Polish migrants are the largest non-UK born population in Scotland (56,000 in 2012). As EU citizens who are resident in Scotland, they are eligible to vote in the 18 September 2014 referendum on Scottish independence. Using a survey of 245 Polish migrants in Scotland we investigate their level of engagement with the Scottish referendum asking; do Polish migrants vote and where (Poland and/or UK)? Will they take part in the referendum? Will the outcome of the referendum have an impact on their migration or settlement plans in Scotland

McGhee, Derek

Pietka-Nykaza, Emilia

English

Southampton (e-Prints Soton)

www.cpc.ac.uk Improving our understanding of the key drivers and implications of population changePolish migrants are the largest non-UK born population in Scotland (56,000 in 2012). As EU citizens who are resident in Scotland, they are eligible to vote in the 18 September 2014 referendum on Scottish independence. Using a survey of 245 Polish migrants in Scotland we investigate their level of engagement with the Scottish referendum asking; do Polish migrants vote and where (Poland and/or UK)? Will they take part in the referendum? Will the outcome of the referendum have an impact on their migration or settlement plans in Scotland?Polish migrants in Scotland: voting behaviours and engagement in the Scottish independence referendum CPCcentre for population changeESRC Centre for Population Change l Briefing 20 l  August 2014Key Points•  Despite Poles having the right to participate and vote in both sub-national elections in the UK and national elections in Poland, most of those asked vote in one or the other, not both;•  84% of those surveyed stated that they would participate in the 18 September 2014 referendum;•  The uncertainty of Scotland and the UK’s future membership of the EU and Polish migrants’ residence rights in a potentially independent Scotland were significant issues for all participants; •   The majority of survey participants indicated that the outcome of the referendum will not have an impact on their settlement plans.IntroductionThe large increase in arrivals to Scotland from Poland following the EU accession marks a significant  shift  in  the  Scotland’s  migration profile. The recent population census shows that the Polish community appears to be one of the fastest growing migrant populations in Scotland, growing from 2,505 in 2001 to 55,231 in 2011 and reaching an estimated 56,000 in 2012.  As a consequence of the electoral and free movement rights in the EU, Poles are eligible to vote in the Scotland Independence Referendum and other sub-national elections including local and European parliament elections. However, despite Polish migrants being the largest non-UK born Polish migrants in Scotland: voting behaviours and engagement in the Scottish independence referendumESRC Centre for Population Change • Briefing 20population in Scotland, little is known about the extent to which they participate in political processes. In this briefing paper we will explore the level of engagement of Polish migrants in these political processes by examining their participation in previous local elections as well as their engagement and attitudes with regards to voting in the Scottish independence referendum to be held in September 2014.   The study The findings of this paper are drawn from 245 responses to an online survey with Polish migrant residents in Scotland. The survey questionnaire was distributed through diverse channels including Polish community organisations, Polish businesses and Polish online networks across Scotland. Participants of the online survey  were  young  (54.4%  were  age  35  or  below) and well educated (60.3% had a Bachelor’s degree or above). The vast majority of survey participants were employed (84%), were living in Scotland for at least 7 years (60.7%) and were planning to stay and live in Scotland (61%). Political participation of Polish migrants in ScotlandPolish migrants, like other EU migrants, have relevant stakes in more than one polity. Poles have Polish citizenship with expatriate voting rights in national and presidential elections in Poland and, as EU citizens, they have sub-national (local and European Parliament) election voting rights in Scotland. In general,  the  majority  (64.9%)  of  participants  in  our survey did participate in political elections (see Table 1).The dominant form of voting behaviour among survey participants was to participate and vote exclusively in Table 1 – Voting behavioursTable	 ﾠ1	 ﾠ–	 ﾠVoting	 ﾠbehaviours	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠTable	 ﾠ2	 ﾠ–	 ﾠVoting	 ﾠintentions	 ﾠby	 ﾠconfidence	 ﾠin	 ﾠan	 ﾠindependent	 ﾠScotland	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠTable	 ﾠ3	 ﾠ–	 ﾠLength of residence of survey participants	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠPassive	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(not	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠin	 ﾠPoland	 ﾠand	 ﾠScotland)	 ﾠExclusive	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(votes	 ﾠeither	 ﾠin	 ﾠPolish	 ﾠor	 ﾠScottish	 ﾠelection)	 ﾠOverlapping	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(votes	 ﾠin	 ﾠPolish	 ﾠand	 ﾠScottish	 ﾠelections)	 ﾠ86	 ﾠ(35.10%)	 ﾠ 121	 ﾠ(49.40%)	 ﾠ 38	 ﾠ(15.50%)	 ﾠ	 ﾠVery	 ﾠconfident	 ﾠQuite	 ﾠconfident	 ﾠQuite	 ﾠworried	 ﾠVery	 ﾠworried	 ﾠYes	 ﾠ 24	 ﾠ(92.3%)	 ﾠ 28	 ﾠ(73.7%)	 ﾠ 5	 ﾠ(6.2%)	 ﾠ 2	 ﾠ(4.7%)	 ﾠNo	 ﾠ 2	 ﾠ(7.7%)	 ﾠ 10	 ﾠ(26.3%)	 ﾠ 76	 ﾠ	 ﾠ(93.8%)	 ﾠ 41	 ﾠ(95.3%)	 ﾠTotal	 ﾠ(100%)	 ﾠ26	 ﾠ 38	 ﾠ 81	 ﾠ 43	 ﾠLength	 ﾠof	 ﾠresidence	 ﾠ%	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠparticipants	 ﾠ1-ﾭ‐2	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 10.40%	 ﾠ3-ﾭ‐4	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 10.90%	 ﾠ5-ﾭ‐6	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 18%	 ﾠ6-ﾭ‐7	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 38.50%	 ﾠ9-ﾭ‐10	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 22.20%	 ﾠScottish sub-national or Polish presidential elections (49.4%). Despite having multiple voting rights, only a minority  of  survey  participants  (15.5%)  were  active citizens in more than one polity. We found a correlation between the length of residence and Polish migrants’ exclusive participation in Scottish sub-national elections; 95% of the survey participants who voted only in Scottish elections had lived in Scotland for at least 5 years. The majority (75.1%) of survey participants indicated that they have an interest in what is going on in Scottish politics and 84.4% of participants said that they were registered with the Scottish Registration Office at their current address. The turnout of survey participants in Scottish sub-national election was 41% and  they  mainly  voted  for  SNP  (40.9%)  or  Labour Party (30.7%).Attitudes and engagement in the Scottish referendumAlmost  all  survey  participants  (98.7%)  were  aware of the Scottish independence referendum and had discussed it with their friends (32.5%), work colleagues (28.5%) and family (27.1%). As well as high awareness, 85% of survey participants declared that it is likely or very likely that they will vote in the referendum.  The  findings  show  that  one  of  the  main  factors influencing participants’ Yes or No vote will be whether they felt confident about the future of an independent Scotland  (see  Table  2).  The  majority  of  survey participants  (95.3%)  who  indicated  that  they  had concerns  about  Scotland’s  future  would  vote  ‘No’, comparing to those participants who were very confident  about  an  independent  Scotland’s  future (92.3%) and would vote ‘Yes’. Table 2 – Voting intentions by confidence in an independent ScotlandTable	 ﾠ1	 ﾠ–	 ﾠVoting	 ﾠbehaviours	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠTable	 ﾠ2	 ﾠ–	 ﾠVoting	 ﾠintentions	 ﾠby	 ﾠconfidence	 ﾠin	 ﾠan	 ﾠindependent	 ﾠScotland	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠTable	 ﾠ3	 ﾠ–	 ﾠLength of residence of survey participants	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠPassive	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(not	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠin	 ﾠPoland	 ﾠand	 ﾠScotland)	 ﾠExclusive	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(votes	 ﾠeither	 ﾠin	 ﾠPolish	 ﾠor	 ﾠScottish	 ﾠelection)	 ﾠOverlapping	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(votes	 ﾠin	 ﾠPolish	 ﾠand	 ﾠScottish	 ﾠelections)	 ﾠ86	 ﾠ(35.10%)	 ﾠ 121	 ﾠ(49.40%)	 ﾠ 38	 ﾠ(15.50%)	 ﾠ	 ﾠVery	 ﾠconfident	 ﾠQuite	 ﾠconfident	 ﾠQuite	 ﾠworried	 ﾠVery	 ﾠworried	 ﾠYes	 ﾠ 24	 ﾠ(92.3%)	 ﾠ 28	 ﾠ(73.7%)	 ﾠ 5	 ﾠ(6.2%)	 ﾠ 2	 ﾠ(4.7%)	 ﾠNo	 ﾠ 2	 ﾠ(7.7%)	 ﾠ 10	 ﾠ(26.3%)	 ﾠ 76	 ﾠ	 ﾠ(93.8%)	 ﾠ 41	 ﾠ(95.3%)	 ﾠTotal	 ﾠ(100%)	 ﾠ26	 ﾠ 38	 ﾠ 81	 ﾠ 43	 ﾠLength	 ﾠof	 ﾠresidence	 ﾠ%	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠparticipants	 ﾠ1-ﾭ‐2	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 10.40%	 ﾠ3-ﾭ‐4	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 10.90%	 ﾠ5-ﾭ‐6	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 18%	 ﾠ6-ﾭ‐7	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 38.50%	 ﾠ9-ﾭ‐10	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 22.20%	 ﾠESRC Centre for Population Change • Briefing 20As EU membership guarantees Poles, as EU citizens, their political and free movement rights, the disruption of Scotland’s and the UK’s continuing EU membership (and thus Poles’ rights to residence in Scotland) was particularly  important  for  survey  participants.  The need  for  clarification  and  certainty  in  light  of  the uncertainty of the outcome of the referendum were therefore  the  main  concerns  for  the  vast  majority of survey participants. Other concerns related to uncertainty with regard to the Scottish economy, in particular the future currency, prices of properties or stability of the labour market.Political changes and Polish migrants settlement practicesThe majority of survey participants (78.7%) were long-term residents and were living in Scotland for at least 5 years. Despite being concerned about Scotland’s future, the majority of survey participants (68%) who indicated that they were concerned (very worried or worried) about  Scotland’s  future  also  pointed  out  that  the outcome of referendum will not have an impact on their migration or settlement plans. The reasons they cite are that they have achieved a better quality of life and standard of living in Scotland. Instead, survey participants indicated that their migration or settlement plans were more linked to their employment prospects and family life in Scotland.Table 3 – Length of residence of survey participantsTable	 ﾠ1	 ﾠ–	 ﾠVoting	 ﾠbehaviours	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠTable	 ﾠ2	 ﾠ–	 ﾠVoting	 ﾠintentions	 ﾠby	 ﾠconfidence	 ﾠin	 ﾠan	 ﾠindependent	 ﾠScotland	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠTable	 ﾠ3	 ﾠ–	 ﾠLength of residence of survey participants	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠ	 ﾠSource:	 ﾠAuthors’	 ﾠanalysis	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠdata,	 ﾠ2014	 ﾠ	 ﾠPassive	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(not	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠin	 ﾠPoland	 ﾠand	 ﾠScotland)	 ﾠExclusive	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(votes	 ﾠeither	 ﾠin	 ﾠPolish	 ﾠor	 ﾠScottish	 ﾠelection)	 ﾠOverlapping	 ﾠvoting	 ﾠbehaviour	 ﾠ(votes	 ﾠin	 ﾠPolish	 ﾠand	 ﾠScottish	 ﾠelections)	 ﾠ86	 ﾠ(35.10%)	 ﾠ 121	 ﾠ(49.40%)	 ﾠ 38	 ﾠ(15.50%)	 ﾠ	 ﾠVery	 ﾠconfident	 ﾠQuite	 ﾠconfident	 ﾠQuite	 ﾠworried	 ﾠVery	 ﾠworried	 ﾠYes	 ﾠ 24	 ﾠ(92.3%)	 ﾠ 28	 ﾠ(73.7%)	 ﾠ 5	 ﾠ(6.2%)	 ﾠ 2	 ﾠ(4.7%)	 ﾠNo	 ﾠ 2	 ﾠ(7.7%)	 ﾠ 10	 ﾠ(26.3%)	 ﾠ 76	 ﾠ	 ﾠ(93.8%)	 ﾠ 41	 ﾠ(95.3%)	 ﾠTotal	 ﾠ(100%)	 ﾠ26	 ﾠ 38	 ﾠ 81	 ﾠ 43	 ﾠLength	 ﾠof	 ﾠresidence	 ﾠ%	 ﾠof	 ﾠsurvey	 ﾠparticipants	 ﾠ1-ﾭ‐2	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 10.40%	 ﾠ3-ﾭ‐4	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 10.90%	 ﾠ5-ﾭ‐6	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 18%	 ﾠ6-ﾭ‐7	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 38.50%	 ﾠ9-ﾭ‐10	 ﾠyears	 ﾠ 22.20%	 ﾠSummary and policy implications:The study indicates that the Scottish independence referendum is a very salient issue among survey participants. While less than half of the survey participants took part in other sub-national elections (that is, local and European Parliament elections) in Scotland, the vast majority of participants indicated that they would vote in the Scottish independence referendum. Survey participants’ intentions to vote in the referendum were linked to the inclusive political opportunity structure in Scotland with regard to both policies and public attitudes towards migration. The  Scottish  independence  referendum  is  an unprecedented event amongst established EU member  states.  The  referendum  may  lead  to  the break up of the UK and creation of new states that could in turn, necessitate the designation of the residence rights to EU migrants living in Scotland. The majority of Polish migrants who participated in the survey declared that they planned to stay and live in Scotland regardless of their concerns about the outcome of referendum. This suggests that Polish migrants in Scotland are, and will become a long-term settled population in Scotland. Polish migrants in Scotland: voting behaviours and engagement in the Scottish independence referendumAuthorsEmilia Pietka-Nykaza(University of Southampton, CPC)Derek McGhee (University of Southampton, CPC)Edited by Teresa McGowan(University of Southampton, CPC)ESRC Centre for Population ChangeBuilding 58Faculty of Social and Human SciencesUniversity of SouthamptonSO17 1BJOffice: +44(0)2380592579www.cpc.ac.uk

Polish migrants in Scotland: voting behaviours and engagement in the Scottish independence referendum

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