Nowadays, the scientific and social significance of the research of climatic effects has become
outstanding. In order to be able to predict the ecological effects of the global climate change, it is
necessary to study monitoring databases of the past and explore connections. For the case study
mentioned in the title, historical weather data series from the Hungarian Meteorological Service and
Szaniszló Priszter’s monitoring data on the phenology of geophytes have been used. These data describe
on which days the observed geophytes budded, were blooming and withered. In our research we have
found that the classification of the observed years according to phenological events and the classification
of those according to the frequency distribution of meteorological parameters show similar patterns, and
the one variable group is suitable for explaining the pattern shown by the other one. Furthermore, our
important result is that the dates of all three observed phenophases correlate significantly with the average
of the daily temperature fluctuation in the given period. The second most often significant parameter is
the number of frosty days, this also seem to be determinant for all phenophases. Usual approaches based
on the temperature sum and the average temperature don’t seem to be really important in this respect.
According to the results of the research, it has turned out that the phenology of geophytes can be well
modelled with the linear combination of suitable meteorological parameter
