The entire Andalusian coastline must deal with the effects of seasonality. Both local and regional administrations as well as tourism business owners are currently confronting this problem by implementing remedial measures to reduce seasonal concentration with the relentless pursuit of new formulas for product diversification. This can be corroborated by the recent observed coordination between the public administration and the private sector to address this problem. Yet, for coordination to work efficiently, it needs to have both the knowledge as well as the right tools to measure seasonality.
The methodology used in this work is proposed as a control and monitoring measure which tourism managers may use in destinations with a high seasonal concentration. Specifically, it has been applied in the Andalusian coastline, characterised by its high seasonality in the summer months, with the main purpose of quantitatively checking whether certain tourist segments can help reduce tourism seasonality. The additive decomposition of the Gini index provides information about the contribution of each tourist segment to the total seasonal concentration. Furthermore, by obtaining the measures of the relative marginal effects (RME) it is possible to identify to what extent a particular tourist segment can contribute in the reduction of seasonal concentration on the Andalusian coastline.
The results of this work can contribute to a deeper understanding of seasonality on the Andalusian coastline. It will also provide tourism managers with additional information about what type of tourists they should direct their catchment policies, as long as their purpose is to reduce the seasonality in a tourist destination.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. Spain.           Programa de FPU del Ministerio de Educación. Spain

Cisneros-Martínez, José David

Fernández-Morales, Antonio

Repositorio Institucional Universidad de Málaga

1	  	  Seasonal  concentration  of  tourism  on  the  Andalusian  coastline      José  David  Cisneros-­‐‑Martínez  Facultad  de  Turismo  Universidad  de  Málaga,  Spain  E-­‐‑mail:  joscismar@uma.es    Supervisor:  Antonio  Fernández-­‐‑Morales  Facultad  de  Ciencias  Económicas  y  Empresariales  Universidad  de  Málaga,  Spain  E-­‐‑mail:  afdez@uma.es      ABSTRACT  Seasonality   is   a   phenomenon   that   affects   many   economical   activities   but   undoubtedly,   it   affects  tourism  more  naturally.  Moore   (1989)  defined  seasonality  as   the  displacements  produced   in  a  given  period,   during   a   specific   time   of   the   year,   and   each   occurring   similarly.   The   effects   of   tourism  seasonality  are  related  to  several  social,  labour  and  weather  factors,  for  this  reason,  tourism  managers  have  difficulties  in  establishing  appropriate  policies  to  reduce  their  impact.    The  main  problems  caused  by  the  effects  of  seasonality  are  the  under-­‐‑use  of  tourism  facilities  during  low  season,  and  vice  versa,   their  maximum  occupancy  at   full   capacity  during   the  high  season.  This  fact   is   explained   by   the   concentration   of   touristic   flow   during   certain   periods   of   the   year,   which  represents   a   temporary   mismatch   between   the   supply   and   demand   of   tourism.   This   has   negative  consequences   that   result   in   an   instability   that   causes   various   problems   that   business   owners   and  tourism  managers  have   to   contend  with   such  as  unstable   employment,   limits  on   the  profitability  of  investments,   a   mismatch   in   load   capacity,   fluctuation   of   prices,   environmental   degradation,   and  various  socio-­‐‑cultural  effects  among  visitors  and  residents  in  a  given  destination.  The   entire   Andalusian   coastline   must   deal   with   the   effects   of   seasonality.   Both   local   and   regional  administrations   as   well   as   tourism   business   owners   are   currently   confronting   this   problem   by  implementing  remedial  measures  to  reduce  seasonal  concentration  with  the  relentless  pursuit  of  new  formulas   for   product   diversification.   This   can   be   corroborated   by   the   recent   observed   coordination  between   the   public   administration   and   the   private   sector   to   address   this   problem.   Yet,   for  coordination   to  work   efficiently,   it   needs   to   have   both   the   knowledge   as  well   as   the   right   tools   to  measure  seasonality.  The   widespread   acceptance   of   seasonality   as   an   inevitable   trait   within   the   tourist   sector   has   been  accompanied  by  a  clear   lack  of  research  (Allcock,  1994).  Traditional   tools,  such  as  seasonal  variation  indexes   or   the   undecomposed   Gini   index,   are   focused   on   reproducing   representative   models   of  seasonality,   reaching   general   conclusions   about   the   nationality   of   the   most   favourable   tourists   for  reducing  seasonality.  However,  these  traditional  tools  do  not  allow  one  to  know  what  type  of  tourist  is   truly   favourable   for   the   seasonal   adjustment   of   a  destination.  Therefore,  when   tourism  managers  implement  measures  to  reduce  seasonality,  they  find  it  difficult  to  identify  whether  there  is  any  type  of  tourists  that  can  contribute  significantly  to  the  reduction  of  seasonality  at  a  destination,  and  these  (potential)  tourists  pass  unnoticed  due  to  the  lack  of  a  methodology  that  could  identify  them.  2	  	  The  methodology  used  in  this  thesis  is  proposed  as  a  control  and  monitoring  measure  which  tourism  managers  may  use  in  destinations  with  a  high  seasonal  concentration.  Specifically,  it  has  been  applied  in   the   Andalusian   coastline,   characterised   by   its   high   seasonality   in   the   summer  months,   with   the  main   purpose   of   quantitatively   checking  whether   certain   tourist   segments   can   help   reduce   tourism  seasonality.   The   additive   decomposition   of   the   Gini   index   will   provide   information   about   the  contribution  of  each  tourist  segment  to  the  total  seasonal  concentration.  Furthermore,  by  obtaining  the  measures  of   the   relative  marginal   effects   (RME)   it   is  possible   to   identify   to  what   extent   a  particular  tourist  segment  can  contribute  in  the  reduction  of  seasonal  concentration  on  the  Andalusian  coastline.  Likewise,  analysing  the  evolution  of  RMEs  throughout  the  period  of  study,  especially  in  the  last  year  analysed,  tourism  managers  could  tailor  tourism  policies  designed  to  alleviate  seasonal  concentration  annually,   anticipating   each   year   how   it   will   contribute   to   an   increase   of   a   type   of   tourist   in   the  reduction  of  the  overall  Gini  index  that  had  previously  been  used  to  measure  the  degree  of  seasonal  concentration.    The  Gini  index  is  a  measure  that  has  traditionally  been  used  to  measure  the  concentration  of  wealth  in  a  particular   country  or  area,  but  also   in  measuring   the   seasonal   concentration  of   tourism   (Cuccia  &  Rizzo,   2011;   De   Cantis,   Ferrante   &   Vaccina,   2011;   Fernández-­‐‑Morales   &   Mayorga   Toledano,   2008;  Halpern,   2011;   Lundtorp,   2001;  Martín  Martín,   Jiménez  Aguilera,  &  Molina  Moreno,   2014;   Rosselló  Nadal,  Riera  Font  &  Sansó  Rosselló,  2004;  Sutcliffe  &  Sinclair,  1980;  Tsitouras,  2004;  Yacoumis,  1980).  Furthermore,   the   additive   decomposition   of   the   Gini   index   was   first   used   in   the   area   of   tourism  research   to  measure   the   concentration  of   hotel   demand  on   the  Costa  del   Sol   (Fernández-­‐‑Morales  &  Mayorga   Toledano,   2008).   Later,   it   was   used   to   investigate   the   seasonal   concentration   demand   of  Spanish  airports  passengers.  (Halpern,  2011).    We  use  the  additive  decomposition  proposed  by  Lerman  and  Yitzaki´s  (1985).  This  decomposition,  as  pointed   out   by   Fernández-­‐‑Morales   and   Mayorga-­‐‑Toledano   (2008),   facilitates   the   estimation   of   the  marginal  effects  produced  by  a  given  variation  in  some  of  the  components  analysed  in  the  overall  Gini  index.  For  a  monthly  series  with  K  additive  components  Y  =  Y1  +  Y2  +   ·∙·∙·∙  +  YK,   the  relative  marginal  effect   (RME)   quantifies,   in   relative   terms,   how  much   the   overall   Gini   index   increases   or   decreases  when  a  small  relative  increase   ke   (equally  distributed  throughout  the  year)  occurs  in  component  k.  It  can  be  calculated  as  follows:    € RMEk =∂G∂ek1G = SkRkGkG −1⎛ ⎝ ⎜ ⎞ ⎠ ⎟                                                                                                                                   (1)  where  Gk  is  the  annual  Gini   index  of  k,  Sk   is  the  annual  participation  of  Yk  in  the  annual  value  of  Y,  and  Rk  represents  the  Gini  correlation  between  Yk  and  Y.  This  decomposition  can  be  a  very  useful  tool  for  tourism  managers  who  establish  measures  to  reduce  seasonality  (Cisneros-­‐‑Martínez  &  Fernández-­‐‑Morales,  2013).  In   a   first   application,   the   impact  of   seasonality  on   the  Andalusian   coastline  was  analysed  using   the  travellers   staying   in   hotels   of   different   categories   in   all   the   coasts   of   Andalusia   as   unit   of  measurement,   distinguishing   between   domestic   and   foreigners.   These   data   came   from   the  monthly  variables   between   January   1999   and   December   2011   of   the   Hotel   Occupancy   Survey   ‘Encuesta   de  Ocupación  Hotelera’  provided  by   the   (National  Statistics   Institute   ‘Instituto  Nacional  de  Estadística’  [INE],  2011).  This  choice  was  motivated  by  the  predominance  of  the  hotel  as  the  most  relevant  type  of        demand  for  tourist  accommodation  on  the  Andalusian  coastline.  In  2011,  85,7%  of  tourists  who  visited  this   coastline  destination,   stayed   in  hotels   (INE,  2011).  Furthermore,   to   identify  cultural   tourists,  we  raised  the  hypothesis   that   these  travellers  could  be  grouped  into  tourist  segments  according  to  their  main   travel   motivation:   sun   and   sand   segment   (weather   and   beach);   cultural   segment   (popular  3	  	  festivals  and  folklore,  and  visiting  monuments)  and  other  segments  (prices,  nature  and  rural  tourism,  visiting  family  and  friends,  sports,  etc.).  These  data  were  provided  by  the  headquarters  of  the  public  company  Turismo  Andaluz  (Sistema  de  Análisis  y  Estadísticas  del  Turismo  en  Andalucía,  2011).  During  the  first  application  of  the  methodology,  which  is  the  first  part  of  this  thesis,  it  was  found  that  seasonal   patterns   and   the   consequent   degree   of   seasonal   concentration   in   the   analysed   segments  differed   significantly   when   they   were   studied   with   a   higher   level   of   disaggregation,   showing   that  using   an   adequate   level   of   disaggregation   is   essential   to   the   approach   taken   with   policies   against  seasonality.  Specifically,  tourists  were  classified  by  origin  (domestic  and  foreign),  by  tourist  segment  (sun   and   sand,   cultural   and   other   segments)   and   by   coastal   area   visited.   As   a   result,   the   cultural  segment  was  the  most  favourable  for  deseasonalisation,  especially  within  domestic  tourists,  since  with  foreigners   the   same   deseasonalising   effect   was   not   present   in   all   the   coasts   analysed   (Cisneros-­‐‑Martínez  &  Fernández-­‐‑Morales,  2013).  In  a  second  application,  which  we  are  investigating  at  present  and  will  also  be  an  integral  part  of  this  thesis,  we  are  studying  the  impact  of  seasonality  in  the  Andalusian  coastline,  but  in  this  case,  we  are  analysing   the   passengers   arriving   at   Andalusian   airport   and   we   are   distinguishing   domestic   and  foreigners  passengers.  These  data  come   from  the  available  monthly  series  provided  by   the   (Spanish  Airports   and  Air  Navigation   'ʹSpanish  Airports  Air  Navigation'ʹ   [AENA],   2013).   The   selection   of   the  passenger  as  a  unit  of  measure  of  seasonal  concentration  has  been  considered  appropriate  since  81%  of   foreign   and   16.1%   of   domestic   tourists   visiting  Andalucía   in   2012,   used   the   plane   as   a  mode   of  transport.   Moreover,   it   has   been   estimated   that   in   2012   about   13.1   million   tourists   visited   the  Andalusian   coastline,   constituting   60%   of   the   tourists   visiting   Andalucía   (Consejería   de   Turismo,  Comercio  y  Deporte  [CTCYD],  2012).  In   this   second  application,  we  are  also  analysing  whether   the   low-­‐‑cost  airlines  can  contribute   to   the  reduction  of  seasonal  concentration  on  the  Andalusian  coastline.  For  the  identification  of  the  low  cost-­‐‑airlines,  we  have  adopted  the  criteria  provided  by  the  Annual  Reports  of  Low  Cost  Airlines  ‘Informes  Anuales   de   Compañías   de   Bajo   Coste’   developed   since   2003   by   the   (Institute   of   Tourism   Studies  ‘Instituto   de   Estudios   Turísticos’   [IET],   2013).   In   2012,   76.7%   of   passengers   visiting  Andalucía   used  low-­‐‑cost  airlines;  while,  78%  of  foreign  tourists  visiting  the  coast  of  Andalusia  used  a  plane  as  a  means  of   transport   (CTCYD,   2012).   Therefore,  we   consider   the  passengers  who  use   low-­‐‑cost   airlines   as   an  important   segment   of   tourists   to   analyse   the   impact   they   have   on   seasonal   concentration   on   this  coastline.  This  work  also  uses  an  appropriate  level  of  disaggregation,  classifying  passengers  by  origin  (domestic  and  foreign),  by  type  of  airline  used  (traditional  and  low-­‐‑cost)  and  by  airport  used.  The   expected   results   of   this   thesis   can   contribute   to   a   deeper   understanding   of   seasonality   on   the  Andalusian  coastline.  It  will  also  provide  tourism  managers  with  additional  information  about  what  type  of   tourists   they  should  direct   their  catchment  policies,  as   long  as  their  purpose   is   to  reduce  the  seasonality  in  a  tourist  destination.    Grants     Programa  de  FPU  del 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Seasonal concentration of tourism on the Andalusian coastline

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