We consider the sparse regression model where the number of parameters p is
larger than the sample size n. The difficulty when considering
high-dimensional problems is to propose estimators achieving a good compromise
between statistical and computational performances. The BIC estimator for
instance performs well from the statistical point of view \cite{BTW07} but can
only be computed for values of p of at most a few tens. The Lasso estimator
is solution of a convex minimization problem, hence computable for large value
of p. However stringent conditions on the design are required to establish
fast rates of convergence for this estimator. Dalalyan and Tsybakov
\cite{arnak} propose a method achieving a good compromise between the
statistical and computational aspects of the problem. Their estimator can be
computed for reasonably large p and satisfies nice statistical properties
under weak assumptions on the design. However, \cite{arnak} proposes sparsity
oracle inequalities in expectation for the empirical excess risk only. In this
paper, we propose an aggregation procedure similar to that of \cite{arnak} but
with improved statistical performances. Our main theoretical result is a
sparsity oracle inequality in probability for the true excess risk for a
version of exponential weight estimator. We also propose a MCMC method to
compute our estimator for reasonably large values of p.Comment: 19 page
