Abstracts with downloadable Discussion Papers
in PDF are available on the Internet:
http://www.ssb.noAbstract:
This paper develops a theory of probabilistic models for risky choices. Part of this theory can be
viewed as an extension of the expected utility theory to account for bounded rationality. One
probabilistic version of the Archimedean Axiom and two versions of the Independence Axiom are
proposed. In addition, additional axioms are proposed of which one is Luce’s Independence from
Irrelevant Alternatives. It is demonstrated that different combinations of the axioms yield different
characterizations of the probabilities for choosing the respective risky prospects. An interesting
feature of the models developed is that they allow for violations of the expected utility theory known
as the common consequence effect and the common ratio effect.
Keywords: Random tastes, bounded rationality, independence from irrelevant alternatives,
probabilistic choice among lotteries, Allais paradox