Willaarts, B.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land Project overviewBarbara Willaarts, PhDInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisResearch Scholar and Project Manager Water Program III Stakeholder Workshop Indus Basin, 21-22 August 2019, Kathmandu, NepalPurposePartners:Develop tools and capacities that can support the management of the water-energy-land nexus at different scales and for different usersGEF Contract Agreement: 6993 Duration Oct 2016-Nov 2019Project components31. Globala) Diagnostic assessment (including pop vulnerability/exposure): Hotspotsanalysisb) Solution oriented assessment: Global transformation pathways2. Basina) Development of quantitative and qualitative nexus toolsb) Assessment of nexus solutionsc) Stakeholder engagement3. Capacity Enhancement and disseminationa) Trainings (models, and scenario tool)b) Research collaborations (joint papers)Project timeline4Q4 Q2 Q3 Q42016 2017Abbreviations: RM: Stakeholder regional meeting CB: Capacity BuildingPSC M: PSC meetingQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q12018 2019Q1        Q2         Q3            Q4 Stakeholder Engagement & Capacity Building  Zambezi 1RMProject Management, Monitoring & EvaluationGlobal Hotspot AssessmentMethods & ToolsOutreach & Dissemination 20 Scientific ConferencesZambezi 2RM &CBIndus 3RM & CBRegional Case Studies5 HLP6 peer review papers Indus1RM Indus 2RM & CBZambezi 3RM & CBDevelopment System Analysis Tool Exploring Nexus SolutionsEngagement, Capacity Building & DisseminationProject Management1 PSC call2 PSC Call2 PSC M1 PSC M3 PSC MCo-design of Scenarios and Development Pathways Co-design of Scenarios and Development Pathways Month 341 YSSP 2018Fast-track assessment 2 Basin nexus tools Global Solutions for SD6PR 1PR 2PR 3FR1 YSSP & 2 VR  2019Identification Nexus issues20 Scientific Conferences8 HLP1PSC Call1 Policy BriefGlobal hotspots assessment and explorer toolISWEL: Global analysis of vulnerability hotspots1.5 C2.0 2.0-1.5 C3 °C   • 3 socioeconomic scenarios –SSPs 1, 2 & 3• 3 climate change scenarios – 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0°CNeed 1.5°C to minimize risks to allNeed targeted poverty reduction to reduce vulnerabilityByers et al. (2018, ERL)IPCC (2018, Ch3.)Country example: South AfricaWater risks already prominent (1/3rd of population)Higher global warming:• exposes most of the population to energy risks (cooling & heat stress)• Up to 2/3rds population exposed to water risks • State-of-the-art online data exploration tool• Easy to use with layered complexity – from scientist to student• Dynamic  with range of perspectives (zoom global to basin)• Pop-out data selection, comparison and export• Customizable dashboards and maps• Education and dissemination• Indicator, sectoral and multi-sector analysis• Global, regional and basin comparisons• Socioeconomic scenario comparisonGlobal hotspots explorer9ZambeziIndusBasin AssessmentBasin Outputs1. Different tools intended for different usersQuantitative (researchers and planners)1. Regional basin planning model (policy optimization IAM)2. Visualization tool with datasets and scenario resultsQualitative (researchers and decision makers)3. Qualitative scenario tool4. Nexus Game10Semi-quantitative (decision makers)5. Simulation tool with quantitative constrains (prototype)2. Stakeholder informed scenarios11Basin-wide modeling toolCWaTM MESSAGENExus Solutions Tools (NEST)Infrastructure PlanningMESSAGEix(Huppmann et al., 2018)Distributed HydrologyCommunity Water Model (CWatM)(Burek et al., 2018)WaterTechsEnergyTechsLandTechsMinimize total system costDownscalingWater and land-useUpscalingPotential ETEffective precipitationsRunoff availabilityVinca et al., (forthcoming)12Participatory Scenario toolStakeholder visions and pathwaysDesirable Future 1Desirable Future 2Desirable Future 313STEP 1OutflowRunoffCurrent Situation2018 2050Business as Usual PathwaySTEP 22018 2050Desired Future PathwaySTEP 3Indus visions and pathwaysEnvironment pathwaySociety pathwayEconomy pathway18From pathways to basin scenarios19Sector(s) Policy Target (Economy)Target (Society)Target (Environment)Model Represent.Model IndicatorsWater Access to water clean water100% in 2050 100% in 2030 100% in 2030people connected to pipesinfrastructure costs and urban water demandWater storage and supplyDevelopment of large storage dams and interbasin transfersStrategic large storage dams combined with small scale storageStrategic storage dams; develop groundwater potentialStorage capacitytotal storage capacity, min, max and actual level of reservoirs, storage investment costsConservation of water-related ecosystems Economic water uses attended first  Securing environmental flowsSecuring environmental flows + conservation of sensitive wetlands Allocation prioritization, Restrict land use changes Volumetric flow by sector (km^3), Share of wetlands protected (%)Ensuring water qualityAt least primary treatment of industrial and urban water At least primary treatment of industrial and urban water Secondary wastewater treatment and recycling; wastewater treatement and water pollutantsInvestments in clean water technologiesFlood and drought management Multipurpose-dam management ; Joint surface and groundwater managementMultipurpose-dam management+Transboundary cooperation strategyMulti-purpose dam management and NBSMaximum river flowsActivity of river, canals and level of reservoir20Scenario toolVIDEOLUMS, Lahore, March 2018The Nexus GameCapacity EnhancementZimbabwe UniversityHarare , July 2018Ansir Ilyas LUMS, PakistanLUMSLahore , March 2018Visiting researchers 2018 Nexus GameTrainings and Lectures Keynote on Water-Energy-Land Nexus, Lahore, 26 March 2018 Training on IAMs for nexus management, Vienna, 1 June 2018 Training on Scenario Planning Approaches, Harare, 9 July 2018Mengru Wang WUR, ChinaFabio AmendolaUFRJ, Brazil22Outcomes from the basin tools and scenarios241. Well received by stakeholders: help breaking the silo mentality and enhancing mutual learning2. Flexible, can be adapted to explore a wide range of issues at different scales3. Combination of Model + scenario tool suitable for policy issue identification and measure development 4. Regional scenarios are coherent with global storylines, allowing for inter-comparison Thanks25willaart@iiasa.ac.at

Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land Project overview

http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16187/1/Willaarts%2C%20Project%20Overview%20Kathmandu%202019v2.pdf

Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land Project overview

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