王 鵬飛

博士学位論文の要旨及び審査結果の要旨 (Summary of Thesis(DR))othe

王, 鵬飛

Tohoku University Repository (TOUR) / 東北大学機関リポジトリ

Exploring the features of macroscopicfundamental diagram and its formationmechanism based on long-term detectors data:Empirical studies on urban road networks inJapan著者 王 鵬飛号 22学位授与機関 Tohoku University学位授与番号 情博第623号URL http://hdl.handle.net/10097/00121126  1  氏名（本籍地）  王WANG 鵬PENG飛FEI  学 位 の 種 類  博 士（情報科学） 学 位 記 番 号  情 博 第 ６２３ 号 学位授与年月日  平成２８年９月２６日 学位授与の要件  学位規則第４条第１項該当 研究科、専攻  東北大学大学院情報科学研究科（博士課程）人間社会情報科学専攻 学位論文題目  Exploring the features of macroscopic fundamental diagram and its formation mechanism based on long-term detectors data: Empirical studies on urban road networks in Japan（長期間観測データに基づいた Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram の特性とその形成メカニズムの解明：日本の都市圏道路ネットワークにおける実証研究） 論文審査委員  （主査）東北大学教 授 赤松 隆              東北大学教 授 桑原 雅夫 東北大学教 授 奥村 誠              愛媛大学教 授 吉井 稔雄  論 文 内 容 の 要 旨  Chapter 1 Introduction All cities in the world are facing a growing challenge of traffic congestion. Some theories and facts in transportation field have proved that the traditional measures (e.g., building a new road or expanding the road capacity) for easing the traffic congestion is not always effective. Therefore, researchers began to change their attention on the development of traffic forecasting models. However, some studies (see Daganzo, 2007) pointed out that it is difficult to put these forecasting models into practice, because they have some limitations such as the requirement for many detailed traffic information (e.g., dynamic origin-destination). To solve these problems above, Daganzo (2007) proposed a macroscopic observation-based model called Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) that relates the number of vehicles and area's traffic production. From then on, many studies began to investigate the MFD features and its application using simulated and empirical approaches. However, eight years have passed, we still do not understand the robust features of MFD and its formation mechanism for urban road networks (including street and expressway networks). The reasons consists of two parts: (1) the number of empirical studies is much few; (2) previous studies only explored the relationship between the MFD features and some factors (e.g., spatial distribution of link density). Therefore, in order to fill the gap, this thesis aims to clarify the robust features of MFD and capture its formation mechanism for several urban road networks in Japan using long-term detectors data.  In order to achieve these two aims, in this study, we use the long-term detectors data to explore the robust features of MFDs and characteristics of congestion pattern for street networks in Sendai (Chapter 2), Kyoto (Chapter 2), Naha (Chapter 3) and metropolitan expressway networks in Tokyo (Chapter 4). Here, the long-term detectors data means the data during one year, 5/1/2012-4/30/2013 for Sendai, Kyoto and Naha street networks, 1/1/2014-12/31/2014 for Tokyo metropolitan expressway networks. Using these long-term detectors data, we can clarify the robust features under different traffic demand condition (e.g., sunny weekday vs. sunny weekend) and   2 network supply condition (e.g., sunny day vs. bad weather day).  Chapter 2 Formation of Hysteresis Loop in MFDs for Urban Street Networks This chapter aims to (1) explore the MFD features for urban street networks in Sendai (Miyagi prefecture) and Kyoto (Kyoto prefecture); (2) investigate the relationship between the MFD features (formation of hysteresis loop) and congestion pattern. In order to achieve these goals, we use the observed data of 5-min periods throughout one year (5/1/2012-4/30/2013) to analyze the characteristics of MFDs and congestion pattern.  The important findings of empirical analysis are as follows: (1) the hysteresis loops always form in MFDs on sunny weekdays for Sendai street networks and sunny weekends for Kyoto street networks; (2) MFDs on bad weather days always have different shape (e.g., the traffic production decreases, the variation (the range of traffic production for each accumulation) increases) when the rainfall or snowfall increases; (3) under the same accumulation level, the relationship between the traffic production and the number of queue-spillbacks is almost negative linear (it verified the conclusions from previous empirical studies, see Mazloumian et al., 2010, Knoop et al., 2011, Mahmassani et al., 2013); (4) the high number of queue-spillbacks is corresponding to the centralized distribution of congested links in some parts of these two road networks; (5) the spatial distribution of destinations may affect the congestion pattern obviously. The chapter in the thesis is organized as follows: Section 2.1 introduces the outline of this chapter. Section 2.2 describes the Sendai and Kyoto street networks and the observational data that is directly obtained from fixed detectors. Section 2.3 explores the MFD features under various conditions such as different traffic demand and network supply conditions. Section 2.4 analyzes the relationship between the formation of hysteresis loop in MFDs and the congestion pattern. Section 2.5 summarizes the conclusions of this chapter and suggests some directions for future research.  Chapter 3 Occurrence of Congested Regime in MFDs for Urban Street Networks This chapter aims to (1) explore the MFD features for urban street networks in Naha (Okinawa prefecture); (2) investigate the relationship between the MFD features (occurrence of congested regime) and congestion pattern; (3) explain the occurrence mechanism of congested regime in the MFD (using a simulation-based model). In order to achieve these goals, we use the observed data of 5-min periods throughout one year (5/1/2012-4/30/2013) to analyze the MFD features and congestion pattern.  The important empirical findings of this chapter are as follows: (1) the occurrence of congested regime is not a rare phenomenon (it occurs on 20.3% of sunny and rainy weekdays and 4.2% of rainy weekends) for Naha CBD street networks; (2) the MFDs with congested regime on sunny weekdays exhibit higher critical accumulation, higher maximum traffic production and lower variation than that on rainy weekdays; (3) under the same accumulation level, the relationship between the traffic production and the number of queue-spillbacks is almost negative linear; (4) if the number of queue-spillbacks exceeds its critical value, the congested regime occurs gradually with the significant increase of the number of queue-spillbacks (it verified the conclusions from previous empirical studies, see Geroliminis and Skabardonis, 2011); (5) the high number of queue-spillbacks is corresponding to that the congestion spreads in some parts of the analysis area (e.g., Route 58 and Route 330) where the traffic demand are high; (6) the existence of skewed intersection and vehicle merge spot, set of dedicated bus lane are the important reasons for the occurrence of congested regime in MFDs on Route 58 and   3 Route 330; (7) the well-defined MFD with congested regime and low scatters only exists on Route 330.  The important conclusions from the simulated analysis show that (1) the continuous high traffic demand (in the most upstream) and decrease of intersection capacity (in the most downstream) are the two fundamental reasons for the occurrence of congested regime in MFDs on a single link (e.g., Route 330); (2) the recovery of intersection capacity (due to the end of dedicated bus lane) is an important reason for the increase of traffic production during the traffic unloading process. The chapter in the thesis is organized as follows: Section 3.1 introduces the outline of this chapter. Section 3.2 describes the Naha CBD street networks and the observational data that is directly obtained from fixed detectors. Section 3.3 explores the MFD features under various conditions such as different traffic demand and network supply conditions. Section 3.4 analyzes the relationship between the occurrence of congested regime in MFDs and congestion pattern. Section 3.5 establishes a simulation-based model to capture the occurrence mechanism of congested regime in MFDs. Section 3.6 summarizes the conclusions of this chapter and suggests some directions for future research.  Chapter 4 MFD Features for Expressway Networks This chapter aims to (1) explore the MFD features for Inner Circular Route in Tokyo metropolitan expressway networks; (2) investigate the relationship between the MFD features (formation of hysteresis loop, occurrence of congested regime) and congestion pattern; (3) capture the formation mechanism of these MFD features using a simulated approach. In order to achieve these goals, we use the observed data of 1-min periods throughout one year (1/1/2014-12/31/2014) to analyze the characteristics of MFDs and congestion pattern.  The important findings of empirical analysis show the following: (1) the occurrence of congested regime and the formation of hysteresis loop in MFDs are the common phenomena on sunny and rainy weekdays; (2) triangular shaped MFDs with low scatters can be observed on some weekdays; (3) the ratio of weighted average traffic flow (its value = traffic production / the sum of length for all road sections in analysis area) and trip completion may change within-day and day-to-day (that is different from the conclusions from the previous study, see Geroliminis and Daganzo, 2008); (4) if the number of queue-spillbacks (or congested destinations) exceeds its critical value, the congested regime occurs gradually in an MFD with the increase of the number of queue-spillbacks (or congested destinations); (5) the relationship between the traffic production and the number of queue-spillbacks (or congested destinations) under the same accumulation level is almost negative linear; (6) the large number of queue-spillbacks (or congested destinations) are caused by the congestion spreading in some fixed parts of the Anti-clockwise and Clockwise Route during the entire year.  The important conclusions from the simulated analysis shows that (1) the existence of bottleneck (vehicle merge spots in Inner Circular Route) and the continuous high traffic demand are the two fundamental reasons for the occurrence of congested regime in MFDs; (2) the decrease of exit flow rate of networks due to the congestion spreading is an important reason for the occurrence of congested regime; (3) if the exit flow rate decreases quickly, during the formation of congested regime, the traffic production also decreases quickly (the slope of congested regime is small); (4) the area of hysteresis loop may become small if the congestion (bottlenecks) distributes evenly in the networks; (5) the recovery of network performance (exit flow rate) due to the congestion elimination and the high traffic demand from some JCTs are the two important reasons for the increase/holding a certain value of traffic production during the traffic unloading process.   4 The chapter in the thesis is organized as follows: Section 4.1 introduces the outline of the chapter. Section 4.2 describes the Tokyo metropolitan expressway networks and the observational data that is directly obtained from fixed detectors. Section 4.3 explores the MFD features under various conditions such as different traffic demand and network supply conditions. Then, we examine the relationship between the weighted average traffic flow and trip completion. Section 4.4 analyzes the relationship between the MFD features and the congestion pattern. Section 4.5 explains the formation mechanism of MFD features using a simulated approach. Section 4.6 summarizes the conclusions of this chapter and suggests some directions for future research.  Chapter 5 Conclusions The final chapter aims to summarize the important fact findings, conclusions obtained in this thesis and suggest some relevant research directions for future works. Based on the contributions of this thesis, we can roughly divide the further works into two parts: (1) Using these existing long-term detectors data from different urban street and expressway networks, what else can we do? (2) Do not use the detectors data, what are the research themes which have not been focused on by previous studies and have high theoretical and practical value. For the first part: we propose some research topics below: (1) Dynamic/Static network partitioning method; (2) Formation mechanism of MFD features in Sendai and Kyoto street networks; (3) Arrangement of detectors in urban street networks; (4) Forecasting of macroscopic traffic states in one region; (5) Relationship between the MFD features and road networks structure. For the second part: we propose the following research topics below: (1) Network partitioning method without detectors data; (2) The relationship between the MFD features and spatial distribution of destinations; (3) Macroscopic traffic information providing; (4) Development of congestion pattern and MFD-based control scheme; (5) Evaluation of the macroscopic traffic states using the MFD. Overall, this thesis contributes to the robust features of the MFD and its formation mechanism using the long-term detectors data from several urban road networks in Japan. Based on the contributions of this study, it is possible for us to propose a robust control method based on the MFD features and congestion pattern in the future.   論文審査結果の要旨   交通渋滞は，今なお，世界中の都市が解決すべき問題である．現在，交通渋滞の観測やモニタリングは，様々なセンサー（e.g.,車両感知器，プローブ車両）によって，個別リンクあるいは道路空間ごとに行われている．しかしながら，これらの個別の情報から，道路ネットワークの面的な交通状態や交通性能を直接把握・評価することは必ずしも容易ではない．これは混雑した道路ネットワークの（リンクレベルの）交通流ダイナミクスが，非線形な交通流現象と利用者の経路選択との相互作用により複雑な（カオス的な）挙動をするためである．このようなリンクレベルのアプローチに代わる方法として，Daganzo（2007）は，集計的なレベルでネットワークの交通状態を捉える巨視的な指標 Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram（MFD）を提案している．  本論文は，日本の都市圏における一般道路ネットワーク（仙台市，京都市，那覇市）および高速道路ネットワーク（東京都）を対象として，MFD の特性を実証的に明らかにしたものである．従来研究では短期間（高々数日間）のデータしか分析されていないのに対し，長期間（１年間）のデータで頑健に成立する MFD の特性を検証している点が，本研究の特徴である．また，従来の理論研究で示唆されていた MFD の特性の頑健性を検証したうえで，MFD の形成メカニズムを明らかにしている点も，本論文独自の貢献である．  本論文は全編 5 章からなる．第 1 章は，序論であり，まず，MFD の既存（理論と実証）研究の問題点を整理する．その上で，本研究で長期間の観測データに基づいた MFD の特徴付け，MFD の形状特性と空間的な渋滞パターンの対応関係の分析，MFD の形状特性の形成メカニズムの解明の意義を示している．  第 2 章では，仙台市と京都市の一般道路ネットワークを対象として，年間を通じた観測で頑健に成立する MFD の形状特性，およびこれと空間的な渋滞パターンの対応関係を明らかにしている．その主な結論は，以下の通りである：1）仙台市の晴れの平日の MFD では，午前中のピーク時間帯に対応するヒステリシス・ループが必ず発現する；2）京都市の休日の MFD では，1つの大きなループが発現する場合があり，このループの形成過程においては，走行台キロが一定値を維持したまま，車両存在台数が増加し続ける；3）車両存在台数が同一のデータに対して，渋滞延伸数と走行台キロの間には明確な負の相関関係（従来の理論研究で示唆されていた関係）が頑健に存在する．  第 3 章では，那覇市 CBD の一般道路ネットワークを対象として，渋滞領域が頻繁に発生する MFDの形状特性，および，その形成メカニズムを分析している．より具体的には，まず，以下の事実を明らかにしている：1）平日の約 20%の日で MFD の渋滞領域が発生する；2）渋滞領域が発生しても，ヒステリシス・ループは発現しない；3）渋滞延伸数がある臨界値を超えると，渋滞延伸数の増加につれて，MFD の渋滞領域が徐々に拡大する；3）那覇市ネットワーク全体の MFD の渋滞領域の発生は，特定のサブ・ネットワーク（国道 58 号と 330 号）の激しい渋滞延伸と対応している．そして，特性 1）と 3)（MFD 渋滞領域の発現）は，上記サブ・ネットワークの上流側流入量の増加と流出側流出能力の降下を考慮した（交通流理論に基づく）定量的モデルによって再現でき，また，特性 2）のメカニズムは，特定時間帯のバス専用レーン運用にともなう交差点容量の低下と回復によって説明できることを明らかにしている．  第 4 章では，東京都の高速道路ネットワーク（首都高速道路ネットワークの都心環状線）を対象として，ヒステリシス・ループと渋滞領域が発生する MFD の形状特性とその形成メカニズムを明らかにしている．その主な結論は以下の通りである：1）１年間の観測期間を通じて，ヒステリシス・ループと渋滞領域が常に発現する；2）再現性が高い三角形の well-defined MFD が現れる ；3）一般道路ネットワークで明らかにされた渋滞延伸数と走行台キロの間の負の相関関係は，高速道路ネットワーク上でも頑健に成立する；4）MFD の形成過程と渋滞延伸パターンの間には，安定的な対応関係がある：5)これらの特性は，渋滞延伸にともなうネットワーク流出率低下を考慮した交通流モデルによって再現できる．  第 5 章は，本研究で得られた結果の要約と今後の研究課題が述べられている．  以上要するに，本論文は，長期間の観測データを用い，MFD で頑健に成立する形状特性及びそれらの形成メカニズムを解明したものである．これらの成果は，優れて学際的な研究であって，交通工学・交通計画学を含む情報科学の学際分野の発展に寄与するところが少なくない．  よって，本論文は博士(情報科学) の学位論文として合格と認める． 

Exploring the features of macroscopic fundamental diagram and its formation mechanism based on long-term detectors data: Empirical studies on urban road networks in Japan

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長期間観測データに基づいたMacroscopic Fundamental Diagramの特性とその形成メカニズムの解明：日本の都市圏道路ネットワークにおける実証研究

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