Dillender, Marcus

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Dillender, Marcus O.

Upjohn Research

Employment Research Newsletter Volume 26 Number 4 Article 1 10-31-2019 Climate Change and Occupational Health: Can We Adapt? Marcus Dillender University of Illinois at Chicago, modillen@uic.edu Follow this and additional works at: https://research.upjohn.org/empl_research  Part of the Labor Economics Commons Citation Dillender, Marcus. 2019. "Climate Change and Occupational Health: Can We Adapt?." Employment Research 26(4): 1-3. https://doi.org/10.17848/1075-8445.26(4)-1 This title is brought to you by the Upjohn Institute. For more information, please contact repository@upjohn.org.      ~~ EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH OCTOBER 2019  • VOL 26, NO 4 Climate Change andOccupational Health:ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS n In many settings, people have demonstrated capacity for substantial adaptation to regular exposure to extreme temperatures. n Workers laboring outdoors and away from air conditioning may not be able to avoid adverse health effects of extreme temperatures.n Hot days have more severe effects in warmer climates than in cooler climates.n Avoiding exposure to extreme temperatures appears to be easier for workers when extreme temperatures are rare.ALSO IN THIS ISSUE The Importance of Informal Work in Supplementing Household IncomeKatharine G. Abraham and Susan N. Housemanpage 42019 Dissertation Award Winnerspage 7Can We Adapt? Marcus Dillender, W.E. Upjohn Institute Te greenhouse gases accumulating in the earth’s atmosphere are poised to raise global temperatures considerably in a relatively short period of time. While using air conditioning and limiting outdoor exposure may help mitigate the adverse efects of high temperatures, these approaches are not feasible in all situations. In particular, the hundreds of millions of workers around the world exposed to outdoor temperatures as part of their jobs may face additional adaptation challenges relative to the rest of the population. Despite considerable attention devoted to understanding the impact of temperature on a variety of outcomes and behaviors, little is currently known about the efect of temperature on workers’ health. I assess the efect of temperature on occupational health by combining worker injury and illness reports with weather information at daily frequencies. I fnd that both high and low temperatures have adverse efects on occupational health. In contrast to research on temperature and mortality, I fnd no evidence that the ability to adapt to high temperatures has led to hot days having less severe efects on occupational health in warm climates. Instead, I fnd that hot days have more severe efects in warm climates, which suggests that avoidance practices may be easier when extreme temperatures are rare. In essence, construction workers in states like Michigan and Wisconsin can avoid working or avoid doing their most dangerous work on the rare day above 95°F degrees. But in states like Arizona or Texas, days over 95°F are common, and working on these days cannot be avoided. To determine how avoiding extreme temperatures may relate to the diferential occupational health efects I fnd, I examine the efect of temperature on weekly hours worked in temperature-exposed jobs. Te results indicate that high temperatures reduce hours more in cooler climates, and low temperatures reduce hours more in warmer climates. Tis pattern is consistent with greater difculty in avoiding temperature extremes Workers who labor outdoorsmay face additional challenges inadapting to high temperaturesrelative to the rest of the population. helping explain why hot days are more harmful to occupational health in warm climates. Tese fndings highlight that the ease of adapting to high temperatures varies across settings. Much research fnds that people in warm climates have been able to adapt to regularly being exposed to high temperatures. Te ability to adapt means that using current estimates of the efects of temperature likely overstates some costs of climate change. But my study suggests that workers who labor outdoors may face additional challenges in adapting to high temperatures relative to the rest of the population. Te adverse efects of high temperatures on workers may grow as high temperatures become more common. Possible Efects of Temperature on Occupational Health and Unknown Capacity for Mitigation Extreme temperatures can push the body’s core temperature outside of healthy ranges. High temperatures can increase heart and respiratory rates, reduce blood pressure, and damage internal organs, which can lead to sunstroke, syncope,         t w. l PJO!IN 11'.',.C: ,'"::E EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH  • OCTOBER 2019 W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE Climate Change and Occupational Health: Can We Adapt? cramps, exhaustion, and fatigue, as well as acute cardiovascular and respiratory failure. As fatigue is ofen a contributing factor for injuries, high temperatures also have the potential to increase injury rates. Focusing solely on temperature-related illnesses severelyunderstates the total efect oftemperature on workers’ health byneglecting temperature’s largeefects on injury rates. Cold temperatures cause veins and arteries to narrow, blood to become more viscous, and the body to lose heat, which depletes energy. Te direct adverse efects of cold temperatures include frostbite and hypothermia. As cold weather causes muscles to tighten and restricts blood fow, cold temperatures can lead to muscle strains and sprains as well as other injuries. At temperatures below 32°F, ice may form, which may increase the prevalence of falls or motor vehicle accidents. While both high and low temperatures have adverse health efects, people have demonstrated a substantial capacity to adapt to their climates. Research has found that hot days have less severe efects in warmer climates than in cooler climates, largely because the higher frequency of hot days in warmer climates has led to greater investments in air cooling technology in these places. Two factors, however, complicate mitigation eforts for workers, especially those laboring outside. Figure 1  The Efect of Temperature on Workers’ Compensation Claims per 100,000 Workers NOTE: The graph displays estimates of the efect of temperature on workers’ compensation (WC) claim rates along with 95-percent confdence intervals. All estimates are relative to when daily high temperatures are between 59°F and 61°F. The sample includes 154,968 observations, where each observation is a metropolitan area-day. The underlying workers’ compensation claim data are from Texas between 2006 and 2014 and contain 1,916,590 individual claims. SOURCE: Author’s calculations. -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 below 3535 - 3738 - 4041 - 4344 - 4647 - 4950 - 5253 - 5556 - 5862 - 6465 - 6768 - 7071 - 7374 - 7677 - 7980 - 8283 - 8586 - 8889 - 9192 - 9495 - 9798 - 100 greater than 100 First, since air conditioning, of course, doesn’t work outdoors, there are currently no widely available technological solutions to protect workers from extreme hot temperatures. Second, workers may fnd it more difcult to avoid temperature extremes than nonworkers: construction workers, police, and letter carriers, among others, ofen have fxed schedules that require them to work outside regardless of the elements. Tus, it is unclear that workers will be able to mitigate the adverse health efects of extreme temperatures. Approach and Findings of Study To assess the efects of temperature on occupational health, I construct two data sets with occupational health outcomes matched to weather information. Te frst draws on workers’ compensation administrative data from Texas and consists of daily metropolitan-area claim rates matched to daily weather data from the National Climatic Data Center. To consider the efects of temperature on occupational health for climates outside of Texas, a relatively hot state, I also use data on injuries and illnesses from the mining industry that measure daily injury rates for various outdoor, above-ground mining sites across the United States, along with the weather experienced at the site each day. Afer controlling for seasonality and fxed diferences across metropolitan areas, I estimate the efect of temperature on occupational health measures through plausibly random, short-run fuctuations—abnormally hot or cold days. Using the Texas data set, I fnd evidence that both high and low temperatures are detrimental to workers’ health (see Figure 1). A day with a high temperature of between 86°F and 88°F increases claim rates over the next three days by 2.1 to 2.8 percent relative to a day with a high temperature of between 59°F and 2        t """ l i'J( ll '\i :"-l.; fl fl ft EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH  • OCTOBER 2019 W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 61°F. A day with a high temperature of over 100°F increases three-day claim rates by 3.5 to 3.7 percent. Cold temperatures are at least as injurious. A day with a high temperature of under 35°F increases three-day claim rates by 3.4 to 5.8 percent relative to a day with a high temperature of between 59°F and 61°F. While extreme temperatures have long been thought to afect occupational health through creating conditions in which illnesses can arise, the impact of temperatures on injuries has received little attention beyond speculation. However, the estimates from the current study indicate that all of the increased claims from low temperatures and approximately 80 percent of the increased claims from high temperatures are for injuries. Focusing solely on illnesses typically thought of as temperature-related may thus severely understate the total efect of temperature on workers’ health. With the mining data, I test for heterogeneous efects of temperature based on a site’s temperature norms. Whereas adaptation and acclimation hypotheses would predict that the adverse efects of a hot day would be smaller in warmer climates, the estimates from the mining analysis suggest that a hot day has more detrimental efects on occupational health in warmer climates than in cooler climates (see Figure 2). Tese results provide strong evidence that extreme temperatures afect occupational health. While people have been able to adapt to high temperatures through air conditioning, many workers have not been as fortunate. Instead, fnding that hot days are more harmful in warmer climates suggests that the potential for workers to avoid extreme temperatures may be more limited in places where such temperatures are common. I explore this possibility using data on weekly hours worked from the monthly Current Population Survey. Again controlling for seasonality and Figure 2  The Diferential Efect of Temperature on Injuries per 100,000 Workers for Sites in Warmer Climates -20 -10 0 10 20 30 warmer climate * below 35 warmer climate * 35 - 37 warmer climate * 38 - 40 warmer climate * 41 - 43 warmer climate * 44 - 46 warmer climate * 47 - 49 warmer climate * 50 - 52 warmer climate * 53 - 55 warmer climate * 56 - 58 warmer climate * 62 - 64 warmer climate * 65 - 67 warmer climate * 68 - 70 warmer climate * 71 - 73 warmer climate * 74 - 76 warmer climate * 77 - 79 warmer climate * 80 - 82 warmer climate * 83 - 85 warmer climate * 86 - 88 warmer climate * 89 - 91 warmer climate * 92 - 94 warmer climate * 95 - 97 warmer climate * 98 - 100 warmer climate * greater than 100 NOTE: The graph displays estimates of the efect of temperature on WC claim rates, along with 95-percent confdence intervals, for warmer-climate areas relative to colder-climate areas, and relative to the base diferential between areas when the daily high temperatures are between 59°F and 61°F. The sample includes 2,615,672 site-days. The underlying injury data come from Mining Safety and Health Administration logs between 2006 and 2014 and contain information on 13,013 injuries. SOURCE: Author’s calculations. fxed diferences across metropolitan areas, I fnd that hot (or cold) days have diferent impacts on work hours for temperature-exposed workers depending on whether the prevailing climate is warmer or cooler. An additional day above 90°F decreases weekly hours worked more in cooler climates than in warmer climates, while an additional day with a high below 40°F decreases weekly hours worked more in warmer climates than in cooler climates. Tus, workers may better be able to avoid rare extreme temperatures than common extreme ones. Implications Tese results are relevant for assessing the costs of climate change, as they indicate that the health efects of extreme temperatures extend beyond the commonly hypothesized illnesses to also include injuries. Although research has shown that people can adapt to warmer climates—suggesting that current estimates of damages from high temperatures likely overstate some costs of climate change—the results from this study highlight that workers who have to be outside as part of their jobs may face additional challenges in adapting to high temperatures. This article draws on research from an Upjohn Instituteworking paper, which can be found at https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/299. Marcus Dillender was a senior economist at theUpjohn Institute and is now an assistant professorat the University of Illinois at Chicago. 3 

Climate Change and Occupational Health: Can We Adapt?

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Climate Change and Occupational Health: Can We Adapt?

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