Clappier, A. (Alain)

Madrazo, J. (Jessie)

English

univOAK

Scenario of Energy Transition for Cuba
Preliminary results
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A. Clappier and J. Madrazo
R4D project between Swiss and Cuba
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Effective Methodology for the Assessment of Integrated Energy Strategies
It aims at designing a novel integrated assessment methodology for energy strategies, combining process system
design methods with emission and air quality models.
This project is about:
Current Demand and Resources
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Electricity
Residential and 
industries
Transport
Imported fossil 
fuels
Biomass
DemandResources
20%
80%
0.5%
8.5%
91%
50%
41%
2015
9%
Fossil fuels
Solar & Wind
Future Demand (2030)
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Increase of the demand
Future Demand
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Increase of the energy efficiency
2006: Cuban energy revolution starts
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)
• Replace the incandescent bulbs 
by low consumption bulb
• Replace old refrigerators with 
newer ones
• Air conditioning systems ?
Future Demand (2030)
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Increase of the energy efficiency
Electricity
Residential and 
industries
Transport
Electricity
Transport, 
residential and 
industries
Electricity
Residential and 
industries
Transport
+10% of the 
electricity 
demand
-10% of the total energy demand
2015 2030
Only Electric Vehicles
2030
No Electric Vehicles
Potentials
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+ solar panel: enough to fulfil 100 times the demand in average per year
Criterias to Compare the Different Options
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➢ Cost
➢ Energy security
➢ Sustainability
➢ Air quality
Decrease energy importations
Decrease fossil fuel consumption
Decrease combustions
Costs
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Introduction of Solar & Wind Intermittent 
Resources into the Energy Mix
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In average over the year, more you introduce solar and wind energy less you use other resources 
Introduction of Solar & Wind Intermittent 
Resources into the Energy Mix
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The hourly capacity of non-intermittent energy production start to decrease only when an important 
amount intermittent energy is used
Introduction of Solar & Wind Intermittent 
Resources into the Energy Mix
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Three kind of situations can be considered with regards to the energy storage needed:
No storage Low storage Intermittent only
Three Kind of Possible Scenarios
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No storage
Low storage
Intermittent only
100% 
Wind
100% 
Solar
75% Wind -25% Solar
No EV EV only
No storage 45% -4% -  1
Low storage 100% 2% 6%
Intermittent only 100% 1 13% 16%
Energy Security Sustainability
Air Quality
Storage
Three Kind of Possible Scenarios
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2.5%
15.5%
91%
45%
37%
18%
Imported 
fossil fuels
Biomass
Fossil fuels
Solar & Wind
No storage Low storage
47.5%
15.5%
37%
63%
Biomass
Solar & 
Wind
Fossil fuels
100%
Solar & 
Wind
Intermittent only
Conclusions
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Demand
❑ Residential: Efficiency of air conditioning systems ?
❑ Transport: Change to EV increase of 10% the electric demand 
but reduce of 10% the total energy demand 
Resources
❑ No storage: worth energy security, sustainability and air quality but no storage
❑ Low storage: full energy security, medium sustainability, air quality and storage
❑ Intermittent only: full energy security, full sustainability, best air quality but need storage
in terms of energy resources only
Muchias gracias !
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Energy Consumption for Transport
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Scenarios of energy transition for Cuba

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Scenarios of energy transition for Cuba

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