Erickson, Andrew

Horner, Charles

English

U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons

Naval War College ReviewVolume 63Number 2 Spring Article 142010Rising China and Its Postmodern Fate: Memoriesof Empire in a New Global ContextAndrew EricksonCharles HornerFollow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-reviewThis Book Review is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted forinclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contactrepository.inquiries@usnwc.edu.Recommended CitationErickson, Andrew and Horner, Charles (2010) "Rising China and Its Postmodern Fate: Memories of Empire in a New GlobalContext," Naval War College Review: Vol. 63 : No. 2 , Article 14.Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol63/iss2/14The authors identify two commoncomponents in the flawed decisionsthey studied: judgment error and theabsence of a corrective process. One ex-ample given is the case of MatthewBroderick, a retired Marine Corps gen-eral who was a seasoned decision makerin the Federal Emergency ManagementAgency’s Operations Center duringHurricane Katrina. His experience hadtaught him that initial reports from acrisis area are often exaggerated and in-accurate. Twelve hours after the hurri-cane hit New Orleans, Broderickreceived conflicting information aboutbreached levees and extensive flooding.His rational analysis was that the sit-uation was not dire, and he wenthome. By the following morning,the magnitude of the catastrophe wasunequivocal.Broderick was a competent leader withproven crisis experience, so why did heassign great validity to one source of in-formation while dismissing data fromother credible sources? The authorscontend that his misjudgment resultedfrom two cognitive errors: he incor-rectly assumed that the Katrina situa-tion “pattern-matched” his prior crisisexperiences; and he exacerbated the er-ror by “emotionally tagging” the infor-mation from his preferred source, theArmy Corps of Engineers. Pattern rec-ognition and emotional tagging arepowerful subconscious influences ondecision making.Based on the authors’ research, four“red flag conditions” are evident in de-fective decisions: misleading experi-ences, misleading prejudgments,inappropriate self-interest, and inap-propriate attachments. A red-flag con-dition forecasts vulnerability tocognitive bias. Notable examples offlawed decisions made by exceptionalmilitary, business, and governmentleaders richly illustrate the latent perilin red-flag conditions.The elements at play are subtle and sub-conscious. For example, the persistenttug of personal self-interest is hard todetect, because a self-serving bias is im-plicitly acceptable in our culture.Self-interest becomes inappropriatewhen it is unacknowledged and there isno self-awareness. It corrosively distortsthe decision process. The authors’ re-search found that inappropriate self-interest contributed to flawed strategicdecisions in more than two-thirds oftheir research cases.The book is repetitive at times, but thatminor distraction is more than offsetby its insightful advice and practicaldecision-process safeguards. The au-thors refer extensively to academiccognitive research and challenge theinvincibility of “rational and analytic”decision making, especially for leadersin complex situations where informa-tion is ambiguous.HENRY KNISKERNNaval War CollegeHorner, Charles. Rising China and Its PostmodernFate: Memories of Empire in a New Global Context.Athens: Univ. of Georgia Press, 2009. 224pp.$34.95This book connects China’s past, pres-ent, and future and places them in alarger, evolving context. Horner’s workis nothing short of a tour de force ofworld intellectual history as projectedand contested on the canvas that isChina. Eloquent and engaging, it ispointed without being overlyB O O K R E V I E W S 1 4 5NWCR_Spring2010.psC:\Documents and Settings\john.lanzieri.ctr\Desktop\NavalWarCollege\5399_NWC_Review_Spring2010\NWCR_Spring2010.vpMonday, March 01, 2010 4:18:46 PMColor profile: Generic CMYK printer profileComposite  Default screen1Erickson and Horner: Rising China and Its Postmodern Fate: Memories of Empire in a NewPublished by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 20101 4 6 N A V A L W A R C O L L E G E R E V I E Wjudgmental, incorporating an absorbingliterature review that is surprisingly co-gent, considering the sheer amount ofinformation conveyed.Horner takes a bold and transparentapproach: his “hypothetical history ofthe future” analyzes the past in the con-text of contemporary politics and de-bates, as post-1978 market reformshave opened up intellectual discourse.He explores the international dimen-sions and domestic discourses of sinol-ogy: “China’s intellectual scene is nowamong the most vibrant in the world,bringing together . . . competing ideasboth foreign and domestic.” The authorlikewise reveals his own intellectualjourney. This self-conscious approach isvaluable, since perhaps nowhere otherthan in China has history been somined, misused, analyzed, exploited—and remained a subject of such fascina-tion and debate.Horner explores longtime Chinese bu-reaucratic practices of devising normsand lessons from history, offering ex-amples from the Yuan, Ming, and Qingdynasties. Although all are invoked aspositive or negative models today,“What they stand for now is very differ-ent from what they were once thoughtto be.” More broadly, “China once in-terpreted its own past in light of yester-day’s failures, but now it is coming to anew appreciation of its past in light oftoday’s successes.” China’s usable pastincludes long if uneven “maritime andnaval traditions” that generated na-tional prestige and support for the rul-ing regime, supported vigorousshipbuilding and trade, and incorpo-rated Taiwan. It is hard to overlook therelevance, and resonance, of such issuestoday. In a useful comparative exampleof the influence of history, Horner lik-ens Zheng He’s voyages to the Apollomoon landings in the long-term trans-formations they brought in domesticopinion regarding national capabilities,despite their abrupt terminations.Strategic debate in the Qing dynasty re-garding the value of China’s westernterritories reveals enduring tensions inits strategic orientation between conti-nental and maritime frontiers and be-tween factions advocating theirrespective emphases. Horner quotesone official, whose vividly expressedviewpoint carried the day (perhaps toBeijing’s detriment, in retrospect): “Themaritime nations are like a sickness ofthe limbs, far away and light, but Russiais like a sickness of the heart and stom-ach, nearby and dangerous.”Horner tackles the enduring puzzle ofwhy China’s leaders failed to anticipatemaritime threats from Western powersand finds that the Qing government de-voted insufficient attention to diplo-macy and intelligence abroad and failedto consult knowledgeable overseas Chi-nese. Nevertheless, by the dawn of thetwentieth century, China’s intelligentsiahad achieved a deep understanding ofthe sources of Western power and“self-understanding.” Significantbureaucratic-curricular reforms provedinsufficient, however: a “painful con-sensus” emerged that “a new intellectualregime . . . would have to consolidate itspower before the country’s recovery ofnational power could begin in earnest.”Then, as now, there is widespread de-termination to make China a prosper-ous great power but uncertaintyregarding how to do so. Questionsabound: How should China relate tothe international system? How should itNWCR_Spring2010.psC:\Documents and Settings\john.lanzieri.ctr\Desktop\NavalWarCollege\5399_NWC_Review_Spring2010\NWCR_Spring2010.vpMonday, March 01, 2010 4:18:47 PMColor profile: Generic CMYK printer profileComposite  Default screen2Naval War College Review, Vol. 63 [2010], No. 2, Art. 14https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol63/iss2/14work with the existing hegemonicpower of the day? Also, to what extentcan, and should, Beijing further its in-terests militarily? Horner sees this aspart of a more fundamental questionand cites a Chinese intellectual: “Do weChinese have the possibility or necessityto form our own discourse of moder-nity, or do we open a ‘branch office’ ofthe Western discourse of modernity inChina”?I commend this book to general readersin search of intellectually stimulatingbut accessible material, to teachers ofsurvey courses at the advanced under-graduate or graduate level, and to spe-cialists seeking insights into their ownstudies of Chinese history.ANDREW ERICKSONNaval War CollegeAlterman, Jon B., and John W. Garver. The VitalTriangle: China, the United States and the MiddleEast. Washington, D.C.: CSIS, 2008. 144pp.$16.95In The Vital Triangle Jon Alterman andJohn Garver present a compact analysisof relations among China, the UnitedStates, and the countries of the Mideast.Alterman directs the Middle East Pro-gram at the Center for Strategic and In-ternational Studies, and Garver is aprofessor of international affairs atGeorgia Tech. They deliver a focused,133-page narrative, peppered withcharts illustrating statistical trends inthe energy and arms trades. Based oninterviews and conferences with schol-ars in China and the Mideast, a reviewof English- and Chinese-language sec-ondary literature, and news reporting,this study is the first attempt at acomprehensive, “three-dimensional”study of Sino-U.S. relations in regard tothe vital Middle East.Most important, the authors explainhow Beijing’s keen awareness of its lim-ited power and its recognition of theimportance of Sino-U.S. trade signifi-cantly restrain Chinese opposition toU.S. Mideast strategy. Despite China’sgrowing economic stake in the regionand declaratory opposition to U.S. “he-gemony,” Beijing gives avoiding directclashes with Washington higher prioritythan it does its relations with regionalstates. A key example is China’s deci-sion in 1997 to scale back significantlycooperation with Iran on nuclear andmissile technologies in response topressure from the Clinton administra-tion. The authors demonstrate howBeijing paradoxically combines a prac-tical policy of risk avoidance with therhetoric of antihegemonic solidarity,allowing China to reap economic andpolitical profits from Western protec-tion of the flow of Mideast energy and,simultaneously, from regional resent-ments of that same Western intervention.Beijing’s observations of rough Sovietand American experiences in Mideastgeopolitics reinforce its belief in thecost-effectiveness of a low regionalsecurity profile.The book concludes with some reason-able, if not exactly groundbreaking, rec-ommendations for managing frictionsin the China–United States–Mideast tri-angle. Of particular interest to the navalcommunity are those focused on secur-ing the maritime domain within thePersian Gulf. Alterman and Garver ad-vocate collaboration among China andWestern and Persian Gulf littoral stateson ship identification protocols, cargosecurity initiatives, and multilateralB O O K R E V I E W S 1 4 7NWCR_Spring2010.psC:\Documents and Settings\john.lanzieri.ctr\Desktop\NavalWarCollege\5399_NWC_Review_Spring2010\NWCR_Spring2010.vpMonday, March 01, 2010 4:18:47 PMColor profile: Generic CMYK printer profileComposite  Default screen3Erickson and Horner: Rising China and Its Postmodern Fate: Memories of Empire in a NewPublished by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2010

Rising China and Its Postmodern Fate: Memories of Empire in a New Global Context

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Rising China and Its Postmodern Fate: Memories of Empire in a New Global Context

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