Presentation on engineering methods for decision-makin

Seering, Warren P.

DSpace@MIT

Engineering Methods forDecision-MakingWarren P. Seering©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  2Dryden Flight Research Center©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  3The Dilemma0900Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6Potential ProjectsApproved Projects Support Resources Available for Projects Resource Demand by YearSource: V. Chacon SDM Thesis MIT and NASA Dryden©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  4Objective Function Objective: 3 to 5 year demand created by each project. Measured by averaging the length of a project, the amountof staff used, and the stability of the demand created by the project; desired project length is 4 years, desired staff quantity is 50 people assigned.  (Length + Staff + Stability) / 3DemandA measure of the changes or challenges experienced by a project  (100 equates to no changes; 0 equates to major changes)Stability(# of the staff on the project / 50 staff) * 100Staff(Length of the project / 4 years) * 100Length©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  5Historical Performance30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 11020 120Source: V. Chacon SDM Thesis MIT and NASA Dryden©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  6Controllable FactorsRequired risk mitigation level100=high,   65=average,   30=lowTechnical riskTechnical knowledge gained from project100=high,   65=average,   30=lowTechnical gain100=no changes                     0=major changesStaff stability[Planned/actual]*100StaffSkill level of assigned staff100=expert,   65=average,   30=traineeStaff skillRequired risk mitigation level100=high,   65=average,   30=lowSafety risk100=desired mix 0=all in-house or all contractIn-house/contract mixCustomer dependency on core capability100=total dependency             0=no dependencyCustomer dependencyRole of core capabilities in the project100=leading,   65=assisting,   30=consultingCore capability need[core capabilities used/17]*10017 total core capabilities availableCore capabilities100=no changes                       0=major changes Budget stability[Planned/actual]*100  BudgetelementsSource: V. Chacon SDM Thesis MIT and NASA Dryden©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  7Factor Effect on S/NMatch with Customer Needs-26.28-22.88-26.18-25.12 -25.12-27.00-26.00-25.00-24.00-23.00-22.00-21.001 2 3levelS/NMatch with Customer Needs-26.28-22.88-26.18-25.12 -25.12-27.00-26.00-25.00-24.00-23.00-22.00-21.001 2 3levelS/NCommitment -26.20-23.30-25.85-25.12-27.00-26.00-25.00-24.00-23.00-22.00-21.001 2 3levelS/N Commitment -26.20-23.30-25.85-25.12-27.00-26.00-25.00-24.00-23.00-22.00-21.001 2 3levelS/N Technical Gain -22.14-25.02-28.19-25.12-25.12-29.00-27.00-25.00-23.00-21.00-19.001 2 3levelS/NTechnical Gain -22.14-25.02-28.19-25.12-25.12-29.00-27.00-25.00-23.00-21.00-19.001 2 3levelS/NRisk Accepted-24.65-24.09-26.61-25.12-25.12-27.00-26.00-25.00-24.00-23.00-22.001 2 3levelS/NRisk Accepted-24.65-24.09-26.61-25.12-25.12-27.00-26.00-25.00-24.00-23.00-22.001 2 3levelS/N©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  8Predicted Improvementsbeforeafter30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 11020 120Source: V. Chacon SDM Thesis MIT and NASA Dryden©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  9Improvement0900Support Resources Available for Projects Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6Potential ProjectsApproved Projects Resource Demand by YearimprovementSource: V. Chacon SDM Thesis MIT and NASA Dryden©Massachusetts Institute of Technology WP Seering - 121202  10Benefits Reduce volatility of decision outcomes as a way for managing risk. A fresh approach to decision-making and the analysis and optimization of decision performance.  A method that makes decisions’ outcomes more immune to uncontrollable factors.   Repeatable processes based on proven analytic engineering methods. 

Engineering Methods for Decision-Making

http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/1721.1/83441/1/PDM_0303_Seer_EngMeth4DecMaking.pdf

Engineering Methods for Decision-Making

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

DSpace@MIT