Reveron, Derek S.

English

U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons

Naval War College ReviewVolume 60Number 4 Autumn Article 122007How Many Countries Does It Take to Make aThousand-Ship Navy?Derek S. ReveronFollow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-reviewThis Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion inNaval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contactrepository.inquiries@usnwc.edu.Recommended CitationReveron, Derek S. (2007) "How Many Countries Does It Take to Make a Thousand-Ship Navy?," Naval War College Review: Vol. 60 :No. 4 , Article 12.Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol60/iss4/12Derek S. Reveron is associate professor of national secu-rity affairs at the Naval War College. He received adiploma from the Naval War College, a master’s in po-litical science, and a doctorate in public policy analysisfrom the University of Illinois at Chicago. His books in-clude Flashpoints in the War on Terrorism (2006),America’s Viceroys: The Military and U.S. ForeignPolicy (2004), and Promoting Democracy in thePost–Soviet Region (2002). He serves as a member ofthe editorial board of the Naval War College Review.Naval War College Review, Autumn 2007, Vol. 60, No. 4C:\WIP\NWCR\NWC Review Autumn 2007.vpThursday, September 13, 2007 3:41:45 PMColor profile: DisabledComposite  Default screen1Reveron: How Many Countries Does It Take to Make a Thousand-Ship Navy?Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2007RESEARCH & DEBATEHOW MANY COUNTRIES DOES IT TAKE TO MAKE A THOUSAND-SHIP NAVY?Derek S. ReveronWhile senior Navy leaders caution about taking the “thousand-ship navy” liter-ally (it does not have to be one thousand and will include coast guards, maritimeforces, port operators, commercial shippers, and local law enforcement), the im-portance of maritime cooperation necessitates an understanding of likely con-tributors. With missions of patrolling choke points, maritime interdiction, andmaritime domain awareness, it matters what types of ships are available; draft,endurance, and capabilities dictate what missions can be performed. Of the18,524 ships listed in the 2007 Jane’s Fighting Ships, at least 2,108 can be consid-ered potentially available based on size and sustainability (see figure 1).1Underlying the thousand-ship-navy concept is recognition that no singlecountry can keep the oceans safe for trade and other legitimate activities.This is logically based on the importance of seaborne trade, the size of theworld’s oceans, and globalization. At the same time global trade has in-creased, and naval fleets have steadily declined since 1989 (see figure 2).2While much has been made of China’s modernization efforts, its overall fleetFIGURE 1NAVY SHIPS BY TYPEC:\WIP\NWCR\NWC Review Autumn 2007.vpThursday, September 13, 2007 3:41:46 PMColor profile: DisabledComposite  Default screen2Naval War College Review, Vol. 60 [2007], No. 4, Art. 12https://digital-commons.usnwc. du/nwc-review/vol60/iss4/12has declined from 1,160 in 1985 to 376 in 2005. Russia experienced the steep-est decline, of almost 70 percent.Modern ships are much more operationally capable, but numbers do mat-ter when it comes to maintaining presence and responding to crises with suf-ficient capacity. If the fleets of China, Russia, the United States, the UnitedKingdom, France, and Japan were combined, there would be 872 major andminor combatants and submarines. While the United States envisions athousand-ship navy not controlled or dominated by any one country, underexisting mutual defense treaties the United States and its allies could provide1,114 ships and submarines.A key question for all maritime planners is where to deploy forces. Notsurprisingly, most of the world’s navy ships are based outside of importantoperating areas in the Northern Hemisphere, but the demand for maritimesecurity is in the Southern Hemisphere. Thisnecessitates either new concepts like sea bas-ing or new investments in forward bases andunderway replenishment.To interdict illegal trafficking and com-bat piracy, presence matters. Up until 1994,reports of piracy and armed robbery againstships were relatively equally distributedaround the world. As global trade increasedthroughout the 1990s, reports increased inthe South China Sea, the Malacca Strait, andthe Indian Ocean. In 2006, there were 240incidents of piracy, which was a 9 percentdecrease from 2005 (see figure 3).31 3 6 N A V A L W A R C O L L E G E R E V I E WFIGURE 2RISE OF GLOBAL EXPORTS AND PERCENTAGE DECLINE OF MAJOR NAVIES SINCE 1985FIGURE 32006 REPORTS OF PIRACY AND ARMEDROBBERY AGAINST SHIPSC:\WIP\NWCR\NWC Review Autumn 2007.vpThursday, September 13, 2007 3:41:47 PMColor profile: DisabledComposite  Default screen3Reveron: How Many Countries Does It Take to Make a Thousand-Ship Navy?Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2007N O T E SThe author wishes to thank Lieutenant Com-mander Tim Slentz for providing researchassistance.1. Platform inventories are based on Jane’sFighting Ships Online, “Analysis/Spreadsheet:World Naval Ship Fleets” available at www.janes.com. Major combatants include air-craft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, frigates,and corvettes. Amphibious warfare includeshelicopter carriers, and assault and landingships. Auxiliaries, landing craft, researchships, and other noncombat ships (icebreak-ers, buoy tenders, etc.), and those ships withless than one-thousand-ton displacementwere excluded. While the case could be madethat vessels of less than a thousand dead-weight tons could contribute significantly tothe thousand-ship Navy, the larger points tobe considered when designing naval coali-tions are sustainability and interoperability.2. Data include only active combat ships andderived from the appropriate years of Jane’sFighting Ships. Auxiliaries, landing craft, re-search ships, and other noncombat ships (ice-breakers, buoy tenders, etc.), and those shipswith less than one-thousand-ton displace-ment were excluded. Trade data is in billionsof dollars, derived from World Trade Organi-zation, International Trade Statistics, 2006,table IV, p. 27, and “Exports of Manufacturesof Selected Economies 1990–05,” p. 128,available at www.wto.org.3. International Maritime Organization, Reportson Acts of Piracy and Armed Robbery againstShips, Annual Report, 2006 (London: 13 April2007).R E V E R O N 1 3 7C:\WIP\NWCR\NWC Review Autumn 2007.vpThursday, September 13, 2007 3:41:48 PMColor profile: DisabledComposite  Default screen4Naval War College Review, Vol. 60 [2007], No. 4, Art. 12https://digital-commons.usnwc. du/nwc-review/vol60/iss4/12

How Many Countries Does It Take to Make a Thousand-Ship Navy?

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2035&context=nwc-review

How Many Countries Does It Take to Make a Thousand-Ship Navy?

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons