Slovenia and the European Union: Macroeconomic Development Scenarios.

Abstract

Consistent projections are presented for Slovenia's economic development in the form of two scenarios: one assuming accession to the European Union in 2005, and another assuming that no accession takes place before 2010. If accession does not take place, the growth of GDP will fluctuate between 3 and 4 percent, while in the accession scenario it achieves 5-6% in the years before and after accession. In both scenarios some reorientation of trade to former Yugoslav regions is expected, but in case of accession the high share of trade with the EU is maintained. Budgetary policy and agreement with social parters are expected to take care of moderate wage developments, which are even more crucial in case of accession due to the increased competitive pressures. The forecasts assume not only that external conditions will be favorable, or at least not adverse, but that internal structural reforms and economic policy making will fulfill all the ambitious targets that the official national and international documents prescribe.