Gaudin, AndrÃ©s

English

University of New Mexico

University of New Mexico
UNM Digital Repository
NotiSur Latin America Digital Beat (LADB)
8-31-2012
Venezuelan President Hugo ChÃ¡vez Confident as
Election Nears
AndrÃ©s Gaudin
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Recommended Citation
Gaudin, AndrÃ©s. "Venezuelan President Hugo ChÃ¡vez Confident as Election Nears." (2012). https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/
notisur/14085
LADB Article Id:  78728
ISSN:  1060-4189
©2011  The University of New Mexico,
Latin American & Iberian Institute
All rights reserved. Page 1 of 4
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez Confident as Election
Nears
by Andrés Gaudin
Category/Department:  Venezuela
Published:  2012-08-31
Thirteen years after Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez first took office in February 1999,
Venezuelans are poised to elect a new head of state for the 2013-2019 term.  On Oct. 7, nearly 19
million Venezuelans will cast their ballot for one of seven candidates, although only two have a
chance of being elected:  Chávez, who has won 12 of the 13 elections, plebiscites, and referendums
held during his 13 years in office, and Henrique Capriles Radonski, the candidate for the opposition
Mesa de Unidad Democrático MUD) coalition (NotiSur, Feb. 24, 2012). 
Amid enervating national polarization, polls show that Chávez will likely be re-elected by a wide
margin that some consultants estimate at 15 percentage points, while others say the margin could be
27 points.  Most, however, agree that Chávez will probably win by somewhere in the neighborhood
of 20 points. 
 Neither the governing party nor the opposition gives much credence to the polls.  They use them,
but everyone in Venezuela knows that the firms conducting the polls are as polarized—some say
contaminated—as society.  Election day is fast approaching; barring some unforeseen event, the
situation will not change radically. 
 Meanwhile, the candidates are trying to use ongoing events in their favor—including Venezuela's
incorporation as a full member of the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR)—which
seems to be a plus for Chávez.  The opposition, which for the first time will be united in facing a
politician with enormous communication skills and conviction, knows that it is not likely to have
another opportunity like this to end Chávez's leadership.
 Much of the campaigning has taken place outside Venezuela, not because the number of voters
living abroad is decisive but because the opposition has the support of the South American right,
which it trying to "help" Capriles.  But demonizing the Revolución Bolivariana from afar has not
been a good idea.  The gruesome rumor war regarding Chávez's health (NotiSur, April 13, 2012, and
June 1, 2012) has ended—he has undergone cancer surgery twice—and the domestic battle is now
focused on the high percentage—between 25% and 30%—of poll respondents who say that they
are neither committed to voting for Chávez nor committed to Capriles—the "ni-nis" or undecided
voters.
 Meanwhile, much of the opposition persists in efforts to generate a climate of distrust so that, in the
event of an eventual defeat, they can claim fraud.  They have done so in every election since 1999,
without success, but they persist.  The Organization of American States (OAS) and European Union
(EU) observer missions and the Carter Center, among others, have always vouched for the validity
of the elections and praised the automated voting system, which they describe as one of the most
modern and reliable in the world.
LADB Article Id:  78728
ISSN:  1060-4189
©2011  The University of New Mexico,
Latin American & Iberian Institute
All rights reserved. Page 2 of 4
 Paraguayan coup becomes campaign issue
Since June 22, when Paraguay's constitutional President Fernando Lugo was overthrown (NotiSur,
July 13, 2012), the Paraguayan rightist parties and the de facto government have tried to reach
out to Capriles, making outlandish accusations against Venezuela.  Five days after the coup, the
Paraguayan Congress declared Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro persona non grata
(NotiSur, Aug. 31, 2012) in response to his statements that the 270-minute impeachment that ousted
Lugo was "an abuse of democratic institutions." 
A day later, the always pro-coup Asunción daily ABC Color accused Maduro of having tried to
convince the Paraguayan military to take up arms to defend the constitutional government.  Then,
María Liz García, the defense minister of the de facto government, presented a short video—edited
and without sound—that supposedly showed the foreign minister walking down a hallway of the
Paraguayan government house alongside local officials and other regional ministers.  Maduro had
traveled to Paraguay together with his counterparts from the Unión de Naciones Suramericanas
(UNASUR) to try to head off the democratic rupture.
This effort, filled with the strongest invective against Chávez, backfired on Capriles.  The escalation
reached a climax on July 4.  That day, as by then seemed inevitable, Paraguay broke diplomatic
relations with Venezuela, which gave Chávez the opening to do what he does best—engage in a
hard-hitting debate. 
Earlier, Colombian Foreign Minister María Ángela Holguín had the magnanimity to come out in
defense of Maduro—she dismissed the allegations that he urged the military to oppose the coup—
and, in passing, fired some heavy ammunition at former President Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), a good
friend of Capriles—although at every opportunity, Capriles has tried to distance himself from the
Colombian ex-president. 
Holguín's gesture was unexpected and doubly helpful to Chávez, contrasting sharply with some of
Uribe's statements.  After sending wishes for success to the opposition and Capriles—a real lead
life jacket—Uribe said that, during his second term, he did not invade Venezuela militarily simply
"because I didn't have time." 
The Venezuelan government took advantage of this unfriendly exchange to complain that a group
of Paraguayan senators, the same ones who overthrew Lugo, has asked for US$12 million to
approve Venezuela's entry into MERCOSUR, on hold for four years precisely because the Paraguay
lawmakers refused to vote on the matter even though their counterparts in Argentina, Brazil, and
Uruguay had done so. 
On July 6, when the Venezuelan opposition had rushed to say that Chávez's allegations were a crude
invention, the conservative Brazilian daily O Globo verified, through Kennedy Alencar, one of its
most respected columnists, that diplomatic sources had confirmed the charge.
Popularity of social programs gives Chávez comfortable lead in polls
Chávez has never doubted the outcome of the Oct. 7 election.  He has always said he would win.  In
recent weeks, however, he has stressed the need for his campaign staff to step up their "face to face"
contact with the people.  Besides his charisma and the affection he has awakened in poorer sectors
of society, Chávez knows that support for his "social missions" is a definite asset in the election.  The
LADB Article Id:  78728
ISSN:  1060-4189
©2011  The University of New Mexico,
Latin American & Iberian Institute
All rights reserved. Page 3 of 4
social missions give people a right to food, health, and education and have been reinforced by the
recent "grand missions" covering employment, housing, and security. 
The missions are the centerpiece of the panoply of socioeconomic measures and laws enacted in the
past year, such as the law governing labor relations (Ley Orgánica del Trabajo), passed on May 1,
International Workers Day.  Other measures include broadening social security coverage to include
the poor, presenting a government plan regarding citizen security, and unveiling a new police
model that emphasizes human rights. 
"They are all measures that have a high social impact, which Chávez accompanies with a heavy dose
of political audacity: in place of a classic electoral campaign, he presents them with a document to
debate," said a correspondent with the Italian news agency ANSA.
Capriles also has his appeal, although his communications skills are a far cry from those of Chávez.
  He lacks charisma, and he has made the mistake of taking up some "Chavismo" themes, with the
aim of improving them, which most think is impossible, said election analyst Roberto Vásquez. 
Capriles hopes to win over undecided voters
Capriles is guided by self-proclaimed public-opinion experts.  The missions, perhaps the
government measure with the most support among the country's poor majority, are a case in point.
  He has tried to win over the "ni-ni" sector, which one pollster quoted by BBC Mundo and funded
by it said was made up "mostly of young, poor women, socially aware but more concerned with their
daily problems than with politics, who reject polarization and believe there is insecurity, who have
previously voted for Chávez or abstained, and who now do not know what to do."  With capturing
the support of this group as his goal, Capriles tries to use language that is rich and moving, like
Chávez's, but that [skill] cannot be acquired or bought, it is innate, said the expert quoted by the
British news agency.
The opposition candidate was, at age 25, the youngest deputy in Venezuela's history and even
became president of the Asamblea Legislativa (AL).  Later, as mayor of the municipality of Baruta,
in Caracas, and as governor of the state of Miranda (the second-largest state), he received good
marks for his administration.  Although of Jewish roots, Capriles is a devout Catholic.  His father
left him a business empire that includes construction, insurance, transportation, real estate, and,
most important, media companies (newspapers, magazines, radio, and television), an essential
tool at this stage of his public life.  From his mother, he received real estate enterprises and various
companies linked to the entertainment industry, making him owner of the largest national chain of
movie theaters.  He is, in short, one of the richest people in Venezuela. 
In 2002, Capriles was jailed for four months for involvement in the thwarted coup attempt against
Chávez and for having joined the armed civilian commando group that entered the Cuban Embassy,
painted graffiti on walls, broke furniture, and burned seven cars.  In court, Capriles said that he did
it "to prevent something worse from happening."  The Cuban diplomatic mission is in Baruta, and,
at the time of the attack, Capriles was the mayor. 
Capriles is not married and, at age 40, is seen as an enviable catch for eligible young women.   In
February, he became the candidate of the unified opposition when, in the MUD primaries, he beat
four other candidates who now support him in his campaign against the Revolución Bolivariana.
LADB Article Id:  78728
ISSN:  1060-4189
©2011  The University of New Mexico,
Latin American & Iberian Institute
All rights reserved. Page 4 of 4
-- End --


Venezuelan President Hugo ChÃ¡vez Confident as Election Nears

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Venezuelan President Hugo ChÃ¡vez Confident as Election Nears

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