Belalcazar, L. C.

Clappier, A. (Alain)

Guevara Luna, M. (Marco Andres)

Madrazo, J.

English

univOAK

Cuban’s Energy Strategy into 2030:
General Design Features towards a 
Sustainable Transition
1
A. Clappier, J. Madrazo, M. Guevara, L. C. Belalcazar
Why Cuba?
2
Cuba is an Island under Embargo
1959: The Cuban socialist revolution succeeds.
The American trade embargo and the support of Soviet Union are set up.
1991: Soviet subsidies and trade exchanges are stopped.
In 4 years, the energy consumption has fallen by more than 40%, GDP by 35%, industrial 
production by 80% and foreign trade by 75%. 
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Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)
40%
What are the Embargo Implications ?
3
Transport sector Residential sector
The Cuban inhabitants had to deeply change their life style to adapt to the new conditions ,
in all sectors of activity.
What are the Embargo Implications ?
4
Obsolete technologies generate environmental problems: example of air quality
Slow renewal of technologies
Vehicles Refineries
Air Quality Study
5
Air Quality Study: Emissions
6
Stacks
Emissions from industrial and energy sectors
The emission factors for the industries had already been estimated using measures by the 
Cuban Ministry of Energy (Cubaenergia).
Air Quality Study: Emissions
7
Emissions from the transport sector
Measurements of 
concentrations Traffic counting
tC0
t
v
v
t
v
tt CeNDC 0+=
t
v
t ND
ve
tC
Bulk emission factors
1’000’000 US$
15’000 US$
Emission factors for vehicles were not estimated using measurements.
A measurement campaign have ben organized in the framework of our
project.
Belalcazar, L., C., O. Fuhrer, M. D. Ho, E. Zarate and A. Clappier, 2009: Estimation of road
traffic emission factors from a long term tracer study, Atmos. Environ., 43, 5830-5837.
Air Quality Study: Emissions
2. Principal Component 
Regression  (PCR) instead of
Multi Linear Regression (MLR)
8
1. Identification of time-averaging
Emissions 
(mg/km)
Std. Dev 
95% Confid
Emis. 
(mg/km/pers)
Concent
. (μ/m3)
Motorcycles 111.8 2.7 55.9 4.4
Modern vehicles 91.3 11.2 22.8 9.6
Old vehicles 124.2 18.5 31.1 26.7
Bus 413.8 31.25 3.5 14.9
Madrazo, J., and A. Clappier, 2018: Low-cost methodology to estimate vehicle emission factors, Atmos. Pollu. Reas., 9, 322-332.
Air Quality Study: Emissions
9
Madrazo, J., A. Clappier, L. Belalcazar, O. Cuesta, H. Contreras, F. Golay, 2018: Screening differences between a local inventory 
and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Science of the Total. Environ., 631-632, 934-941
NH3
SOx
NOx
PPM
VOC
Concentrations
Meteorological fields
Air Quality Model
Emission Inventory
Air Quality Study: Numerical Simulations
10
Several 
daysWRF
CHIMERE
( )1 2 n, ,i iC f E E E= ConcentrationsEmissions
Set of scenarios results 
Source-Receptor Relationship - SRR
Few 
minutes
SHERPA
Thunis, P., B. Degraeuwe, E. Pisoni, M. Trombetti, E. Peduzzi, C.A. Belis, J. Wilson, A. Clappier and E. Vignati, 2018: 
PM2.5 source allocation in European cities: A SHERPA modelling study, Atmos. Environ., 187, 93-106.
Air Quality Study: Abatement Strategies
11
( )1 2 n, ,i iC f E E E= Concentrations
Emission 
scenarios
Set of scenarios results 
Source-Receptor Relationship - SRR
?
SHERPA
Design of Strategies
12
Why should Air Quality, Climate and Energy 
Strategies be coordinated?
13
❑ Air quality and Climate issues both arise from our energy usage (fossil fuels)
❑ Although air quality and climate measures generally lead to co-benefits,
there are exceptions.
❑ Decision makers have their own agenda.
Why should Air Quality, Climate and Energy 
Strategies be coordinated?
14
❑ Air quality and Climate issues both arise from our energy usage (fossil fuels)
❑ Although air quality and climate measures generally lead to co-benefits,
there are exceptions.
❑ Decision makers have their own agenda.
Why should Air Quality, Climate and Energy 
Strategies be coordinated?
15
❑ Air quality and Climate issues both arise from our energy usage (fossil fuels)
❑ Although air quality and climate measures generally lead to co-benefits,
there are exceptions.
❑ Decision makers have their own agenda.
Energy and Technologies
P
R
IM
A
R
Y
 R
E
S
O
U
R
C
E
S
16
Residential
Industries
Transport
S
E
R
V
IC
E
S
Technologies
dedicated to 
Services
Oil & 
Nat. Gas
Water
Sunlight
Wind
Biomass
E
L
E
C
T
R
IC
IT
Y
R
E
F
IN
E
D
-F
U
E
L
S
H
E
A
T
Resource 
conversion-
technologies
Resource 
extraction-
technologies
Cuban Energy Demand in 2015
17
The residential demand is shared between private buildings (65%) and public buildings (45%).
Electricity Fuels Total
Residential 27% 10% 37%
Industries 10% 30% 41%
Transport 0% 11% 11%
Other 0% 12% 12%
Total 37% 63% 46 TWh
Cuban Energy Resources Used in 2015
18
Ressources Demand
TOTAL (TWh) 98.7
Water 0.05%
Solar 0.03%
Wind 0.03%
Biomass 18.2%
Domestic_NGas 6.0%
Domestic_Oil 33.2%
Imported_Oil & Sub 42.5%
46 TWh
Bagasse (sugar cane)
Off and on shore
PV panel and wind turbines
Cuban Energy Resources Used in 2015
19
Ressources Demand
TOTAL (TWh) 98.7
Water 0.05%
Solar 0.03%
Wind 0.03%
Biomass 18.2%
Domestic_NGas 6.0%
Domestic_Oil 33.2%
Imported_Oil & Sub 42.5%
46 TWh
❑ In 2015, energy imports were still important with a share of 42.5% (i.e. 41.9 TWh).
❑ The share of wind and solar energy combined was only 0.06%.
« Official » Demand Forecast for 2030
20
Electricity Fuels Total
Residential 36% 8% 43%
Industries 13% 25% 38%
Transport 0% 9% 9%
Other 0% 10% 10%
Total 49% 51% 56,7 TWh
Cuban authorities estimate that the electricity consumption will increase by 3.28% a year until 2030.
During this period fuel consumption is expected to stagnate. The total energy demand should therefore
increase from 46 TWh in 2015 to 56.7 TWh by2030.
« Official » Strategy for 2030
21
56,7 TWh
TOTAL (TWh) 160
Water 0.6%
Solar 0.3%
Wind 0.3%
Biomass 32.2%
Domestic_NGas 5.6%
Domestic_Oil 36.3%
Imported_Oil & Sub 24.6%
❑ Decrease energy imports from 41.9 to 39.4 TWh.
❑ Increase the exploitation of fossil resources from 32.8 to 58.1 TWh for oil and from 5.9 to
9 TWh for gas.
❑ Increase the production of renewable energy from 18 to 51.5 TWh for biomass and from
0.1 TWh to 2 TWh for solar, wind and hydro
The Facts behind Political Strategies… 
22
30%
70%
10%
90%
-40% after the 
cessation of 
USSR assistance 
in 1989
+21% after
the energy
revolution in 
2006
30%
70%
In 2006 Cuba started its “Energy Revolution”. The goal was to increase energy efficiency and increase the
share of renewable energy but:
▪ the energy revolution is followed by a 21% increase in energy consumption until 2010,
▪ the share of renewable decreases from 30% in 2001 to around 10% in 2010.
Rather Optimistic Forecasts
23
Forecast of energy consumption in the Caribbean region
❑ Cuban authorities likely overestimated their energy production capacities, for the
biomass as well as for the oil extraction.
❑ Cuban authorities underestimated the electric demand. The increase in 2015 was 4.8%
instead of the foreseen 3.28%. The large impact of climate change foreseen over the
Caribbean region that will increase the needs for air conditioning (tourism) is not
accounted for.
Issues Related to the Energy Supply
24
In 2005 Cuba concludes a treaty with Venezuela (TSP- Tratado de
Comercio de los Pueblos) to exchange in the field of medical goods,
education and oil between the two nations.
Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez
Venezuela faced unprecedented economic difficulties and has seen its oil production decline drastically. It
is no longer able to provide Cuba, presumably since 2015.
Available Resources
25
Solar power, if operated over the entire surface of the country, would provide more than
1,400 times the electricity needs of 2015.
Available ressources
Oil and gas 15,1 - 20,9 155
Biomass (Bagasse) 1,7 - 6,5 -
Biomass (Marabu) 2,5 - 26,6 -
Hydroelectricity -
Wind 2,4 - 28,2 -
Solar -
Annual potential (TWh) Reserves (years)
0,99
24.433
The different Renewable Energies
26
Biomass is not the most efficient source of renewable energy in terms 
of land use.
The land surface necessary to supply Cuba with 
electricity by 2030:
▪ from 16,000 to 141,000 km2 if only biomass is 
used (bagasse and marabu),
▪ from 1'109 to 2'122 km2 if only wind turbines are 
used (on shore only),
▪ from 50 to 150 km2 if only solar panels are used.
Alternative Scenarios
27
We considered alternative energy scenarios that allow for:
❑ A potential increase of the energy offer,
❑ A reduction of the importations with an increased share of 
renewables.
❑ A reduction of the impact on the environment.
Alternative Scenarios
28
TOTAL (TWh) 151.5
Water 0.7%
Solar 2.6%
Wind 2.6%
Biomass 34.0%
Domestic_NGas 5.9%
Domestic_Oil 38.4%
Imported_Oil & Sub 15.8%
Demand: 
56,7 TWh
TOTAL (GWh) 62
Water -
Solar 25.8%
Wind 25.8%
Biomass -
Domestic_NGas -
Domestic_Oil 48.4%
Imported_Oil & Sub -
TOTAL (TWh) 128.9
Water 0.8%
Solar 6.4%
Wind 6.4%
Biomass 40.0%
Domestic_NGas 7.0%
Domestic_Oil 39.6%
Imported_Oil & Sub -
20% of electricity is produced by solar and wind
50% of electricity is produced by solar and wind
100% of electricity is produced by solar and wind
Alternative Scenarios
29
Indicators:
0 = best possible situation
1 = situation in 2015
2015
Official 20% 50% 100%
Total 98,7 160,0 151,5 128,9 62,0
Water 0,05 1,0 1,0 1,0 0
Solar 0,03 0,5 4,0 8,2 16,0
Wind 0,03 0,5 4,0 8,2 16,0
Biomass 18,0 51,5 51,5 51,5 0
Cuban natural gas 5,9 9,0 9,0 9,0 0
Cuban brut oil 32,8 58,1 58,1 51,0 30,0
Imported fuels 41,9 39,4 23,9 0 0
Energy security 1,00 0,83 0,52 0,00 0,00
Sutainability of the ressources 1,00 1,16 1,00 0,68 0,35
Air quality 1,00 1,07 1,01 0,93 0,84
Scenarios 2030
R
e
ss
o
u
rc
e
s 
(T
W
h
)
C
ri
te
ri
a
s
The increased share of solar and wind energy in the Cuban energy mix would allow to:
▪ Improve energy efficiency. The resources needed to supply 56.7 TWh in 2030 decrease from
160 to 62 TWh.
▪ Reduce the country dependency. Energy imports would decrease and even disappear when at
least 50% of the electricity is produced by solar and wind.
▪ Increase the sustainability of the resources with a higher share of renewables.
▪ Improve air quality. Less fuel and biomass are burned leading to reduced levels of pollution.
Alternative Scenarios
30
Fossil 
resources used
Energy 
dependency
Air pollution
Situation in 2015
Government strategy
20% solar and wind for EP
50% solar and wind for EP
100% solar and wind for EP
Scen
ario
s 2
0
3
0
EP = Electricity production
Cuban energy mix
Conclusions
31
❑ Strategies should be integrated (from energy demand to energy 
resources) and address several objectives at the same time 
(environmental like air quality and climate but also geopolitics 
like energy supply) .
❑ Preference to domestic resources increases economic stability…
❑ …as will do renewable energy in the near (!) future…
TERIMA KASIH
32
Intermittent
ID
tD
−
−
1
( )IS
ID
t
t
D
I 

−





−
− 1
1
( )IDtI −1 ( )
SD
ID
tt ID


−
−+−
1
1
ID
t
t
D
I
−
+−
1
tI−
( )IDtt ID −− 1
( )SDtS −− 12/1 2/1−− tS
( )BDtB −1
StorageDemand
tD
Intermittent
StorageDemand
Intermittent
StorageDemand
Backup
( )IDtI −1
tI−
a)
b)
c)
Figure X: Energy fluxes between the intermittent sources, the storage, the demand and the backup: a) the 
intermittent sources provides enough energy to fulfill entirely the demand, b) the storage completes 
the intermittent sources to supplies the demand, c) intermittent sources and storage are not 
sufficient to power entirely  the demand, it is necessary to use a backup energy source. 
tB−
33
34
Multiple Objectives
35
Private cars in Bogota (Colombia) 
Natural gas
Direct emissions + Emissions resulting from resource production
for CO, NOx, SO2, PM and Greenhouse gas (CO2 equivalent)
70% of Colombian electricity is 
hydroelectricity
25% Solar0% SolarWind
0-100% InterPec scenario
0-100% InterPec scenario
75% Solar50% SolarWind


Cuban’s energy strategy into 2030: General design features toward a sustainable transition.

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Cuban’s energy strategy into 2030: General design features toward a sustainable transition.

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