas. Level of carbon dioxide is also increased due to over exploitation of natural resources and industrial activities in these states. Growth in population is much higher in last three decades. So burden on natural resources such as on agriculture is becoming very high. Agriculture sector needs immediate action against climate variability. Mitigation strategies are time taking process. However, an adaptation method is best technique to mitigate consequences of climate variability. Sowing date and use of technological tools are the best adaptive method to minimize the impact of climate variability

Singh, S. (Surendra )

English

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Climate Variability and Rice Production in North India: A Review

Economic Affairs - Official Publication of AESRA

Economic Affairs, Vol. 64, No. 2, pp. 425-429, June 2019
DOI: 10.30954/0424-2513.2.2019.19
©2019 New Delhi Publishers. All rights reserved
Climate Variability and Rice Production in North India: A 
Review
Surendra Singh* and Mohamad Awais
ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, Pusa, New Delhi, India
*Corresponding author: surendra.singh735@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Variability in climatic factors is one of the main determinants of agriculture production. Past agrarian 
studies have shown that variability in rainfall and temperature has decline agriculture production in 
entire North Indian States. Farmers, especially small and marginal are adversely affected from climate 
variability. They have less resources and coping strategies against the climatic variability. Rice is the one 
of important crop for all North Indian State’s people. Level of temperature already reaches to tolerance 
level of crops and it is increasing day by day. Also variability in rainfall during Kharif cropping season 
has been reported in all North Indian states. Incidence of extreme climatic events such as drought and 
flood is also repeated in these areas. Level of carbon dioxide is also increased due to over exploitation of 
natural resources and industrial activities in these states. Growth in population is much higher in last three 
decades. So burden on natural resources such as on agriculture is becoming very high. Agriculture sector 
needs immediate action against climate variability. Mitigation strategies are time taking process. However, 
an adaptation method is best technique to mitigate consequences of climate variability. Sowing date and 
use of technological tools are the best adaptive method to minimize the impact of climate variability.
Highlights
 m Climate change is adversely affecting to the agriculture and posing serious threat to livelihood 
security in North India. Among the Kharif season crops, rice crop was found highly climate sensitive.
Keywords: Carbon dioxide, rainfall, rice production, temperature, vulnerability
Climate is one of the main determinant factors of 
agricultural production. Throughout the world there 
is significant concern about the effect of climate 
change and its variability on agriculture production. 
Researchers are concerned with the potential 
damages of climate change that rises in agriculture. 
Past studies have shown a significant effect of 
changes in climatic factors on average crop yield 
(Mall et al. 2006; Cline, 2007; Seo and Mendelsohn 
2008). Small farmers are most sensitive from climate 
variability as compared to large and commercial 
farmers with least adaptive capacity and higher 
reliance on the most vulnerable occupation like 
agriculture.
In India, past studies have shown that India is 
likely to witness one of the highest agricultural 
productivity losses in the world in accordance with 
the climate change pattern observed and scenarios 
projected (Kavi Kumar, 2010; Dash et al. 2007; 
Sathaye et al. 2006; Goswami et al. 2006; Srinivasan 
2008). First, temperatures would be increase up to 
2-4°C by 2100 with no substantial change in annual 
precipitation (Kavi kumar, 2010). Second, among 
the food crops, rice and wheat are the most climate 
sensitive crops and adversely affected to changing 
climate. Third, dry areas will get drier and the wet 
areas will get wetter. Fourth, there is also greater 
consensus now in future climate variability in India 
that will increase leading to more frequent extremes 
of weather in the form of uncertain onsets of 
monsoons and frequency and intensity of drought 
and flooding etc.
With these evidences, the present study has 
reviewed the existing literature on the nexus of 
Singh and Awais
426Print ISSN : 0424-2513 Online ISSN : 0976-4666
climate change and rice production. Data of rainfall 
and temperatures during 1901-2010 have been 
analyzed to examine the variability in rainfall and 
temperature. Further, long average temperature and 
rainfall data have linked with previous studies to 
validate the thesis of climate change in the North 
Indian agricultural system. Lastly, mitigation and 
adaptation strategies have also been reviewed to 
overcome the current environmental crisis.
Sensitivity to Southwest Monsoon: The Nexus 
Between Rainfall and Water
The geographical position of India makes it highly 
vulnerable to different kinds of natural disasters. 
Figure 1 depicts annual variability in rainfall over 
North India. In the year 1997 and 1998 there was 
surplus rainfall. However, from 1999 to 2002, it 
shows negative trends over the North Indian states. 
Overall rainfall deficiency for the Northern States 
was 26.1 percent. Similar trend was shown in all over 
India. In 2002, water storage in 71 major reservoirs 
was 33 percent which is less than the average of 
previous 10 years. About 21.5 million ha area was 
not sown and 47 million hectare of sown area was 
damaged, with a food grain short fall of more than 
29 million tons (GoI, 2003). About 300 million people 
were affected. A loss of 1250 million man-days of 
employment was also reported. Ground water table 
in entire North Indian states had declined by 2 to 4 
meter below from normal levels. Every day about 
1.5 billion liters of drinking water was transported 
by tankers and railways during drought period 
(GoI, 2003). Similar episode was repeated in the 
year 2004. In this year, 21.3 percent less rainfall 
has received in the North Indian States. Moreover, 
turning point comes in rainfall history of North 
Indian states in the year 2009. Entire north Indian 
states received -35.5 percent less rainfalls from 
normal rainfall level and suffered from drought.
Maximum Temperature and Agriculture: 
Exploring the Nexus
Temperature plays a vital role in agriculture 
production. Suitable temperature brought higher 
production. The present study has examined the 
changes in maximum temperature during 1901-
2010 (Fig. 2). The mean maximum temperature has 
increased by 0.21 OC during 1901-50. The overall 
 
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
0
200
400
600
800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Drought
Drought
Drought
Fig. 1: Actual Rainfall and Deficit rainfall in North India during June-September over 1997- 2010
Source: Indian Metrological Department, India
 
30.84 30.93 30.94 30.93
31.05 30.98
31.21 31.26
31.41 31.5
31.63
30.4
30.6
30.8
31
31.2
31.4
31.6
31.8
Average Miximum Temperature (June- September)
Fig. 2: Mean Maximum Temperature (June-September) all over India 1901-2010
Source: Indian Metrological Department, India
Climate Variability and Rice Production in North India: A Review
427Print ISSN : 0424-2513 Online ISSN : 0976-4666
increased in maximum temperature was reported by 
0.790C during 1901-2010. There are three key reasons 
for rapid increased in maximum temperature; (i) 
rapid industrialization and urbanization, (ii) change 
in land use pattern, and (iii) over-exploitation of 
natural resources.
Minimum temperature is also important in terms 
of agriculture production. Average minimum 
temperature in Northern India has shown 
increasing trend. In year 1901 average minimum 
temperature was 23.21 OC which is increase and 
in year 2010 reported as 23.45 (Fig. 3). Average 
minimum temperature has been increase as 0.24OC. 
This temperature increased only for four month 
during rice season (Kharif crop season June to 
September month). As previously mentioned 
higher temperature poses negative trends in rice 
production. Sinha and Swaninathan (1991) estimate 
their studies that a 20C increases in temperature 
could decreased rice yield by about 0.75 ton/
hectare in high-yield areas (Punjab, Haryana, and 
Uttar Pradesh) and by about 0.06 ton/ hectare in 
low-yield areas. Higher temperature either day or 
night affected growing period of rice yield. Higher 
temperature also brought physiological impacts 
on crops.
Physiological Impacts on Crops
Climate change has changed the physiology 
of crops in two manners; (i) exceed the rate of 
carbon fertilization, and (ii) speedup the rate of 
photosynthesis. For instance, the biomass yield of a 
crop can be taken as the product of the rate of biomass 
accumulation. The rate of biomass accumulation 
is determined by photosynthesis rate minus the 
respiration rate (biomass = rate of photosynthesis-
rate of respiration). The first is primarily governed 
by the radiation and the latter by ambient air 
temperature. Higher temperature shortens the 
crop growth period; consequently reduce the 
period available to the plant for photosynthesis 
accumulation. Hence, highest potential yield of 
a particular annual crop is therefore obtained in 
regions where the crop duration is characterized 
by relatively low temperatures unless the radiation 
levels are also low (Ritchie, 1993). This is due to 
the fact that, at low temperature levels the crop 
gets more days to mature, therefore, accumulate 
more biomass. Hence, there will be a reduction 
in the grain weight of crop plants with increase 
temperature (Saseendran et al. 2000).
Vulnerability from Climate Change in 
Agriculture
In North India, agriculture purely depends on rivers 
for irrigation water. NATCOM-1(2004) has estimated 
that the severity of drought and intensity of floods 
are likely increase due to climatic variability. Ground 
water supplies are likely to be affected by a number 
of factors, including higher runoff leading to lower 
recharge increase in flooding in all over northern 
India. Scarcity of water in whole Gangatic belt also 
affected farmers in terms of ground water table. 
Basically rivers of Gangatic belt not only provided 
water for irrigation but also increased ground water 
table. Reports found that ground water table in these 
areas shown declined trends. When water table is 
decline farmers are digging bore wells more deeply 
for water, due to this activity, cost of agriculture 
inputs is increases day by day. Usually small and 
 
23.21 23.25
23.27 23.28 23.32
23.35
23.1
22.95
23.14
23.4 23.45
22.7
22.8
22.9
23
23.1
23.2
23.3
23.4
23.5
Average Minimum Temperature
Fig. 3: Mean Maximum Temperature (June-September) all over India 1901-2010
Source: Indian Metrological Department, India
Singh and Awais
428Print ISSN : 0424-2513 Online ISSN : 0976-4666
marginal farmers are purchasing water for irrigation 
from state government or large farmers. When they 
have purchase water for irrigation from different 
bodies either government or private, it increased the 
input cost of agriculture. However, in many times 
water is not timely provided by these bodies which 
resulted complete or partial crop failure.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
The purpose of mitigation and adaptation strategies 
is therefore to attempt a gradual reversal of the effects 
caused by climate change and sustain development 
under the inescapable effects of climate change. It 
is important to understand the subtle difference 
between mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation 
and adaptation are related to the temporal and 
spatial scales on which they are effective. The 
benefits of mitigation activities carried out today 
will be evidenced in several decades because of 
the long residence time of green house gases in 
the atmosphere, whereas the effects of adaptation 
measures should be apparent immediately or in 
the near future (Kumar and Parikh, 2001). Besides, 
mitigation strategies have global in adaptation to 
local benefits, whereas adaptation typically takes 
place on a local or regional scale.
Variability in rainfall affects agriculture productivity 
significantly and leads to stagnation decline in 
production across various agro-climatic zones. To 
mitigate the climate change considered changing 
cropping calendars and patterns will be the 
immediate best available option with available crop 
varieties. The option like introducing new cropping 
sequences, late or early maturing crop varieties 
depending on the available growing season, 
conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage 
practices, efficient water harvesting techniques, 
and developing heat and drought tolerance crop 
varieties by utilizing genetic resources. That may 
be better adapted to new climatic and atmospheric 
conditions should be the long term strategy. 
Genetic manipulation may also help to exploit the 
beneficial effects of increased carbon dioxide on 
crop growth and water use. One of the promising 
approaches would be gene pyramiding to enhance 
the adaptation capacity of plants to climate change 
inputs.
Sowing Date
The effect of changing sowing date on the yield of 
rice was significant in several locations (Krishnan et 
al. 2007). These insights can be used to predict the 
effect of changing sowing dates with different future 
climate scenarios. For instance, changes to rice yield 
(Variety, IR36) under three global circulation models 
(GCMs), GFDL, GISS, UKMO are presented five 
sowing dates in Jorhat, India. Changes to sowing 
dates may necessitate other management adjustment 
as well. Table 1 represents impact of sowing dates 
on crop production. When crop is grow in the field 
at first June with all varieties of rice crops sowing 
negative trends. However, 15 June date of sowing 
positive trends. Another positive trend has shown 
when rice crop is sowing at first July. It shows that 
27.1 percent more rice production. This table also 
describes importance of sowing date. However, 
when crop is sowing on first august with all type 
varieties sowing negative trends.
Table 1: Change in rice yield percent across future 
climate scenario under various sowing dates
Model Sowing dates
GCM 1st June 15th June 1st July 15th July 1st August
GFDL -9.4 13.5 27.1 17.2 -6.8
GISS -8.6 12.3 24.3 16.8 -7.5
UKMO -17.6 7.6 13.4 5.4 -16.4
Source: Krishnan et al. 2007.
Breeding Strategies and Biotechnology
Biotechnology may address at least several of the 
major stresses plants face from direct and indirect 
climate change impact (Cheikh et al. 2000) for 
example; salinity and drought tolerance to low 
temperatures has needed in rice, expanding its 
range. Crops could have developed drought or 
salinity tolerance and sub-freezing temperature. Less 
effort was put into developing genetic modification 
to allow heat tolerance in crops, mainly because 
heat stress was associated with drought, which has 
been widely addressed (IPCC, 2007b). A major task 
of our time is to ensure adequate food supplies for 
the world current population in a sustainable way 
while protecting the vital functions and biological 
diversity of global environment.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Climate variability is disturbing agriculture practices 
all over the globe. Climate change has no boundary. 
Climate Variability and Rice Production in North India: A Review
429Print ISSN : 0424-2513 Online ISSN : 0976-4666
It equally affected both developed and developing 
countries. India is second most populated country 
in the world, where the majority of rural population 
still dependent on agriculture for their livelihood 
and over 600 million farmers are involved in 
agriculture related activities or allied activities. It 
contributes about 30 percent of the gross domestic 
product in India. In India, number of small and 
marginal land holding is greater than compared 
to large and commercial land holdings. In many 
parts of India, especially in North Indian states 
farmers are cultivating crops by using traditional 
tools and techniques. For instance, farmers are not 
using genetically modified verities. In North Indian 
state, rise in temperature and variability in rainfall 
are adversely affecting to the agriculture and have 
making agriculture to climate sensitive.
 Rice is a main food crops in North India that 
feeds millions of people and has a source of 
employment generation. In totality, climate change 
has brought livelihood and food crisis in North 
India. To anticipate this crisis, there is need 
of a comprehensive combat plan to deal with 
climate change. Inherent and planned adaptation 
strategies, i.e., change in cropping pattern, using 
modern biotechnology; shifting sowing dates and 
diversification in livelihood pattern are some of 
strategies to deal with climate change.
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Climate Variability and Rice Production in North India: A Review

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