reportThe upcoming round of Defense Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) is threatening the existence of Hill Air Force Base (Hill AFB). The Department of Defense is aggressively approaching this round of BRAC in its attempt to eliminate 20% to 25% of current capacity. The purpose of this study is to assess the economic, demographic and fiscal impacts of closing Hill AFB on the state of Utah and on the Davis/Weber region. These impacts, which have been generated using the REMI model, project the changes in employment, population, earnings, income and business activity that result from closing Hill AFB. Hill AFB is located in northern Utah approximately 30 miles north of Salt Lake City and eight miles south of Ogden. The base currently covers almost 6,700 acres and stretches across two counties-Davis and Weber. Hill has had a presence in Utah since 1920 when the War Department established the Ogden Arsenal Army Reserve Depot in the area now occupied by the northwestern portion of Hill AFB. Over time, Hill's missions have changed and expanded. Today, the missions of Hill AFB encompass supply and repair of aircraft and missile parts, including munitions storage and handling. The base is one of three air logistics centers in the USAF Materiel Command, serving as home to the Ogden Air Logistics Center which provides worldwide engineering and logistics management for the F-16, A-10, Minuteman III and Peacekeeper Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. Hill AFB has been the largest component of Utah's defense sector, and one of the largest employers in the state for decades. Long established as an engine of economic growth, Hill AFB directly pumps more than 1.0billionintoUtah′seconomyeachyear.ThedirectoperationsincludeaUtahpayrollof962.2 million, direct employment of about 20,000 workers and local purchases totaling 152.9million.1In2003,Utah′sdefenseindustry(primarilyHillAFB)wasamainstaythathelpedsteadytheUtaheconomy.Clearly,Hill′seconomiccontributionsaresubstantialandanimportantsourceofeconomicactivityinthestateofUtah.TheactualprobabilityofthecompleteclosureofHillAFBisunknown.Apartialclosurescenariothatretainssomeofthemissionsonthebasewhileeliminatingothersisquitepossiblyamorelikelyoutcome.Attherequestoftheresearchsponsors,onlythefullclosureofthebasehasbeenmodeledhere.KeyFindingsTheinformationpresentedhereassumesaphasedshutdownofHillAFBthatbeginsin2006andiscompletedin2008.Formostoftheanalysis,theimpactsarepresentedfor2009and2020.Theyear2009wasselectedtocapturethefullimpactofthebaseclosureafterallmilitarypersonnelandtheirdependentsarerealignedbutbeforemarketadjustmentsbegin.Theyear2020waschosentoshowthelong−term,permanentimpactaftermarketsadjusttotheclosureofHill.StatewideImpacts(Financialprojectionsareinconstant2001dollars)Short−TermImpacts•In2009,theimpactofclosingHillAFBwillbealossof47,400jobs,anannualdeclineof2.35 billion in earnings and 2.29billioninpersonalincome.Hill′sclosureshrinksthestate′seconomyby3.58 billion (a decline of 2.6% from the projected baseline). The annual loss of state tax revenue will be 192.4million.•Theemploymentimpact,whileconsiderable,doesnotresultinlarge−scaleunemployment.Employmentgrowthstatewidewillcontinueasothersectorsoftheeconomycreatejobs.•ThepopulationimpactofclosingHillAFBwillbe31,000fewerpeoplelivinginthestatethanifHillremainedinoperation.Thepopulationimpactincludesabout7,600schoolagechildren,orabout1.3542 in 2009; this means that each person in Utah will have, on average, $542 less to spend than if Hill AFB remained in operation