Cowden, John

Forbes, Ken J.

MacRae, Marion

Maiden, Martin C.J.

Rotariu, Ovidiu

Sheppard, Samuel K.

Smith-Palmer, Alison

Strachan, Norval J.C.

PLoS ONE

English

PubMed

Research Archive

A national epidemic of campylobacteriosis in Iceland, lessons learned.

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Has retail chicken played a role in the decline of human campylobacteriosis?

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Operationalising factors that explain the emergence of infectious diseases : A case study of the human campylobacteriosis epidemic

<div><p>A framework of general factors for infectious disease emergence was made operational for <i>Campylobacter</i> utilising explanatory variables including time series and risk factor data. These variables were generated using a combination of empirical epidemiology, case-case and case-control studies, time series analysis, and microbial sub-typing (source attribution, diversity, genetic distance) to unravel the changing/emerging aetiology of human campylobacteriosis. The study focused on Scotland between 1990–2012 where there was a 75% increase in reported cases that included >300% increase in the elderly and 50% decrease in young children. During this period there were three phases 1990–2000 a 75% rise and a 20% fall to 2006, followed by a 19% resurgence. The rise coincided with expansions in the poultry industry, consumption of chicken, and a shift from rural to urban cases. The post-2000 fall occurred across all groups apart from the elderly and coincided with a drop of the prevalence of <i>Campylobacter</i> in chicken and a higher proportion of rural cases. The increase in the elderly was associated with uptake of proton pump inhibitors. During the resurgence the increase was predominantly in adults and the elderly, again there was increasing use of PPIs and high prevalences in chicken and ruminants. Cases associated with foreign travel during the study also increased from 9% to a peak of 16% in 2006 before falling to an estimated 10% in 2011, predominantly in adults and older children. During all three periods source attribution, genetic distance, and diversity measurements placed human isolates most similar to those in chickens. A combination of emergence factors generic for infectious diseases were responsible for the <i>Campylobacter</i> epidemic. It was possible to use these to obtain a putative explanation for the changes in human disease and the potential to make an informed view of how incidence rates may change in the future.</p></div

Norval J. C. Strachan (235193)

Ovidiu Rotariu (235198)

Marion MacRae (310360)

Samuel K. Sheppard (124129)

Alison Smith-Palmer (416347)

John Cowden (416348)

Martin C. J. Maiden (42431)

Ken J. Forbes (235202)

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Operationalising Factors That Explain the Emergence of Infectious Diseases: A Case Study of the Human Campylobacteriosis Epidemic

Strachan Norval J. C.

Rotariu Ovidiu

MacRae Marion

Sheppard Samuel K.

Smith-Palmer Alison

Cowden John

Maiden Martin C. J.

Forbes Ken J.

Public Library of Science (PLOS)

A framework of general factors for infectious disease emergence was made operational for Campylobacter utilising explanatory variables including time series and risk factor data. These variables were generated using a combination of empirical epidemiology, case-case and case-control studies, time series analysis, and microbial sub-typing (source attribution, diversity, genetic distance) to unravel the changing/emerging aetiology of human campylobacteriosis. The study focused on Scotland between 1990-2012 where there was a 75% increase in reported cases that included >300% increase in the elderly and 50% decrease in young children. During this period there were three phases 1990-2000 a 75% rise and a 20% fall to 2006, followed by a 19% resurgence. The rise coincided with expansions in the poultry industry, consumption of chicken, and a shift from rural to urban cases. The post-2000 fall occurred across all groups apart from the elderly and coincided with a drop of the prevalence of Campylobacter in chicken and a higher proportion of rural cases. The increase in the elderly was associated with uptake of proton pump inhibitors. During the resurgence the increase was predominantly in adults and the elderly, again there was increasing use of PPIs and high prevalences in chicken and ruminants. Cases associated with foreign travel during the study also increased from 9% to a peak of 16% in 2006 before falling to an estimated 10% in 2011, predominantly in adults and older children. During all three periods source attribution, genetic distance, and diversity measurements placed human isolates most similar to those in chickens. A combination of emergence factors generic for infectious diseases were responsible for the Campylobacter epidemic. It was possible to use these to obtain a putative explanation for the changes in human disease and the potential to make an informed view of how incidence rates may change in the future

Norval J C Strachan

Ovidiu Rotariu

Marion MacRae

Samuel K Sheppard

Alison Smith-Palmer

John Cowden

Martin C J Maiden

Ken J Forbes

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Operationalising factors that explain the emergence of infectious diseases: a case study of the human campylobacteriosis epidemic.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0079331

Operationalising factors that explain the emergence of infectious diseases : A case study of the human campylobacteriosis epidemic

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