What is the likely impact of Covid-19 on fertility in the UK?

Abstract

Predicting future numbers of births is important for planning, for example, for maternity services, schools, and financial commitments through the welfare system. The Covid-19 pandemic has made it much harder to predict human behaviour, making it difficult to accurately estimate how the pandemic will affect future fertility rates. This policy briefing examines the most recent data on live births to determine what the impact of Covid-19 has been on fertility in the countries of the UK, and then summarises findings from some scenario-based projections of fertility between 2021 and 2023.Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, birth rates in the UK had already declined to historically low levels. Using scenarios grounded in historical evidence, the majority of the outcomes we present in this policy briefing also predict a future short-term decline in fertility rates. This policy briefing provides an overview of the key findings of a Population, Space and Place article available at https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.254