Fichter, Tobias

Kern, Jürgen

Stökler, Steffen

Trieb, Franz

English

Institute of Transport Research:Publications

www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 1QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013QatDLR Status November 2013WP1: Framework for sustainable energy supply of Qatar and the Arabian PeninsulaJürgen Kern, Franz Trieb, Tobias Fichter, Steffen Stökler German Aerospace Center (DLR)Institute of Technical Thermodynamics (Stuttgart)Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessmentwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 1 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013Work Package (WP) 1:Title:Technical and economic frame conditions for efficient and sustainableenergy supply in Qatar and the Arabian PeninsulaStructure:AP 1.1: Resource potentialsAP 1.2: Techno-economic PotentialsAP 1.3: Market potentialsAP 1.4: Frame conditionsAP 1.5: Socio-economic impactAP 1.6: Environmental impactwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 2 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 2QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013AP 1.1: Resource PotentialsTopics: Mapping of energy sources and energy infrastructure• Global Radiation• Direct-Normal-Radiation• Wind Power• Hydropower• Geothermal• Biomass• Fossil Energy Carriers (Oil, Gas)• Uranium• Infrastructure for exploitation and distribution of energy sources(Electricity grid, power plants, pipelines, etc.)www.DLR.de  •  Slide 3 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013Mapping of Energy ResourcesExamplesGHI in 2011(more years in workfolgen)DNI in 2011(more years in work)Ø Wind Speed @ 50m1984 - 2005www.DLR.de  •  Slide 4 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 3QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013AP 1.2: Technical and Economic PotentialsTopics:• Area restrictions for renewable energy systems.• Definition of technical and economic thresholds of utilizability and exploitability of energy potentials. • Quantification of available energy potentials by technology.• Geografic infrastructure database.• Site-Ranking-Maps: geographic distribution of energy resources and ranking of sites.www.DLR.de  •  Slide 5 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013Technical and Economic PotentialsExample: technology-specific exclusion mapsLarge-scale PV CSP Windwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 6 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 4QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013Technical and Economic PotentialExample: Potential of wind energywww.DLR.de  •  Slide 7ExclusionAreasResourceavailabilityStatistical evaluation(DLR, QatDLR 2013) (DLR, QatDLR 2013)(DLR, QatDLR 2013)> DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de  •  Slide 8Data base: ca. 3000 unitsCountry specific power plant databaseCountry: Saudi ArabiaDeveloped by: Tobias Fichter Tobias.Fichter@dlr.deAnna‐Lena Fuchs Anna‐Lena.Fuchs@dlr.deLast update: 2013.10.02.Content Table 1 Thermal Power PlantsTable 2 Wind Power Plants / SitesTable 3 Solar Power Plants DLR ‐ Power Plant DatabaseData ID Country Subject Name (Full) Name (Short) ADM1 Level ADM2 Level Status Technology Fuel CoolingCombined Heat and PowerInstalled Gross Capacity in MW53 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 1 AJO‐OCGT‐1 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 3454 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 2 AJO‐OCGT‐2 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 3455 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 3 AJO‐OCGT‐3 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 3456 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 4 AJO‐OCGT‐4 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 3457 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 5 AJO‐OCGT‐5 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 3458 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 6 AJO‐OCGT‐6 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 3459 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 7 AJO‐OCGT‐7 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 3460 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 8 AJO‐OCGT‐8 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 55.561 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JOUF OCGT 9 AJO‐OCGT‐9 Al Jawf Al‐Jouf City OPR OCGT LFO/CR no 55.562 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUAYMAH IC 4 AJU‐IC‐4 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Juaymah OPR IC LFO no 10.863 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUAYMAH OCGT 1 AJU‐OCGT‐1 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Juaymah OPR OCGT GAS no 30.964 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUAYMAH OCGT 2 AJU‐OCGT‐2 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Juaymah OPR OCGT GAS no 63.965 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUAYMAH OCGT 3 AJU‐OCGT‐3 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Juaymah OPR OCGT GAS no 63.966 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL (RCJY) OCGT 1 AJB‐OCGT‐1 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail RET OCGT DIST no 23.4467 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL (RCJY) OCGT 2 AJB‐OCGT‐2 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail RET OCGT DIST no 23.4468 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL IWPP CCGT AJB‐CCGT Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail CCGT/D GAS yes 110069 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL REFINERY ST 1 AJBR‐ST‐1 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/S OIL yes 570 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL REFINERY ST 2 AJBR‐ST‐2 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/S OIL yes 571 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 IC 1 AJBS‐IC‐1 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail STN IC DIST no 3.3172 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 IC 2 AJBS‐IC‐2 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail STN IC DIST no 3.3173 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 IC 3 AJBS‐IC‐3 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail STN IC DIST no 3.3174 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 OCGT 1 AJBS‐OCGT‐1 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR OCGT GAS no 2575 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 OCGT 2 AJBS‐OCGT‐2 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR OCGT GAS no 2576 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 OCGT 3 AJBS‐OCGT‐3 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail UNK OCGT DIST no 1077 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 OCGT 4 AJBS‐OCGT‐4 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail UNK OCGT DIST no 1078 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 ST 1 AJBS‐ST‐1 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 6079 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 ST 2 AJBS‐ST‐2 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 6080 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 ST 3 AJBS‐ST‐3 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 6081 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 ST 4 AJBS‐ST‐4 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 6082 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 ST 5 AJBS‐ST‐5 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 6083 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐1 ST 6 AJBS‐ST‐6 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 6084 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 01 AJBS‐ST‐01 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 132.385 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 02 AJBS‐ST‐02 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 132.386 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 03 AJBS‐ST‐03 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 132.387 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 04 AJBS‐ST‐04 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 132.388 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 05 AJBS‐ST‐05 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 132.389 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 06 AJBS‐ST‐06 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 132.390 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 07 AJBS‐ST‐07 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 127.591 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 08 AJBS‐ST‐08 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 127.592 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 09 AJBS‐ST‐09 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 127.593 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 10 AJBS‐ST‐10 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 127.594 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 11 AJBS‐ST‐11 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 127.595 Saudi Arabia Powerstation AL‐JUBAIL SWCC‐2  ST 12 AJBS‐ST‐12 Ash Sharqiyah Al‐Jubail OPR ST/D GAS yes 127.5CCGT combined cycle gas turbineST       steam turbineOCGT open cycle gas turbineIC        internal combustion engine> DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 5QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013AP 1.3: Market potentialsTopics:• Demand perspectives for electricity under consideration of additional demand from water supply and the mobility sector.• Representative electricity load curves under consideration of water supplyand the mobility sector.• Time-specific supply patterns of renewable energy sources.• Modeling a transition of energy infrastructure towards a secure, inexpensive and sustainable supply pating from today‘s status quo.• National scenarios from the year 2000 to 2050 for the power supplysystem of the seven countries of the Arabian Peninsula.www.DLR.de  •  Slide 9 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013AP 1.3: Market PotentialElectricity Demand ModelConventional electricity sector• incl. oil & gas sector• incl. heating & cooling (top down analysis)• historical data update until 2010 and expectationsuntil 2020 (AUE and National Plans)Electromobility (new sector, bottom up analysis 2015+)Solar desalination (new sector, bottom up analysis2015+)> DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de  •  Slide 10www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 6QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013Conventional power sector (top down)1101001000100001000001 10 100Electricity per Capita [kWh/cap/year]GDP per Capita [1000 US-$/cap/year]20502040202020001980196001020304050607080902000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050per capita GDP (1000 US$/cap/yr)YearArabian Peninsula GDP per Capita BahrainKuwaitOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaUAEYemen0204060801001201402000200420082012201620202024202820322036204020442048Population (million)YearPopulationYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarOmanKuwaitBahrain020040060080010001200198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050Consumption (TWh/y)YearGross Electricity ConsumptionYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarOmanKuwaitBahrainwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 11 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013Elektromobility (bottom up)Omanwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 12 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 7QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013Solar Desalination (bottom up)Demand drivers:• Population growth• Efficiency of ater supply system• Climate change (modelled byfuturewater in the MENA Regional Water Outlook study)Base load electricity from CSP forRO or electricity loss usingthermal distillation in combinedheat and power plantswww.DLR.de  •  Slide 13 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013Individual Country Analysis0510152025302000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Consumption (MWh/cap/y)YearPer Capita Electricity ConsumptionBahrainKuwaitOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaUAEYemenArab. Penin.AustraliaIncluding demand drivers population, economic growth, heating & cooling, seawater desalination, electromobilityand efficiency gainsefficiencygainswww.DLR.de  •  Slide 14 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 8QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013Different trends and expectationswww.DLR.de  •  Slide 15 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013Total electricity consumption as function of time020040060080010001200198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050Consumption (TWh/y)YearTotal Electricity ConsumptionYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarOmanKuwaitBahrainwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 16 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 9QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013Influence on Load Curves (example Kuwait)electro-vehicleswww.DLR.de  •  Slide 17 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.20131. Affordability• Low cost• No subsidies• Low structural effort2. Security• Diversification of supply• Power on demand and redundancy• Sustainable energy resources• Available technology3. Environmental compatibility• Low pollution and climate protection• No new risks for health and nature• Low land use and structural impacts4. Social compatibility• Fair access to energy• Balance of dependencies and interdependencies• Strategic flexibility One consistent pathway towards sustainable supplyunder specific limitationsAP 1.3: Market PotentialCriteria for Scenario Developmentwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 18 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 10QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013AP 1.3: Market PotentialCountry Scenarios 2000 - 2050• Saudi Arabia• Kuwait• Oman• United Arab Emirates• Qatar• Bahrain• Yemenwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 19 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013AP 1.4: Regulatory Frame Conditions• Review of renewable energy policies and regulatory framework conditionsin the countries of the Arabian Peninsula• National renewable energy action plans (NREAPS)• Renewable energy expansion programs and initiatives• Documents and publications• Saudi Arabia• Kuwait• Oman• United Arab Emirates• Qatar• Bahrain• Yemenwww.DLR.de  •  Slide 20 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 11QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013Remaining Work Packages and Next StepsRemaining Work Packages:• WP 1.5: Socio-economic impact• WP 1.6: Environmental impactNext Steps for WP 1.1 -1.4:• Assess further years of resource data for DNI and GHI• Produce map of geothermal and biomass potentials• Assess CSP and large scale PV potentials• Finalize geo-referenced energy infrastructure database• Produce site-ranking-maps for PV, CSP and Wind• Create Scenarios 2000-2050 for UAE, Qatar, Bahrain und YemenFinal Report QatDLR WP1: 7 Country reports including all resultswww.DLR.de  •  Slide 21 > DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013Selected publications• MED-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp• TRANS-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp• AQUA-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp• MED-CSD www.med-csd-ec.eu/eng/• MENA Regional Water Outlook www.dlr.de/tt/menawater• Financing concentrating solar power in the Middle East and North Africa –Subsidy or investments? Energy Policy 39 (2011) 307-317http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.045• Solar electricity imports from Middle East and North Africa to EuropeEnergy Policy 42 (2012) 341-353http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.091> DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de  • Chart 22www.DLR.de > DLR‐STB‐CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern  18.11.2013Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt 12QatDLR Workshop Doha 18th of November 2013ContactJürgen Kern juergen.kern@dlr.de +49 711 6862 - 8119  Dr. Franz Trieb franz.trieb@dlr.de +49 711 6862 - 423Tobias Fichter tobias.fichter@dlr.de +49 711 6862 - 779Massimo Moser massimo.moser@dlr.de +49 711 6862 - 334Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)Institut für Technische ThermodynamikSystem Analyse und Technologie BewertungPfaffenwaldring 38-40 | 70569 Stuttgart | Germanywww.DLR.de/tt/> DLR-STB-CSP > QatDLR > Doha, Qatar Workshop > Jürgen Kern > 18.11.2013www.DLR.de  • Chart 23

Framework for sustainable energy supply of Qatar and the Arabian Peninsula

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