Ahead of primary elections in the state on May 17th, Christopher A. Cooper gives an update on how North Carolina’s electoral contests are shaping up. He writes that while the state’s Congressional districts and candidates are now essentially locked in, a crowded field of contenders heading into the primaries makes it difficult to make predictions about where things stand for the November midterms

Cooper, Christopher A.

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LSE Research Online

The	2022	Midterms:	Ahead	of	North	Carolina’sprimary,	district	lines	and	candidates	are	set,	but	theoutcome	will	be	anyone’s	guess.Ahead	of	primary	elections	in	the	state	on	May	17th,	Christopher	A.	Cooper	gives	an	update	on	howNorth	Carolina’s	electoral	contests	are	shaping	up.	He	writes	that	while	the	state’s	Congressionaldistricts	and	candidates	are	now	essentially	locked	in,	a	crowded	field	of	contenders	heading	into	theprimaries	makes	it	difficult	to	make	predictions	about	where	things	stand	for	the	November	midterms.	Looking	ahead	to	elections	across	the	US	in	2022,	our	mini-series, ‘The	2022	midterms‘,	exploresaspects	of	elections	at	the	presidential,	Senate,	House	of	Representative	and	state	levels,	and	alsoreflects	on	what	the	results	will	mean	for	US	politics	moving	forward.	If	you	are	interested	in	contributing,please	contact	Rob	Ledger	(ledger@em.uni-frankfurt.de)	or	Peter	Finn	(finn@kingston.ac.uk).About	a	month	ago	I	wrote	an	update	on	North	Carolina’s	2022	elections	noting	that	they	were	defined	byuncertainty.	This	conclusion	was	driven	primarily	by	three	factors.	First,	the	North	Carolina	electorate	is	dividedroughly	in	half	between	Republicans	and	Democrats,	liberals	and	conservatives,	and	those	on	the	left	and	those	onthe	right,	leading	to	an	air	of	uncertainty	that	permeates	all	of	the	state’s	politics.	Second,	at	that	point	thecongressional	and	state	legislative	maps	were	tied	up	in	court,	so	the	outline	of	the	district	lines	were	uncertain.Finally,	some	candidates	had	thrown	the	entire	notion	of	geographic	representation	on	its	head	by	announcing	thatthey	would	run	outside	of	their	home	districts.Today,	the	general	sense	of	uncertainty	that	always	pervades	North	Carolina	elections	remains,	but	the	other	twofactors	have	all	but	disappeared.	The	State	Supreme	Court	has	accepted	the	remedial	maps	submitted	by	theGeneral	Assembly	and	in	the	same	decision,	adopted	a	congressional	map	drawn	by	three	Special	Masters	(formerNorth	Carolina	judges	appointed	by	the	Court).	Candidate	filing	resumed	the	following	day	and	closed	on	March	4at	noon	and	Republican	Madison	Cawthorn	has	returned	back	to	his	home	district.	So,	where	do	we	stand	in	thiscritically	important	battleground	state?US	SenateThe	United	States	Senate	is	currently	perched	precariously	between	Democratic	and	Republican	control.	If	theRepublicans	gain	a	single	seat,	the	Democrats	will	lose	their	majority.	If	the	Democrats	can	hold	the	line,	however,they	will	have	two	more	years	where	they	control	both	the	upper	house	of	the	US	Congress	and	the	Presidency	(tosay	nothing	of	what	might	happen	in	the	House	of	Representatives).	There	is	perhaps	no	seat	that’s	more	critical	tothe	goals	of	both	parties	than	North	Carolina’s	Class	III	Senate	seat—one	of	only	six	open	seats	in	the	UnitedStates	and	one	of	just	three	that	fall	in	a	competitive,	two-party	state	(Ohio	and	Pennsylvania	are	the	others).	Giventhe	importance	of	the	North	Carolina	race,	it	is	probably	not	surprising	that	a	record	number	of	candidates	havedeclared	their	candidacy.	Figure	1	below	puts	this	year’s	candidate	filings	in	context.Figure	1	–	Number	of	Major	Party	Candidates	in	North	Carolina’s	US	Senate	Elections,	1966-2022USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Ahead of North Carolina’s primary, district lines and candidates are set, but the outcomewill be anyone’s guess.Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2022-03-09Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/03/09/the-2022-midterms-ahead-of-north-carolinas-primary-district-lines-and-candidates-are-set-but-the-outcome-will-be-anyones-guess/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/On	the	Democratic	side	of	the	aisle,	what	once	looked	like	a	potentially	fractured	Democratic	electorate	has	unitedaround	former	North	Carolina	Chief	Justice	Cheri	Beasley,	after	popular	state	Senator	Jeff	Jackson	announced	thathe	would	pull	out	of	the	race	and	put	his	support	behind	Beasley.	While	the	primary	outcome	does	seempreordained	in	Beasley’s	favor,	there	are	10	other	Democratic	candidates	who	have	entered	the	race	and	plan	to	dowhat	they	can	to	make	Beasley’s	victory	less	than	assured.The	Republican	side	of	the	aisle,	by	comparison	is	much	less	certain.	There	are	a	record	14	candidates	who	havefiled	for	the	Republican	Senate	primary,	although	the	consensus	holds	that	four	candidates	comprise	the	top	tier—Congressman	Ted	Budd,	political	newcomer	Marjorie	Eastman,	former	Governor	Pat	McCrory,	and	former	memberof	Congress	Mark	Walker.	While	Budd	and	Walker	have	been	constants	in	this	race	and	consistently	poll	at	the	topof	the	field,	Walker	had	previously	flirted	with	pulling	out	and	running	for	the	US	House	of	Representatives,	beforeannouncing	that	he	would	stay	in.	Eastman,	on	the	other	hand,	emerged	from	relative	obscurity	to	recently	attain	aplace	in	the	top	tier.“sign	vote	here”	(CC	BY-NC-SA	2.0)	by	zenUSApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Ahead of North Carolina’s primary, district lines and candidates are set, but the outcomewill be anyone’s guess.Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2022-03-09Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/03/09/the-2022-midterms-ahead-of-north-carolinas-primary-district-lines-and-candidates-are-set-but-the-outcome-will-be-anyones-guess/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/US	House	of	RepresentativesNorth	Carolina’s	congressional	delegation	currently	includes	8	Republicans	and	5	Democrats.		Population	growthearned	the	state	a	14th	district	and	after	considerable	back	and	forth	(and	that’s	a	vast	understatement),	the	finalmap	creates	an	electoral	landscape	that	is	likely	to	produce	six	Democratic	and	seven	Republicans	seats	with	asingle	highly	competitive	district	(district	13).	Each	district’s	two-party	vote	share	averaged	across	ten	2020elections	is	shown	in	Figure	2	below.Figure	2	–	Percent	of	two-party	vote	share	in	statewide	2020	elections	by	North	Carolina	CongressionalDistrict,	from	Congressional	map	ordered	23	February	2022Despite	the	clear	partisan	lean	of	most	of	the	districts,	22	of	28	party	primaries	have	more	than	one	candidate	(withthe	exceptions	being	the	Democratic	primary	in	Districts	2,	5,	6,	8,	9,	and	the	Republican	primary	in	8).	At	this	point,the	primary	races	to	watch	include:District	4	Democratic	primary:	This	open-seat	election	(the	current	occupant	David	Price	has	announced	hisretirement)	is	expected	to	produce	a	relatively	easy	Democratic	victory	in	the	General	Election.	Perhaps	as	aresult,	the	Democratic	primary	is	crowded.	Eight	candidates,	including	four	term	state	senator	ValerieFoushee,	Durham	County	Commissioner	Nida	Allam,	and	early	2000s	American	Idol	Star	Clay	Aiken	areseeking	this	seat.District	11	Republican	primary:	This	one	shouldn’t	have	been	interesting	at	all.	If	incumbent	MadisonCawthorn	had	simply	stayed	in	his	district,	he	would	be	well	on	his	way	to	an	almost	certain	primary	victory.By	announcing	that	he	would	run	in	a	district	to	the	East	of	his	own,	however,	he	opened	the	door	to	othercandidates,	including	state	senator	Chuck	Edwards	and	former	NC-11	Republican	district	chair	MicheleWoodhouse	to	enter	the	race.	When	the	new	maps	were	revealed,	Cawthorn	returned	to	his	home	district	onlyto	find	a	crowded	and	potentially	competitive	primary.District	13	Democratic	and	Republicans	Primaries:	Congressional	district	13	is	the	most	competitive	district	inthe	state	of	North	Carolina	and	both	primaries	are	packed	with	quality	challengers.	Five	people	are	vying	forthe	Democratic	nomination	including	former	State	Senator	Sam	Searcy,	and	current	State	senator	WileyNickel.	The	Republican	primary	includes	eight	candidates,	including	former	Congresswoman	Renee	Ellmersand	political	newcomer	Bo	Hines—a	candidate	cut	directly	from	the	Madison	Cawthorn	in	terms	of	both“America	First”	ideology	and	age.State	and	Local	RacesUSApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Ahead of North Carolina’s primary, district lines and candidates are set, but the outcomewill be anyone’s guess.Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2022-03-09Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/03/09/the-2022-midterms-ahead-of-north-carolinas-primary-district-lines-and-candidates-are-set-but-the-outcome-will-be-anyones-guess/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/While	the	attention	will	certainly	be	on	the	national	races,	North	Carolina	has	scores	of	competitive	races	fartherdown	ballot	that	will	influence	voter	turnout	and	change	policy	in	one	direction	or	the	other	for	millions	of	NorthCarolinians.	170	seats	in	North	Carolina’s	General	Assembly	are	up	for	grabs;	about	three	quarters	of	which	havecandidates	from	both	parties	running.	Local	offices	may	also	take	on	renewed	importance	this	year,	if	the	number	ofcandidates	declared	is	a	sign.	For	example,	a	race	for	Sheriff	in	Wake	County	(the	most	populous	county	in	thestate)	has	ten	candidates	running	for	a	single	position.The	Calendar	and	the	Rule	That	MattersThe	primary	date	in	North	Carolina	is	set	for	May	17,	but	that	likely	won’t	be	the	end	of	the	primary	action	in	NorthCarolina.	Like	most	southern	states,	North	Carolina	requires	that	candidates	who	do	not	earn	a	“substantialplurality”	of	votes	must	run	in	a	runoff,	or	second	primary.	While	the	threshold	used	to	rest	at	40	percent	+	1	vote,	itwas	moved	to	30	percent	plus	one	vote	in	2017.	Given	the	size	of	the	fields	in	many	of	these	races,	it	is	likely	thatthis	rule	will	be	critical	with	the	second	primary	scheduled	for	July	26	for	federal	offices	and	July	5	for	other	offices.The	lines	have	been	set,	but	the	outcomes	remain	uncertainIn	sum,	most	of	the	details	have	fallen	into	place	for	the	2022	primary	elections	in	North	Carolina.	The	district	linesare	set,	the	election	dates	are	on	the	calendar,	and	the	candidates	have	all	filed.	But,	as	we	have	come	to	expect	inNorth	Carolina,	while	the	uncertainty	is	certainly	reduced,	it’s	still	a	long	way	from	predictable.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USAPP	–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	northe	London	School	of	Economics.	Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/36205PqAbout	the	authorChristopher	A.	Cooper	–	Western	Carolina	UniversityChristopher	A.	Cooper	is	Robert	Lee	Madison	Distinguished	Professor	of	Political	Science	and	PublicAffairs	and	Director	of	the	Public	Policy	Institute	at	Western	Carolina	University.	His	research	focuseson	state	and	local	politics,	North	Carolina	politics,	southern	politics	and	elections	in	the	United	States.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Ahead of North Carolina’s primary, district lines and candidates are set, but the outcomewill be anyone’s guess.Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2022-03-09Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/03/09/the-2022-midterms-ahead-of-north-carolinas-primary-district-lines-and-candidates-are-set-but-the-outcome-will-be-anyones-guess/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

The 2022 midterms: ahead of North Carolina’s primary, district lines and candidates are set, but the outcome will be anyone’s guess.

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The 2022 midterms: ahead of North Carolina’s primary, district lines and candidates are set, but the outcome will be anyone’s guess.

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