The Pacific War and Contingent Victory is “an exercise in the elucidation of terms”—an exercise necessary to determine whether the Empire of Japan could have avoided defeat at the hands of the United States and its allies

Norton, Richard J.

English

U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons

Naval War College ReviewVolume 70Number 3 Summer Article 242017The Pacific War and Contingent Victory: WhyJapanese Defeat Was Not Inevitable, by MichaelW.MyersRichard J. NortonFollow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-reviewThis Book Review is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted forinclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contactrepository.inquiries@usnwc.edu.Recommended CitationNorton, Richard J. (2017) "The Pacific War and Contingent Victory: Why Japanese Defeat Was Not Inevitable, by MichaelW. Myers,"Naval War College Review: Vol. 70 : No. 3 , Article 24.Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol70/iss3/24B O O K  R E V I E WS  1 6 3a misprint, because North Korea did not invade South Korea until June 1950�These items are minor and easily corrected in a future edition� What remains still is a powerful book that goes into great detail, benefiting from the storytelling ability of H� W� Brands� We hope that a civil-military conflict between a towering figure like MacArthur and a sitting U�S� president is unlikely to reoccur� Yet the story remains a valid one today, with its les-sons on the reach of military power in a democracy, the role of the president in setting national policy, and the role of civilian oversight of military power�DAVID L� TESKAThe Pacific War and Contingent Victory: Why Japanese Defeat Was Not Inevitable, by Michael W� Myers� Lawrence: Univ� Press of Kansas, 2015� 208 pages� $34�95�The Pacific War and Contingent Victory is “an exercise in the elucidation of terms”—an exercise necessary to determine whether the Empire of Japan could have avoided defeat at the hands of the United States and its allies� The focus on “terms” is important, as precision and clarity are vital to Professor Michael Myers’s effort to challenge the near-universal acceptance of the idea that Japanese defeat was inevitable� On the contrary, Myers argues that there were several points in the war where the arc of history was subject to change, given a different mix of luck, skill, will, or strategy� Myers’s book takes aim at British historian H� P� Willmott—a leading proponent ofthe inevitability school—and Willmott’sassertion that since “the defeat of Japan was assured” no single battle or campaign can be considered “decisive�” The Pacific War and Contingent Victory challenges this conventional view that inherent industrial, financial, and demographic shortcomings all but guaranteed Japanese defeat�Myers is also careful to argue that, while the Japanese could have avoided defeat, this does not mean necessarily that they ultimately could have gained victory� Rather, Japan might have realized outcomes short of actual defeat, such as an armistice preserving some of the gains made early in the war, a return to the status quo ante bellum, or even a negotiated surrender that left Japan more intact than it would be when it ultimately did surrender in 1945�Myers’s challenge to Willmott and the rest of the proponents of inevitable Japanese defeat is built on an insistence on precise terms: as he explains, all that is required is to show that there was the slightest chance of a Japanese victory, however long the odds or improbable the required chain of events� If, even under the most remote of conditions, a different outcome could have oc-curred, then the inevitability argument is defeated� Myers then argues that if defeat was not a certainty, then one or more events—be they battles or campaigns or just a moment of good or ill fortune—had to be decisive� It is difficult, perhaps even impossible, to argue with Myers’s logic� His position is somewhat similar to that of a lawyer defending the owners of a carnival who offer a commonly found midway game involving tossing softballs into milk cans for prizes� All the lawyer has to do is show that it is possible for the softball to NWC_Summer2017Review.indb   163 4/21/17   8:35 AM1Norton: The Pacific War and Contingent Victory: Why Japanese Defeat Was NPublished by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 20171 6 4  NAVA L  WA R  C O L L E G E  R E V I E Wgo into the can, even if the likelihood of that happening is as close to zero as one can get, and no one ever wins a prize�Myers produces ample evidence to prove his point� He notes that even Willmott himself acknowledges that a German victory in Europe could have enabled Japan to achieve something other than defeat in the Pacific� If the avatar of inevitability admits the possibility of an alternative outcome, what else is needed to carry the argument? However, the clarification that Japanese defeat was nearly inevitable versus simply inevitable is a distinction without a difference� If this were all there was to Myers’s book, it would be scant reward for the cost of purchase or the time spent reading it� Luckily there is more�The Pacific War and Contingent Victory identifies a number of ways by which Japan might have avoided defeat� These include a United States willing to settle for a negotiated conclusion in the face of mounting casualties and war weariness� Greater success against Australia, which Myers argues could have been achieved, perhaps combined with a successful invasion and occupation of Hawaii, might have been another means to a different end�In sum, Myers’s book—which has been used in the Naval War College’s curricular case on the Pacific theater in the Second World War—by focusing on war’s contingent nature, illustrates well the oft-noted maxim that in war the enemy truly does “get a vote�”RICHARD J� NORTONO U R  R E V I E W E R SPatrick Bratton is an associate professor of national security and strategy studies at the U�S� Army War College� He graduated with a BA in history from the University of Alaska Fairbanks, completed graduate studies at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth (U�K�) and the Université de Rennes 2 (France), and received his PhD from the Catholic University of America�Thomas E. Creely is associate professor of leader development and ethics in the College of Opera-tional and Strategic Leadership at the Naval War College� He received his PhD from Salve Regina University� A retired Navy chaplain, his Navy career included sea, shore, and Marine Corps assign-ments, as well as service as an enlisted sailor�Charles Edel is an associate professor of strategy and policy at the Naval War College� He recently served as a strategic adviser to the Secretary of State on northeast Asia, the South China Sea, and the western Pacific region in the State Department’s Office of Policy Planning� He received a BA in classics from Yale College and holds a PhD in history from Yale University� An intelligence officer in the Navy Reserve, he is the author of Nation Builder: John Quincy Adams and the Grand Strategy of the Republic (Harvard Univ� Press, 2014)�Nicholas Murray teaches in the Strategy and Policy Department of the Naval War College� He received his doctorate in modern history from the University of Oxford� He is the author of The NWC_Summer2017Review.indb   164 4/21/17   8:35 AM2Naval War College Review, Vol. 70 [2017], No. 3, Art. 24https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol70/iss3/24B O O K  R E V I E WS  1 6 5Rocky Road to the Great War (Potomac Books, 2013), and he advises the Under Secretary of De-fense for Personnel and Readiness on professional military education�Richard J. Norton is a professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College� He is a retired naval officer and holds a PhD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy� His most recent publications include articles in the Naval War College Review and the Marine Corps University Journal.J. Overton is the writer/editor for the Naval Undersea Warfare Center, Division Keyport� He was previously an adjunct instructor in the Naval War College Fleet Seminar Program and the Marine Corps Command and Staff College Distance Education Program� He served in the U�S� Coast Guard, and has worked in other public affairs and historian positions for the Navy and Army�Breanne Robertson is a historian with the Marine Corps History Division at Marine Corps Uni-versity� She has published articles on Marine Corps activities in the Dominican Republic between 1916 and 1924 and on U�S� efforts to cultivate Pan-Americanism through the visual arts during World War II� She is currently editing a volume on the history and meaning of the Iwo Jima flag raisings, entitled Investigating Iwo: The Flag Raisings in Myth, Memory and Esprit de Corps.Angus Ross is a retired Royal Navy officer and professor of joint military operations at the Naval War College� He is a graduate of the College, received a second MA from Providence College, and is working on PhD studies, looking at naval transformation prior to the First World War� His recent published works include articles in this journal and others on the dilemma facing both the Royal Navy and the U�S� Navy in the wake of the dreadnought revolution�Sam J. Tangredi is a professor of national, naval, and maritime strategy at the Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College� He is the author of Anti-access Warfare: Countering A2/AD Strategies (Naval Institute Press, 2013) and two earlier books on the future security environment�David L. Teska is a retired captain in the U�S� Coast Guard Reserve� He is a graduate of Texas Tech and Kansas Universities� He works for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, U�S� Home-land Security Department�NWC_Summer2017Review.indb   165 4/21/17   8:35 AM3Norton: The Pacific War and Contingent Victory: Why Japanese Defeat Was NPublished by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2017

The Pacific War and Contingent Victory: Why Japanese Defeat Was Not Inevitable, by MichaelW. Myers

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1089&context=nwc-review

The Pacific War and Contingent Victory: Why Japanese Defeat Was Not Inevitable, by MichaelW. Myers

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons