Strategies to combat salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers: A model-based exploratory analysis

Abstract

Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances in agriculture, water treatment, and water purification, poses significant challenges for freshwater management. The research reported in this paper offers an approach for investigating and addressing the challenges to freshwater management using innovative exploratory modeling techniques. We present a generic systems model of a low lying coastal region that depends on its groundwater resources. This systems model covers population, agriculture, industry, and the groundwater reserve. The model captures the key dynamics of these subsystems and their interactions (adapted from Hoekstra, 1998). The systems model in turn is coupled to a powerful scenario generator, which is capable of producing a comprehensive range of plausible future scenarios (Lempert et al., 2003). Each scenario describes a unique future pathway of the evolution of population, the economy, agricultural and water purification technologies. We explore the behavior of the systems model across the wide range of scenarios and analyze the implications of these scenarios for freshwater management in the coastal region. In particular, the results are summarized in a decision tree that provides insights into the expected outcomes given the various uncertainties, thus supporting the development of effective policies for managing the coastal aquifer.Multi Actor SystemsTechnology, Policy and Managemen