Chatterjee, Abhishek

Morgan, Kristan

Oda, Tomohiro

Ott, Lesley E.

Poulter, Benjamin

Weir, Brad

English

NASA Technical Reports Server

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
A prototype for monitoring carbon flux 
anomalies in near real time using NASA’s 
GEOS system: progress and challenges
Lesley Ott1, Brad Weir1,2, Abhishek Chatterjee1,2, 
Benjamin Poulter1, Tomohiro Oda1,2, Kristan Morgan1,3
1NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
2Universities Space Research Association
3Science Systems and Applications, Inc.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20190034217 2020-03-11T14:45:21+00:00Z
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
GEOS CMS System Overview
• Satellite observations provide important constraints on 
carbon flux estimates
• Ocean color and NDVI information inform model-based 
estimates of ocean (NOBM) and land productivity (CASA-
GFED) while observations of fire radiative power, burned 
area, and nighttime lights support high-resolution fire (GFED, 
QFED) and fossil fuel (VIIRS) emission inventories
• Flux estimates also incorporate weather information from 
MERRA-2 to provide a physically consistent flux dataset
• Bottom-up fluxes are transported using NASA’s GEOS 
AGCM, providing high quality, high-resolution simulations of 
CO2 and CO
• By assimilating atmospheric CO2 from OCO-2 and GOSAT, 
the GEOS-based system also provides atmospheric carbon 
reanalyses and insights needed to refine flux estimates
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Limitations for near-real-time atmospheric monitoring
1. Availability of observationally constrained flux data
2. Availability of CO2 observations
End of year 1 +0-6 months +2-6 months
Remote sensing 
inputs available Run and QC 
offline flux model Run atmospheric 
model
End of year 2
Significant delays in 
processing 
decrease availability 
and reliability of 
bottom-up fluxes
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
1) Improving near-real-time flux estimates
Weir et al., 2019 in prep. for ERL
• LoFi flux package uses GEOS CMS bottom up fluxes and adds a 
land sink constrained by atmospheric growth rate (above)
• When year-specific flux and atmospheric data are not yet 
available:
• Climatological spatial distribution is used
• Flux trends extrapolated
• Sink magnitude incorporates seasonal forecast of growth rate
Annual average NBE Seasonal cycle NBE Mauna Loa Simulated CO2
Forecast fluxes succeed in reproducing 
background atmospheric mixing ratios 
providing support for assimilation of 
atmospheric obs.
Year-specific 
fluxes available
Forecast 
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
2) Availability of CO2 data improving, but latency of 1-3 
months remains
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/ https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/
NOAA NRT Obspack – West Branch Iowa
Provisional data for 2019
NASA OCO-2 Data – 20190831 
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Ability to simulate and forecast carbon weather in NRT
• GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-
CF) system produces global, 3D 
distributions of atmospheric 
composition and 5-day forecasts
• CO2 fluxes incorporate NRT biomass 
burning using MODIS fire radiative 
power +  LoFi ocean, land, and fossil 
fuel
• GEOS-CF also provides estimates of 
species like CO and NO2 that provide 
additional information that may be 
used for source attribution
https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/weather_prediction/GEOS-CF/
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
420
415
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405
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395
390
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Case study: GEOS-CF forecasts in support of ACT-America
6/20/19
GEOS-CF Replay at 500 m vs. 
Boundary Layer Aircraft Data
GEOS-CF Replay and Forecasts vs. Obs.
18      19              20                 21    22
CO2
CO
Observations
Replay
Day 1 Fcst
Day 2 Fcst
Day 3 Fcst
• Two day forecasts tend to 
predict frontal structures and 
gradients well (see CO)
• Lack of dynamic emissions 
can hurt skill for CO2 but 
mismatch provides valuable 
information into flux 
processes
CO2
CO
A53I-07 - Nikolay Balashov
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
2019 Agricultural anomalies after record floods
https://www.nass.usda.gov/http://www.fao.org/
201906 NDVI Anomaly USDA Illinois Corn Progress
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Disentangling flux and weather influences
OCO-2 XCO2 anomaly from 201906 shows the 
collective influence of weather and flux changes
Anomaly from GEOS run with LoFi fluxes 
represents weather changes + a small 
contribution from fires
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Disentangling flux and weather influences
Difference in anomalies highlights the role of flux 
anomalies over US., Europe
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Summary and future directions
• Data-driven modeling tools supported by CMS provide the capability 
to improve understanding of carbon flux changes as they happen
• Response to 2019 midwestern floods provides an example where 
an agricultural anomaly can be rapidly identified and analyzed
• Remaining challenges:
• Availability of CO2 data limits ability to estimate concentrations, 
fluxes with less than 2-3 month latency
• Progress in bottom-up modeling tools can help bridge the gap, 
but work needs to be done to incorporate NRT information
• CMS has a valuable role to play in understanding user needs  - who 
needs low latency concentration and flux data and what are their 
requirements? 


Prototype for Monitoring Carbon Flux Anomalies in near Real Time Using NASA's GEOS System: Progress and Challenges

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