Douglas, G. R.

MacPhee, S. B.

English

University of New Brunswick: Centre for Digital Scholarship Journals

International Hydrographie Review, Monaco, L X III(l) , January 1986HYDROGRAPHY FOR THE YEAR 2000by G.R. DOUGLAS and S.B. M acPHEE (*)1. INTRODUCTIONAny paper which deals with the future is open to criticism and skepticism by traditionalists. The only comforting fact for authors of futures papers is that recent history has shown the skeptics have an equal chance o f being wrong. Regardless of the odds in the prediction game, every discipline or organization must attem pt to determine the influences and pressures that will ultimately determine future directions. Hydrography is no exception !To address all o f the influences and pressures that bear on the hydrographic community would be an onerous task. Therefore this paper will address only a small num ber o f factors which the authors feel are the most im portant in revealing the direction of hydrography to the year 2000. While these factors place a m ajor emphasis on technology, their impact on society and the economy must also be considered as there are significant hum an problems in all countries that can be mitigated to some extent with the results o f marine research. The ocean is already a source o f extractable resources, living and non-living, and additional resources remain to be developed. The ocean provides a medium for shipping, com m unica­tions and national defence. It m odulates the climate, receives the wastes o f domestic, agricultural and industrial activity and welcomes those seeking recrea­tion. In each case too little is known about the relevant phenom ena and process to permit accurate forecasts of the consequence of alternate use strategies or management measures. W ithout that knowledge, resources may be wasted, used inefficiently or inadvertently destroyed. The cost of ignorance is often high and the investment in reducing it can produce large dividends” [1].2. TECHNOLOGYA recent report in C anada dealing with technology and federal policies defined technology as “tools and the capacity to create and use them ” [2]. Further,(*) Canadian Hydrographic Service, D epartm ent of Fisheries and Oceans, 615 Booth Street Ottawa, O ntario K1A OE6, Canada.it is “ not just about m achines; it’s about the skills and knowledge and ability of people to develop and use tools which make their lives more enjoyable and productive. Technology, in other words, is “know-how and know-why” . As such, it’s a social, cultural and educational phenomenon which cannot be considered in isolation from its hum an context” [3].The history o f technological advancement can be summarized as a series of push and pull cycles. The pull of dem and has created many great technological changes but the push of new technology has created changes of a fundam ental nature which have repeatedly altered the world in which we live and the way in which we carry out our daily lives.Dem and is the great pull for technological change. It was dem and that created the machines o f the Industrial Revolution. But demand pull involves simply the application o f engineering knowledge and innovation — not the genius of invention. Invention is the pushing force which pruus svjvi^ty iuim'o.iu . h  is witnin the framework o f technology change that the effect of the following factors on hydrography are discussed.3. SOME FACTORS TO BE CONSIDEREDThe factors considered for review in this paper are not meant to be exhaustive but to give some feel for what may happen in the future as a result o f various technical thrusts. Five factors encompassing computers, remote sensing, com m uni­cations, navigation and positioning, and platforms for surveys have been selected.3.1. ComputersAlthough the past 20 years have seen a dram atic increase in com puter performance, the num ber of users and the difficulty and range of applications have been increasing at an even higher rate, to the point that demands for greater performance now far exceed the improvements in hardware. The result is that difficult problems are typically undercom puted relative to the scientific require­ments.One solution to these requirements may be the new vector processors which are being designed to achieve speeds o f 800 million floating point instructions per second. This trem endous speed is achieved by dividing problems into parallel operations. Currently IBM researchers have developed an experimental 512 m icro­processor system called the Yorktown Simulation Engine while Intel Corporation has announced a new com puter utilizing 128 microprocessors.A developm ent concurrent with parallel processor research is the new breed o f machines known as reduced instruction set computers or RISCs. Although RISCs are far from being universally accepted in the industry, there appears to be significant gains in speed and operating simplicity.In addition the next (fifth) generation of com puters will likely employ Artificial Intelligence (AI) and be able to emulate hum an thought processes such as deduction, inference and comprehension. This will perm it natural language interfaces, knowledge bases, machine vision and com puter-aided teaching.W hat does this new direction in com puter technology mean for hydrogra­phy ? It means that systems which generate large am ounts of data, such as side-scan sonar, m ultibeam  sonar and laser depth finding systems will be able to process the inform ation to a meaningful state, without compromise, in a very short time. These systems will become inherently more useful and improve the quality and coverage o f the surveys as the capability to process the data in a rapid m anner is reached.3.2. CommunicationsIn 1985 there are approximately 25 communications satellites serving N orth America. By the year 2000 this capability is expected to increase by a factor of six. Solutions to the problem s of congestion in the allocated frequency bands and the geostationary areas, as well as the inherent shortcomings o f satellite com m unica­tions such as weather-induced attenuation, are likely to be found in the near future. The need to establish earth stations remains a major drawback to such systems; however, even partial solutions to this problem are already being addressed. G i n g r i c h , in his futuristic book, Window o f Opportunity [4], predicts a dram atic increase in com m unication capacity once the problems o f  assembling satellites and antennae in space are solved.W hat does this new tool mean to hydrography ? It means that data can be moved about very rapidly and very reliably. Indeed, it may have a centralizing effect on the processing and archiving of data being input to a data base. It is not difficult to envisage data from a survey vessel or aircraft being directed to a centralized processing system through satellite or surface m icrow ave/satellite links. D issemination o f data from the data base to a user is also entirely possible now and, o f course, this is one feature that will eventually play an integral role in the development of the Electronic Chart.Much o f the technology presently exists to implement data links via satellites with the result that many of the ideas discussed will be commonplace. The techno­logy currently available to transm it chart data from one location to another is already well advanced. A typical chart which contains approxim ately 25 megabytes of data can be transferred from one location to another in about 2 minutes.Projecting the potential gains in the use o f advanced com munications systems, G i n g r i c h  suggests that people engaged in certain data-intensive tasks will work at home thereby reducing the need for large offices and highways. It is not difficult to envisage a marine cartographer contracted to produce a certain num ber of data points per week on an interactive graphics system from a simple work station in the home.3.3. Remote Sensing — Satellite and AircraftFor purposes of discussing remote sensing in this paper, the term is m eant to cover param eters remotely sensed from aircraft as well as from satellites. Indeed for the more traditional param eters of hydrography, remote sensing from aircraft may be the most im portant to consider.The sensing o f water depths from aircraft by laser systems, m ultispectral scanners, electromagnetic systems and other hybrid systems is in its infancy. The system that holds the most potential is the laser-based system. Laser techno­logy is being intensely pursued by military researchers and many spin-offs from those investigations are likely to have a significant impact on the present system.Considerable effort has been exhausted on the application o f photo- grammetric techniques for determ ining water depths. It is the feeling o f the authors that these techniques will continue to be applicable to delineating the high and low water line and foreshore detail; however, it is unlikely that the photogram m etric approach with interpretation by analytical p lotter methods will succeed as a method o f consistently measuring water depths in a cost effective manner. The lack o f contrast between bottom features on much o f the sea floor precludes the consistent use of this approach. Indeed it is felt that the com bination o f active systems such as the laser system, complemented by the large footprint passive systems such as the spectral scanning system will, in the end, be the most effective. In addition electrom agnetic systems, while currently in their infancy, appear to show considerable promise for areal measurements.Remote sensing o f hydrographic param eters from satellites is under develop­ment as an additional small scale aid ; however, it has suffered from the excesses o f technology push. Often sensors were designed, built and implemented with little input from the potential benefactors of the new technology. There are, nevertheless, clear signs that this situation has changed for the better. A new generation of space-borne sensors has been designed with very specific application-orientated goals. For example, sensors with specific application to the shipping industry include those for sea surface wind measurement, ocean wave height m easurem ent and sea ice concentrations.One im portant consideration in remotely sensed observations is the quantity o f data collected. On a recent survey using the Larsen 500 laser system, 200,000 soundings were collected in 2.5 hours o f flight time. By the year 2000, the processing o f this data in a non-compromising m anner should be routine.W hat then is the future o f remote sensing in hydrography ? In general, remotely sensed data will continue to increase in popularity as a new tool for the chartmaker. These data will be used to meet very specific requirements such as the rapid survey o f selected inshore areas and macroscale views o f specific parameters. The notion that remote sensing will remain as a complementary technology will likely continue; however, as the technology continues to improve, the requirem ent for more traditional platform s and sensors will inevitably decrease for shallow water applications. This decrease will, at the same time, be more than com pensated for by an increasing dem and to carry out detailed swath mapping at all ocean depths.4. THE TECHNOLOGY FORCES ON MANAGEMENTThe quantum  leaps in technology have generated tremendous forces on the style and practices o f program management. Many managers have not grown up in the “high tech” environment and, consequently, are often faced with the difficulty o f utilizing the potential that the technology is capable o f providing. Many businesses as well as hydrographic offices have partially responded to the technology pressures but find themselves in a two-tiered, inefficient management process with some of the old and some of the new. The problem is really one of second and third generation management practices trying to integrate with fourth and fifth generation technology [5], Unfortunately, there appears to be little cause for optimism as the technology is progressing at a much faster rate than the human response to these changes. It can only be hoped that the new thrusts in information management and data base design will bring the technology and management into line.5. INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONSThe hydrographic community is fortunate to have initiated work on a common exchange format for digital data as a result o f a resolution adopted through Decision No. 31 at the 1982 Quinquennial Conference o f the International Hydrographic Organization [6]. It is felt that well before 1995, countries will be exchanging data in computer-compatible form and by the year 2000 this will be the standard format for data exchange.The easy exchange of digital data will greatly facilitate an accelerated production rate for International Charts at medium and large scales because it will provide printer nations with the hydrographic data in a form that can be easily m anipulated to their exact requirements.In addition, by the year 2000 ships will be fitted with receiving systems to receive hydrographic and other data at high data rates from regional distribution centres. Ship operators who will be using the Electronic Chart on a routine basis will be able to verify Notices to Mariners action, chart updates and, if necessary, check their digital data base for a particular area against the data held in a hydrographic office. Such will be the situation for the hydrographic community in the year 2000. Are we as hydrographers preparing ourselves and our organizations to meet the challenges and the opportunities ?6. TRAININGThe personnel required to understand, operate and maintain the technologi­cal developments o f the next fifteen years will be significantly different from the more traditional approach o f today. It is likely the hydrographic community will be forced into developing staff with distinct areas of specialization. The generalist o f today will, in all likelihood, become a rarity and will probably be replaced by a team concept. The specialization categories that make up the hydrographic team will likely include data collectors and processors, data managers, software and systems analysts and mission specialists. While these categories are not new in concept or operation, they do emphasize the greater degree o f specialization that can be expected.To prepare the hydrographic office of the future for the anticipated changes in personnel requirements, the training of future staff must be considered today. The hydrographic community has advanced a great deal with the development of the Standards o f Com petence for Hydrographic Surveyors [7]; however, the authors believe a re-examination of those Standards must begin now to ensure that we have adequately trained staff to meet tom orrow’s challenges while at the same time preserving those attributes that ensure the production of quality products.7. SUMMARYSome of the reasons for preparing this paper :i) This paper has been written as a stimulus for the hydrographic surveyor to consider the future. It is hoped that the thoughts presented will serve as a forerunner to more detailed futuristic papers.ii) It is felt that it is necessary to assess the technological framework in which we work and to see what mechanisms must be set in place to achieve optimum benefit from technological change. For example, what digital data bases should be constructed, what data should they contain, and how should they be structured to present hydrographic data to all clients in the most easily accessible format, be they mariners, oceanographers or developers.iii) The time has come to begin to sensitize the marine community to the rapid technological change that is taking place in the hydrographic process. Hydrographers are no longer just producers of traditional navigational charts and other publications. They are slowly becoming members of a volatile and im portant inform ation society.iv) Government Services in many nations and in particular hydrographic services are in a period of restraint. With decreasing resources, the question is : how can the increasing number of clients who depend on our services best be served ?v) There was a time when hydrographic operations were carried out only by the national charting agencies. As hydrography becomes more and more a private sector task, then national hydrographic offices m ust prepare their future organizations to ensure the integrity o f their data which is their lifeblood and raison d ’être” .BIBLIOGRAPHY[1] Intergovernmental O ceanographic Commission : Ocean Science for the Year 2000 (Paris l y o4), p. lc . ’[2] G overnm ent o f C anada : Task Force on Federal Policies and Programs for Technology Development, M inistry o f State for Science and Technology (Ottawa 1984) n 1[3] Ibid., p. 1.[4] G in g r ic h , N. : W indow of O pportunity -  A Blueprint for the Future (New York, 1984). t5] (USAhei985)S International : The Im Pact o f Technology on Banking -  W orld Summary[6] International H ydrographic Organization : Report o f Proceedings, X llth  International H ydrographic Conference (M onaco, 1982), p. 113.[7] International Hydrographic Bureau : Standards o f Com petence for Hydrographic Surveyors. Second Edition (M onaco, 1981).

Hydrography for the Year 2000

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Hydrography for the Year 2000

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