Assessing uncertainty in the American Indian Trust Fund

Abstract

Fiscal year-end balances of the Individual Indian Money System (a part of the Indian Trust) were constructed from data related to money collected in the system and disbursed by the system from 1887 to 2007. The data set of fiscal year accounting information had a high proportion of missing values, and much of the available data did not satisfy basic accounting relationships. Instead of just calculating a single estimate and arguing to the Court that the assumptions needed for the computation were reasonable, a distribution of calculated balances was developed using multiple imputation and time series models. These provided information to assess the uncertainty of the estimate due to missing and questionable data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS274 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org