This paper uses scenario planning to systematically examine the potential impact of massive open online courses (MOOCs) on higher education and international student mobility. Disruptive technology theory and technology life cycle theory were used jointly to identify that MOOCs have the potential to result in disruptive change to the nature and structure of the higher education sector. A set of scenarios and strategies derived from the disruptive innovation analysis serve as examples of how scenario planning can be used to help universities adapt or thrive according to the strategies they choose
