La faiblesse de l'euro. Une explication monétaire

Abstract

The depreciation of the euro vis a vis the dollar over its first two years is often viewed as a new proof that fundamentals-based models are unable to explain exchange rate movements. By contrast the present paper offers some econometric evidence with daily data showing that, within a sticky price framework, monetary fundamentals may have played a role in this depreciation. A fast monetary expansion associated with continental European interest rate convergence in 1998 and an accommodative ECB monetary stance in 1999 would thus bear some responsibility in the weakening of the euro. Classification JEL : F31