Vieillissement et protection sociale. Comparaison de six pays de l'Union Européenne

Abstract

The ageing of the population is a common characteristic to all countries of the European Union. Alone the extent and the calendar of this phenomenon can differ according to countries. The rise of the expectancy life and the ageing of the baby boom generation, associates to a fall of the fecundity rate since 70s, will have undeniably consequences on the dependence ratios evolution and, de facto, on the share of the GDP devoted to the financing of retirement and health expenditures. In revenge, the return to the full employment and the diminution of the number of children would have to induce a decline of unemployment and family expenditures, nevertheless insufficient to counter the increase of retirement and health benefits. The financing of the protection social system will be less difficult to manage in countries having preserved enough dynamic demographic behaviours (Sweden) than in countries where the demographic situation will be potentially explosive (Italy).