Towards a unified characterization of phenological phases: fluctuations and correlations with temperature

Abstract

Phenological timing -- i.e. the course of annually recurring development stages in nature -- is of particular interest since it can be understood as a proxy for the climate at a specific region; moreover changes in the so called phenological phases can be a direct consequence of climate change. We analyze records of botanical phenology and study their fluctuations which we find to depend on the seasons. In contrast to previous studies, where typically trends in the phenology of individual species are estimated, we consider the ensemble of all available phases and propose a phenological index that characterizes the influence of climate on the multitude of botanical species.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures, appendix with 1 table; accepted for Physica