Abalichin, Janna

Cai, Duy Sinh

Dameris, Martin

Kubin, Anne

Langematz, Ulrike

Matthes, Katja

Institute of Transport Research:Publications

--- MiKlip STRATO --- 1The role of the stratosphere for decadal climate prediction STRATO Ulrike Langematz, Anne Kubin, Janna AbalichinInstitut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin (FUB) Martin Dameris, Duy Sinh CaiDeutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, OberpfaffenhofenKatja MatthesHelmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR)MiKlip status seminar, Karlsruhe, 12.-14.02.2014  --- MiKlip STRATO --- 2Goals and Tasks Importance of the stratosphere for mid-term predictions of climate change:  Quantification of the influence of stratospheric solar forcing on decadal climate variability. Quantification of the role of stratospheric dynamical variability for decadal climate prediction. Response of the atmosphere-ocean system to stratospheric decadal forcing. Quantitative statements for improvements of the MiKlipnumerical prediction model for mid-term climate change due to the consideration of stratospheric processes.--- MiKlip STRATO --- 3Progress in STRATO (Feb. 2014)WP / Milestone Progress CommentEMAC reference simulations RCP 4.5 and 6.0 scenarios   1960-2100 completedEMAC-O simulations 1960-2070 Three 160ys time slices AOGCM runs (1860;2x1960) completed Transfer of AOCCM to new HPCF computer system  Tests ongoingEMAC-O simulations 1960-2070 with modulated solar cycle amplitudes Preparation of solar input data completed 50 ys simulated Will be started after successful transfer of AOCCM to new computer Analysis of solar decadal signal Ongoing  Will be completed by A. Kubin (after return from maternity leave in Feb. 2014)Analysis of stratospheric dynamical variability OngoingAnalysis of role of atmo-sphere-ocean interaction Ongoing--- MiKlip STRATO --- 4EMACfixed SST, inter. chem.MPI-ESM LR historicalcoupled ocean, prescribed ozone• Good agreement between models and ERA-Interim (not shown) colder and stronger NH polar vortex in EMAC; warmer summer stratopause in MPI-ESM; differences due to radiation schemes, interactive chemistry, or atmosphere-ocean coupling, model resolution?Comparison with MiKlip baseline prediction systemyears 1960 – 2005Pressure [hPa]Latitude Latitude--- MiKlip STRATO --- 5• Kodera and Kuroda (2002): Solar signal in stratosphere  downward propagationSSU (observations) EMAC MPI-ESM LR historicalRandel et. al., 2009 • Significant solar signal in global upper and mid-latitude lower stratosphere in EMAC.• Assessment from observations difficult.• Solar signal in MiKlip baseline prediction system improved compared to ECHAM5.1Solar temperature signal (K/130 F10.7 units)WP1: Solar signal in EMAC and MPI-ESM IPressure [hPa]Latitude Latitude--- MiKlip STRATO --- 6Solar ozone signal (ppm/130 F10.7 units)WP1: Solar signal in EMAC and MPI-ESM IINIWA ozone database EMAC MPI-ESM LR historical• Significant solar ozone signal in middle and upper stratosphere in observations and EMAC.• Prescribed solar ozone signal in MiKlip baseline prediction system is overestimated.Pressure [hPa]Latitude Latitude Latitude--- MiKlip STRATO --- 7EMAC MPI-ESM-LRSolar signal in annual mean short-wave heating rates [K/day]Difference between solar maximum (1968-1969) and solar minimum (1964-1966)WP1: Solar signal in EMAC and MPI-ESM III• Overestimated ozone signal in MiKlip baseline prediction system leads to enhanced short wave heating and temperature response. Is the improved solar signal in MiKlip baseline prediction system due to an improved SW radiation code or the result of an unrealistic ozone signal? (ongoing work)0.20.10.0-0.1Pressure [hPa]0.1101001000[K/day]Latitude Latitude--- MiKlip STRATO --- 8Observations Irregular repetition of solar cycles 20-23 (guideline of CCMI)Ratio of solar cycles around their maxima gives factors forStrengthening: SC19/SC23Weakening: SC20/SC23of the solar cycle amplitude.19 20 23WP1: Range of solar signal in EMAC Construction of solar cycles with strengthened and weakened amplitudeSimulations with modified solar cycles will be started as soon  as transfer of EMAC-O to new computer iscompleted.• SC multiplied by strengthening or weakening factor around its maximum  Solar maxima enhanced.• Linear interpolation of multiplication factor towards minimum of solar cycle  Solar minima unchanged.e.g., cycle 23--- MiKlip STRATO --- 9WP 2: Stratospheric dynamics: Internal variability and decadal climate prediction The QBO is theleading mode inthe (tropical)stratosphere! --- MiKlip STRATO --- 10WP 2: Stratospheric dynamics: Internal variability and decadal climate prediction ERAIpower of zonal mean zonal wind sum over all wave lengths Stratosphere (30 hPa)QBOln(power [m2/s2])--- MiKlip STRATO --- 11WP 2: Stratospheric dynamics: Internal variability and decadal climate prediction Examples (120)Ensemble spread > 12 monthsQBO QBO QBOln(power [m2/s2])ln(power [m2/s2])LatitudeLatitude--- MiKlip STRATO --- 12EMAC/MPIOM 1860 conditions HadISST: time series 1871-1899WP 3: Response of the atmosphere-ocean system to stratospheric decadal forcing Validation of EMAC-O 1860 time slice simulation with HadISSTs for 1871-1899--- MiKlip STRATO --- 13EMAC-O-1860Ctl: 1860 long term mean DJFNOAA-20th_C: 1871-1899 long term mean DJFWP 3: Response of the atmosphere-ocean system to stratospheric decadal forcing [hPa] [hPa]Comparison of EMAC-O-1860Ctl with NOAA-20th_C-ReanalysisMean sea level pressure--- MiKlip STRATO --- 14Summary• Decadal solar signal improved in MiKlip baseline prediction system. Possible reasons (radiation code, ozone) still need to be verified.• Improved representation of stratospheric variability in tropics and polar regions important for variability patterns in lower troposphere.• Consistent representation of lower boundary conditions (interactive ocean model) important for interpretation of total solar impact on tropospheric dynamics.--- MiKlip STRATO --- 15Collaborations within MiKlip-BFastO3 Fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate modelsDr. Markus Rex, AWI Potsdam, Ulrike Langematz, FUBApplication and evaluation of SWIFT in EMAC and EMAC-O (i.e. a model of the ECHAM family and in a model with a full chemistry scheme) , SWIFT will be coupled in the FAST-O3 project as sub-model to EMAC and EMAC-O. STRATO simulations will be used as reference for the evaluation of EMAC-SWIFT. Model output from these simulations will be provided to FAST-O3. 

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