Maximum-Entropy Weighting of Multi-Component Earth Climate Models

Abstract

A maximum entropy-based framework is presented for the synthesis of projections from multiple Earth climate models. This identifies the most representative (most probable) model from a set of climate models -- as defined by specified constraints -- eliminating the need to calculate the entire set. Two approaches are developed, based on individual climate models or ensembles of models, subject to a single cost (energy) constraint or competing cost-benefit constraints. A finite-time limit on the minimum cost of modifying a model synthesis framework, at finite rates of change, is also reported.Comment: Inspired by discussions at the Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modelling and Prediction workshop, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, UK, 11 Aug. to 22 Dec. 2010. Accepted for publication in Climate Dynamics, 8 August 201