Texas Treasury Notes and the Mexican-American War: Market Responses to Diplomatic and Battlefield Events

Abstract

Studies have demonstrated the impact of battlefield outcomes on financial markets in the case of the US Civil War and other existential struggles. But many wars (such as Vietnam and Iraq) have been wars of choice. In these wars, military victories have not necessarily led to peace. Investigation of the market impact of battlefield and diplomatic events in the context of a war of choice offers the opportunity to distinguish the market's interest in peace as distinct from victory; and, the usefulness of identifying events from the study of history as an adjunct to the empirical identification of break-points.