Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

Dhar, Subash

Shukla, Priyadarshi R

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 19, 2017Low Carbon Transport in India: Co-benefits and Risk AssessmentShukla, Priyadarshi R ; Dhar, Subash; Chaturvedi, VaibhavPublication date:2013Link back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Shukla, P. R., Dhar, S., & Chaturvedi, V. (2013). Low Carbon Transport in India: Co-benefits and RiskAssessment [Sound/Visual production (digital)]. 6th Annual Meeting of the IAMC, Tsukuba, Japan, 28/10/2013,http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/iamc/events/sixth-annual-meeting-2013/Sixth Annual Meeting of the IAMC 28 30 October 2013 Tsukuba, Japan  Low Carbon Transport in India: Co-benefits and Risk Assessment   Priyadarshi R Shukla Subash Dhar Vaibhav Chaturvedi Overview 1. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Assessment a. Concepts (Multiple objectives and related Targets) b. Assessment Framework (Back-casting) c. Model System (Soft-linked Top-down/Bottom-Up Model System) 2. Scenario storylines a. Business as Usual (BaU) Scenario b. Conventional Low Carbon Scenario c. Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario (some examples) 3. Results (with focus on Transport Sector)   4. Conclusions  Low Carbon and Inclusive Development  • Mapping Transitions (Storyline Drivers) i. Demographic (Gender/Age Profiles, Urban/Rural) ii. Income (Growth, Distribution) iii. Behavior (e.g. Consumption, Conservation) iv. Governance/Institutions (Conventional/Green)      • Economics (Multiple objectives, Targets)  i. Cooperation (to vis-à-vis goals; e.g. energy access)  ii. Co-benefits (e.g. energy security, AQ) iii. Directed finance (to meet national goals)  • Policies (Market and Non-Market Policies) i. Technology (Avoid Lock-ins): Infrastructures; Targeted R&D; IPR ii. Coordinated policies to gain co-benefits (e.g. CO2 & Local Pollution) iii. Global carbon price/tax  Sustainable LC Society: Scenarios & Perspectives  Sustainable Low Carbon Mobility Framework Low Carbon Transport Infrastructures Space Design Behavior Modes (Avoid lock-ins) Supply-push (Public finance) Market Integration (PPP) Incentives (Tariff, Taxes) Governance (Policies, Rule) Education (Shape Preferences)  Inclusion (Access) Institutions (Decentralized) Land-use (Zoning, V/H City) National  Socio-economic Objectives  and Targets Global  Climate Change Targets Targets Decisions/Indicators Options Objective Back-casting Technologies R&D (Finance, IPR) Taxes/Subsidies (Targeted) Efficiency (Standards) Transport Demand Model Transport Database Transport Model Soft-Linked Integrated Model DATABASES - Socio  Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts AIM CGE Model ANSWER - MARKAL Model AIM SNAPSHOT Model End Use Demand  Model AIM Strategic Database (SDB) DATABASES End Use Demand  Model Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment AIM CGE/GCAM-IIM ANSWER- RKAL del AIM ExSS End-Use Demand Model Scenario Database Soft-Linked Integrated Model System (SLIM) Sustainable Transport Indicators Database Scenario Descriptions: EMF27 Ref: EMF27 Special Issue, Climatic Change, Sept. 2013 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2005Base_AllTechBase_LowEI2030: 550_AllTech550_LowEI450_AllTech450_LowEIBase_AllTechBase_LowEI2050: 550_AllTech550_LowEI450_AllTech450_LowEIBase_AllTechBase_LowEI2090: 550_AllTech550_LowEI450_AllTech450_LowEIOtherTrad bioElectricityBiomassCoalGasLiquidsFinal energy consumption by fuel: Effect of carbon tax versus end use efficiency Ref: Chaturvedi and Shukla, EMF27 Special Issue, Climatic Change, Sept. 2013 Co-benefits of Energy Efficiency Improvements Ref: Chaturvedi and Shukla, EMF27 Special Issue, Climatic Change, Sept. 2013 Scenario storylines a. Business as Usual (BaU) Scenario b. Conventional Low Carbon Scenario  c. Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario    Architecture for Transport Scenarios Base (BAU) GDP – 8% CAGR CO2 – 3.6 deg C Conventional Low Carbon Scenario GDP ~ 8% CAGR CO2 – 2 deg C Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario GDP  - Pegged to 8% CAGR CO2 – 2 deg C  Sustainable Mobility i. Public Transport  ii. NMT iii. Urban Design iv. High speed rail   Sustainable Technologies i. Electric Vehicles ii. Fuel Economy  iii. ICT - Navigation   Sustainable Fuels i. Bio-fuels ii.  CNG iii. Clean Electricity  Sustainable Logistics i. Dedicated Rail Co. ii. Coal by wire iii. Regional Pipelines Changes due to price of carbon Changes due to targeted strategies + a carbon budget equivalent to conventional scenario Passenger Freight Passenger & Freight BAU & Conventional LCS Storylines Business-as-Usual (BAU) – GDP growth 8% between 2010 and 2030 – Population growth consistent with medium scenario of UN population projections – Improvement in vehicle efficiencies consistent with  policies (existing & proposed) – Slow implementation of infrastructure projects (BRT; Freight Corridors, HST, etc.) Conventional Low Carbon Scenario  – GDP, Demographic projections similar to BAU – Policy and Institutional setting similar to BAU – A global price corresponding to 2 deg C target – Diffusion of more efficient vehicle technologies – Clean up of electricity due to higher diffusion of renewables    Fuel Economy: BAU and Low Carbon  -  1.0  2.0  3.0  4.0  5.0  6.0  7.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Fuel Economy (Cars) (lit gasoline / 100 km) BAU  Sustainable Low Carbon  Scenario Sustainable Low Carbon Development Scenario Storyline 1) Sustainable Mobility in Cities (City Policies; Decisions and Investments) • Enhanced NMT (Non motorised transport) • Public Transport (PT): Improved access to buses (& para-transit), BRT, Metro  • Urban Design : Changes in design, density and diversity  2) Technology (National/Regional/Local Standards and Policies) • ICT-Navigation, Electric Vehicles, Fuel Economy 3) Clean and Low Carbon Fuels (National Policies ) • CNG, Bio-fuels, Synfuels and Clean Electricity 4) Sustainable Logistics (National Policies) • Intercity Passenger: faster inter city rail network (incl. High Speed Trains) • Dedicated freight corridors , Pipelines, Coal by wire In Addition:  1) General Sustainability Measures in All Sectors (e.g. 3R)  2) Same Cumulative Carbon Emissions as in Conventional Low Carbon Scenario Sustainable Mobility Storyline  – Improved NMT (Non motorised transport) – Public Transport (PT): Improved access to buses (& para-transit), BRT, Metro  – Urban Design : Changes in design, density and diversity – Intercity : faster inter city rail connections (incl. High Speed Trains) – Use of IT : e.g., Video teleconferencing, websites to facilitate car pooling , etc.      Sustainable Freight Storyline – Rail Freight: Dedicated freight corridors (DFC), shift of fuels from rail to pipelines, etc – Ports & Inland Water ways: Greater investments in small ports and water ways  – Coal by Wire (CBW): – Regional Cooperation: International Gas pipelines, Electricity grids reduce demand for coal  Infrastructure Alternatives: Coal by Wire 262    399    486    550    567    608    626    700    782    370    449    505    516    497    500    420    313    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Coal Transportation  by Rail(billion ton km) BAU  CBWDemand for Urban Transport in  BAU & Sustainable Mobility 413 845 1,592 2,864 4,664 394 761 1,119 1,478 1,768 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Passenger Transport Demand  - Urban BAU (Bpkm)Private Public / Para transit413 803 1,353 2,320 3,498 394 772 1,178 1,614 2,060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Passenger Transport Demand  - Urban Sustainable Mobility (Bpkm)Private Public / Para transitModal Shares : Freight 0%25%50%75%100%2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Freight Modal Shares - BAURoad Rail Pipeline Coastal Shipping0%25%50%75%100%2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Freight Modal Share - Logistic GridRoad Rail Pipeline Coastal ShippingOverall Freight Demand 2010 – 1771 btkm  CAGR 2010-50* = 3.6% 2050 -  7341 btkm Overall Freight Demand 2010 – 1771 btkm  CAGR 2010-50 = 3.3% 2050 – 6558 btkm (*) Absolute values from End Use Demand Model CAGR harmonised between GCAM and MARKAL for BAU Results Energy Mix for Transport : GCAM Energy Mix for Transport : MARKAL • MARKAL has stronger improvements in energy efficiency than GCAM reflecting the optimism of technology models • Higher penetration of CNG vehicles. • In LCS the overall demand for energy is getting almost halved • Greater share of bio fuels in liquid fuels , 31% by 2050 (only 4% in BAU) CO2 Emissions: Transport BAU (*) Natural Gas emissions include both emissions from energy and fugitive emissions  Emission Intensity of Grid  (Million tCO2/GWh)  Scenario   2010 2020 2030 2040 2050  BAU   0.99  0.94  0.86  0.74  0.69   - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,2002010 2020 2030 2040 2050CO2 Emissions (Million tCO2): BAUELCNGC (')JTFOILCarbon Tax Conventional &  Social Cost of Carbon 0501001502002502010 2020 2030 2040 2050Price (US $/tCO 2) 2oC Conventional  ScenarioBase Scenario2oC Sustainability ScenarioCO2 Reductions: Demand Strategies   - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,2002010 2020 2030 2040 2050CO2 Emissions (Million tCO2): Logistic Grid + Electricity Cleaning ReductionReduction +ELCNGC (')JTFOILCumulative reductions between 2010 and 2050 are 1,794 Million tonnes  - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,2002010 2020 2030 2040 2050CO2 Emissions (Million tCO2): Sustainable Mobility + Electricity CleaningReductionReduction +ELCNGC (')JTFDSLCumulative reductions between 2010 and 2050 are 4,655 Million tonnesOI  CO2 Reductions: Supply-side Strategies  Other supply strategies – Electric Vehicles – Bio fuels – Natural Gas  - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,2002010 2020 2030 2040 2050CO2 Emissions (Million tCO2): Fuel EconomyReductionELCNGC (')JTFOILCumulative reductions between 2010 and 2050 are 1,696 Million tonnesOverall CO2 Reductions 0200400600800100012002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Emissions  Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario Sustainable mobilitySustainable logisticsFuel EconomyElectric VehiclesBio fuelsEmissionsSO2 Emissions 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 SO2 Emissions from transport   (Gg SO2) BAU Sustainable LC Scenario Conclusions 1. Passenger transport: Sustainable urban design, modal shift can contribute nearly a quarter of emissions reduction in freight transport, Facilitate non-motorized transport 2. Freight transport: Location decisions, Modal shift and regional energy market development can contribute a third of emissions reduction in freight transport. 3. Vehicle  Policies: Fuel-Efficiency Standards, Remove fuel-subsidies, Environmental taxes have significant impact 4. Fuel Mix: Global carbon price influences significant change in the transport fuel mix including decarbonization of electricity 5. Co-benefits: Sustainable low carbon transport delivers significant co- benefits, e.g., reduced air pollution, energy security, energy access, etc.     Policy implementation costs should be compared vis-à-vis benefits  Thank You  Project Website : www.unep.org/transport/lowcarbon    

Low Carbon Transport in India: Co-benefits and Risk Assessment

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Low Carbon Transport in India: Co-benefits and Risk Assessment

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