Metabolite exchanges in microbial communities give rise to ecological interactions that govern ecosystem diversity and stability. It is unclear, however, how the rise of these interactions varies across metabolites and organisms. Here we address this question by integrating genome-scale models of metabolism with evolutionary game theory. Specifically, we use microbial fitness values estimated by metabolic models to infer evolutionarily stable interactions in multi-species microbial “games”. We first validate our approach using a well-characterized yeast cheater-cooperator system. We next perform over 80,000 in silico experiments to infer how metabolic interdependencies mediated by amino acid leakage in Escherichia coli vary across 189 amino acid pairs. While most pairs display shared patterns of inter-species interactions, multiple deviations are caused by pleiotropy and epistasis in metabolism. Furthermore, simulated invasion experiments reveal possible paths to obligate cross-feeding. Our study provides genomically driven insight into the rise of ecological interactions, with implications for microbiome research and synthetic ecology.We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Purchase Request No. HR0011515303, Contract No. HR0011-15-C-0091), the U.S. Department of Energy (Grants DE-SC0004962 and DE-SC0012627), the NIH (Grants 5R01DE024468 and R01GM121950), the national Science Foundation (Grants 1457695 and NSFOCE-BSF 1635070), MURI Grant W911NF-12-1-0390, the Human Frontiers Science Program (grant RGP0020/2016), and the Boston University Interdisciplinary Biomedical Research Office ARC grant on Systems Biology Approaches to Microbiome Research. We also thank Dr Kirill Korolev and members of the Segre Lab for their invaluable feedback on this work. (HR0011515303 - Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; HR0011-15-C-0091 - Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; DE-SC0004962 - U.S. Department of Energy; DE-SC0012627 - U.S. Department of Energy; 5R01DE024468 - NIH; R01GM121950 - NIH; 1457695 - national Science Foundation; NSFOCE-BSF 1635070 - national Science Foundation; W911NF-12-1-0390 - MURI; RGP0020/2016 - Human Frontiers Science Program; Boston University Interdisciplinary Biomedical Research Office ARC)Published versio
