Leading explanations of judicial independence argue political competition incentivizes
those in power to create independent courts as insurance against uncertain futures.
While much work addresses the role competition plays, little analyzes the fundamental
assumption that courts provide political insurance. I offer an original hypothesis as to
how independent courts provide insurance against post-tenure punishment and test
this using data on post-tenure fate of leaders from 1960-2004. Results show
independence is associated with significantly higher probabilities of unpunished posttenure fate. The article builds on and extend existing political insurance explanations, and offers the first test of one of their critical assumptions