Beset by economic problems at home and lingering wars abroad, President George W. Bush continues to be very unpopular in New Hampshire

Survey Center, UNH

English

University of New Hampshire

WMUR / GRANITE STATE POLL 
THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE 
 
October 1, 2008 
 
BUSH HEADING OUT OF OFFICE WITH DISMAL APPROVAL RATINGS IN NH 
 
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. 
 UNH Survey Center 
 603/862-2226  
 www.unh.edu/survey-center 
 
DURHAM, NH – Beset by economic problems at home and lingering wars abroad, President George W. Bush continues to 
be very unpopular in New Hampshire. 
 
These findings are based on the latest WMUR / Granite State Poll,∗ sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the 
University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred fifty (550) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were 
interviewed by telephone between September 14 and September 21, 2008.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-
4.2%. 
 
Presidential Approval 
 
There are only 3 months left in the presidency of George W. Bush and he continues to maintain abysmally low approval 
ratings in New Hampshire.  In the most recent WMUR Granite State Poll, only 27% of New Hampshire adults say they 
approve of the job Bush is doing as president, 67% disapprove, and 6% are neutral.  This represents a slight increase since 
July, but his approval rating remains below 30%.  This is close to the average of national presidential polls reported this 
week on pollster.com which finds 28% nationwide approve of Bush. 
 
Only 54% of Republicans now approve of Bush’s performance as President while 92% of Democrats and 75% of political 
Independents disapprove. 
 
                                                           
∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of 
New Hampshire Survey Center. 
Presidential Approval – G.W. Bush 
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Approve Disapprove
Bush’s personal favorability rating is at a record low in New Hampshire.  Only 24% of New Hampshire adults have a 
favorable opinion of Bush, 66% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 10% are neutral or don’t know.  Bush’s net 
favorability rating, the percentage having a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion, is an 
extremely low -42%.  Bush’s favorability rating has continued to decline due to a drop in support among Republicans – only 
51% of Republicans now say they have a favorable opinion of Bush, down from 66% in a year ago. 
 
 
 
 
Economic Approval Rating 
 
Despite the market upheavals of recent weeks, there has been a slight uptick in approval for how Bush has handled the 
economy.  Currently, 24% of New Hampshire residents, say they approve of the job President Bush is doing handling the 
economy, 70% disapprove, and 6% are neutral.  The percentage of New Hampshire residents who approve of Bush’s 
handling of the economy had been steadily declining for more than a year. 
 
 
Bush Approval:  Handling the Economy 
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Favorability Ratings – G.W. Bush 
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Favorable Unfavorable
Foreign Affairs 
 
Although approval of Bush’s handling of foreign policy has improved slightly in recent months, it continues to be unpopular 
in New Hampshire.  When asked about how the President is handling foreign affairs, only 35% of New Hampshire adults say 
they approve, 61% disapprove, and 3% are neutral.  The percentage who approval of Bush’s handling of foreign affairs has 
increased 9 percentage points since July 
 
 
 
 
Right Track – Wrong Track 
 
Overall, New Hampshire residents remain pessimistic about the direction the country is heading.  Only 21% think things in 
this country are generally going in the right direction, 69% think things are seriously off on the wrong track, and 10% don’t 
know.  Even Republicans are deeply pessimistic with only 41% thinking things are headed in the right direction while only 
6% of Democrats and 14% of Independents think things are headed in the right direction. 
 
 
 
 
Bush Approval:  Foreign Affairs 
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US Heading in Right Direction or On Wrong Track 
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Granite State Poll Methodology 
 
These findings are based on the latest WMUR / Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the 
University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred fifty (550) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were 
interviewed by telephone between September 14 and September 21, 2008.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-
4.2 percent.    
 
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and 
region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error 
including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. 
 
 
Presidential Approval 
 
“GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job as president?”  
 
 Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) 
Sep. '08 27% 6% 67% (545) 
July '08 24% 4% 72% 516 
Apr. '08 28% 3% 69% (500) 
Feb. ‘08 26% 5% 69% (550) 
Sep. ‘07 29% 5% 66% (507) 
July ‘07 24% 4% 72% (523) 
Apr. ‘07 29% 3% 68% (512) 
Feb. ‘07 31% 4% 66% (529) 
Sept. ‘06 36% 3% 60% (507) 
July ‘06 39% 7% 54% (501) 
Apr. ‘06 30% 6% 64% (496) 
Feb. ‘06 39% 3% 57% (495) 
Oct. ‘05 39% 6% 55% (505) 
July ‘05 49% 4% 47% (498) 
Apr. ‘05 50% 3% 47% (483) 
Feb. ‘05 52% 4% 43% (533) 
Oct. ‘04 51% 3% 46% (567) 
July ‘04 46% 4% 50% (503) 
Apr. ‘04 48% 6% 46% (536) 
Feb. ‘04 47% 5% 48% (505) 
Oct. ‘03 56% 4% 40% (502) 
June ‘03 64% 5% 31% (511) 
Apr. ‘03 71% 6% 23% (503) 
Feb. ‘03 65% 4% 30% (646) 
June ‘02 75% 5% 21% (658) 
Apr. ‘02 81% 6% 13% (685) 
Feb. ‘02 87% 4% 9% (724) 
Oct. ‘01 92% 2% 6% (687) 
  
Presidential Approval – Economy 
 
"GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling THE ECONOMY?" 
 
 Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) 
Sep. '08 24% 6% 70% (539) 
July '08 19% 5% 76% (515) 
Apr. '08 23% 5% 71% (499) 
Feb. ‘08 26% 4%% 70% (548) 
Sep. ‘07 37% 5% 58% (502) 
July ‘07 34% 8% 58% (518) 
Apr. ‘07 39% 5% 56% (512) 
Feb. ‘07 41% 5% 53% (529) 
Sept. ‘06 39% 6% 55% (508) 
July ‘06 39% 8% 53% (497) 
Apr. ‘06 32% 5% 63% (502) 
Feb. ‘06 39% 5% 56% (495) 
Oct. ‘05 41% 4% 55% (500) 
July ‘05 48% 4% 48% (495) 
Apr. ‘05 46% 5% 50% (490) 
Feb. ‘05 48% 5% 46% (534) 
Oct. ‘04 48% 3% 49% (568) 
July ‘04 49% 5% 47% (499) 
Apr. ‘04 43% 6% 51% (538) 
Feb. ‘04 41% 5% 54% (506) 
Oct. ‘03 46% 4% 50% (499) 
June ‘03 51% 3% 45% (512) 
Apr. ‘03 56% 6% 38% (502) 
Feb. ‘03 51% 6% 43% (644) 
June ‘02 62% 6% 32% (644) 
Apr. ‘02 70% 7% 23% (688) 
Feb. ‘02 69% 6% 25% (725) 
Oct. ‘01 75% 8% 18% (684) 
Presidential Approval - Foreign Affairs 
 
"GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling FOREIGN AFFAIRS?" 
 
 Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) 
Sep. '08 35% 3% 61% (546) 
July '08 26% 5% 69% (515) 
Apr. '08 28% 5% 67% (498) 
Feb. ‘08 27% 4% 69% (546) 
Sep. ‘07 28% 3% 69% (505) 
July ‘07 22% 3% 74% (519) 
Apr. ‘07 26% 2% 72% (510) 
Feb. ‘07 28% 3% 69% (529) 
Sept. ‘06 33% 2% 65% (506) 
July ‘06 35% 6% 59% (497) 
Apr. ‘06 28% 4% 68% (500) 
Feb. ‘06 37% 5% 58% (495) 
Oct. ‘05 38% 3% 59% (502) 
July ‘05 47% 3% 50% (497) 
Apr. ‘05 47% 4% 49% (486) 
Feb. ‘05 47% 4% 49% (533) 
Oct. ‘04 48% 3% 49% (568) 
July ‘04 41% 3% 56% (499) 
Apr. ‘04 48% 5% 48% (539) 
Feb. ‘04 44% 4% 52% (507) 
Oct. ‘03 53% 3% 44% (501) 
June ‘03 63% 3% 34% (512) 
Apr. ‘03 72% 3% 25% (506) 
Feb. ‘03 60% 4% 36% (646) 
June ‘02 69% 5% 26% (644) 
Apr. ‘02 76% 5% 19% (690) 
Feb. ‘02 86% 4% 10% (722) 
Oct. ‘01 88% 4% 7% (685) 
 
 
 
 Favorability Rating - President George W. Bush 
 
"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a 
favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  President George W. Bush." 
 
 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable NET (N=) 
Sep. '08 24% 10% 66% -42% (544) 
July '08 27% 6% 67% -40% (519) 
Apr. '08 27% 7% 65% -38% (500) 
Feb. ‘08 26% 4% 67% -41% (554) 
Sep. ‘07 29% 5% 66% -37% (507) 
July ‘07 27% 4% 69% -42% (523) 
Apr. ‘07 30% 7% 63% -33% (515) 
Feb. ‘07 32% 5% 63% -31% (535) 
Sept. ‘06 37% 5% 58% -21% (513) 
July ‘06 41% 7% 51% -10% (500) 
Apr. ‘06 35% 6% 59% -24% (505) 
Feb. ‘06 41% 6% 53% -12% (499) 
Oct. ‘05 42% 6% 52% -10% (510) 
July ‘05 52% 2% 46% +6% (497) 
Oct. ‘04 55% 2% 43% +12% (574) 
July ‘04 50% 6% 44% +6% (506) 
Apr. ‘04 48% 6% 46% +2% (540) 
Feb. ‘04 48% 4% 48% 0 (510) 
Oct. ‘03 57% 4% 38% +19% (503) 
June ‘03 62% 6% 32% +30% (514) 
Apr. ‘03 72% 5% 23% +49% (503) 
Feb. ‘03 64% 7% 29% +35% (651) 
June ‘02 69% 8% 23% +46% (641) 
Apr. ‘02 78% 6% 16% +62% (693) 
Feb. ‘02 84% 5% 11% +73% (726) 
Oct. ‘01 88% 4% 8% +80% (678) 
 
 
Right Track - Wrong Track 
 
“Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?” 
 
 Right 
Direction 
Wrong 
Track 
Don’t 
Know 
 
(N=) 
Sep. ‘08 21% 69% 10% (540) 
July '08 19% 73% 8% (508) 
Apr. '08 21% 74% 5% (487) 
Feb. ‘08 23% 71% 7% (553) 
Sep. ‘07 30% 62% 8% (505) 
July ‘07 34% 59% 6% (523) 
Apr. ‘07 37% 55% 8% (510) 
Feb. ‘07 40% 53% 7% (516) 
Sept. ‘06 34% 56% 10% (510) 
July ‘06 38% 51% 11% (496) 
Apr. ‘06 30% 62% 8% (501) 
Feb. ‘06 40% 53% 7% (487) 
Oct. ‘05 38% 55% 7% (498) 
July ‘05 47% 47% 6% (492) 
Apr. ‘05 46% 43% 11% (487) 
Feb. ‘05 53% 40% 7% (535) 
Oct. ‘04 46% 50% 4% (574) 
July ‘04 48% 43% 10% (500) 
Apr. ‘04 44% 48% 8% (535) 
Feb. ‘04 43% 49% 8% (503) 
Oct. ‘03 51% 43% 6% (487) 
June ‘03 56% 38% 5% (511) 
 
 
Presidential Approval Rating - Overall 
 
 Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) 
STATEWIDE 27% 6% 67% 545 
 
Registered Democrat 6% 1% 93% 125 
Undeclared 24% 4% 72% 214 
Registered Republican 47% 13% 39% 162 
Not registered 28% 5% 67% 43 
 
Democrat 7% 1% 92% 238 
Independent 19% 7% 75% 86 
Republican 54% 11% 35% 208 
 
Liberal 7% 2% 92% 113 
Moderate 21% 5% 74% 231 
Conservative 52% 10% 38% 165 
 
Union household 18% 6% 77% 82 
Non-union 29% 6% 65% 454 
 
5 years or less in NH 21% 4% 75% 42 
6 to 10 years 29% 4% 67% 39 
11 to 20 years 29% 6% 65% 89 
More than 20 years 27% 6% 67% 358 
 
18 to 34 15% 5% 80% 60 
35 to 49 25% 10% 65% 144 
50 to 64 28% 5% 67% 188 
65 and over 31% 3% 67% 128 
 
Male 29% 5% 67% 263 
Female 25% 8% 67% 282 
 
High school or less 39% 5% 56% 99 
Some college 26% 7% 68% 114 
College graduate 27% 5% 68% 180 
Post-graduate 20% 7% 72% 144 
 
Less than $30K 17% 6% 77% 49 
$30K to $60K 32% 6% 61% 92 
$60K to $75K 24% 9% 67% 56 
$75K to $100K 28% 6% 67% 73 
More than $100K 27% 5% 68% 131 
 
Married 33% 5% 62% 375 
Divorced/separated 15% 11% 74% 100 
Never married 12% 4% 84% 60 
 
Protestant 33% 10% 58% 209 
Catholic 30% 4% 66% 171 
Other 17% 2% 81% 140 
 
Attend services 1 or 
more/week 41% 10% 49% 129 
1-2 times a month 34% 1% 65% 75 
Less often 23% 6% 71% 143 
Never 18% 5% 78% 173 
 
North Country 42% 2% 55% 46 
Central/Lakes 24% 7% 69% 96 
Connecticut Valley 19% 12% 69% 81 
Mass Border 31% 4% 65% 154 
Seacoast 22% 4% 74% 85 
Manchester Area 29% 8% 63% 84 
 
1st Cong. District 28% 5% 67% 264 
2nd Cong. District 26% 8% 66% 281 
 
Presidential Approval Rating - Economy 
 
 Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) 
STATEWIDE 24% 6% 70% 538 
 
Registered Democrat 6% 2% 92% 126 
Undeclared 23% 4% 73% 210 
Registered Republican 39% 13% 48% 159 
Not registered 27% 2% 70% 42 
 
Democrat 7% 1% 91% 238 
Independent 16% 5% 79% 86 
Republican 46% 12% 42% 200 
 
Liberal 5% 1% 94% 113 
Moderate 17% 7% 76% 226 
Conservative 47% 9% 44% 163 
 
Union household 13% 8% 79% 84 
Non-union 25% 6% 69% 444 
 
5 years or less in NH 16% 3% 81% 42 
6 to 10 years 31% 1% 68% 38 
11 to 20 years 22% 4% 75% 90 
More than 20 years 24% 8% 68% 352 
 
18 to 34 18% 3% 79% 60 
35 to 49 20% 4% 76% 144 
50 to 64 26% 9% 65% 187 
65 and over 25% 6% 69% 125 
 
Male 25% 6% 70% 258 
Female 23% 7% 70% 280 
 
High school or less 35% 5% 60% 99 
Some college 22% 6% 72% 110 
College graduate 22% 6% 73% 176 
Post-graduate 19% 7% 74% 145 
 
Less than $30K 15% 4% 80% 48 
$30K to $60K 28% 2% 70% 91 
$60K to $75K 21% 2% 78% 56 
$75K to $100K 29% 8% 63% 71 
More than $100K 22% 8% 70% 133 
 
Married 27% 6% 67% 368 
Divorced/separated 17% 7% 76% 99 
Never married 16% 2% 82% 60 
 
Protestant 29% 7% 64% 205 
Catholic 26% 7% 67% 171 
Other 16% 3% 82% 137 
 
Attend services 1 or 
more/week 26% 10% 64% 123 
1-2 times a month 32% 6% 63% 77 
Less often 21% 6% 73% 143 
Never 20% 4% 76% 171 
 
North Country 39% 7% 53% 46 
Central/Lakes 23% 6% 71% 94 
Connecticut Valley 14% 6% 80% 79 
Mass Border 27% 6% 68% 154 
Seacoast 18% 2% 80% 82 
Manchester Area 27% 10% 63% 83 
 
1st Cong. District 25% 5% 70% 259 
2nd Cong. District 23% 7% 70% 279 
 
 
Presidential Approval Rating - Foreign Affairs 
 
 Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) 
STATEWIDE 35% 3% 61% 546 
 
Registered Democrat 9% 1% 90% 126 
Undeclared 31% 2% 67% 214 
Registered Republican 65% 6% 30% 163 
Not registered 27% 9% 64% 42 
 
Democrat 11% 0% 89% 238 
Independent 21% 6% 73% 86 
Republican 70% 5% 25% 209 
 
Liberal 7% 2% 91% 113 
Moderate 30% 2% 68% 230 
Conservative 67% 5% 28% 167 
 
Union household 27% 3% 70% 84 
Non-union 37% 3% 60% 452 
 
5 years or less in NH 28% 0% 72% 42 
6 to 10 years 38% 4% 59% 39 
11 to 20 years 33% 4% 62% 90 
More than 20 years 37% 3% 60% 359 
 
18 to 34 22% 2% 77% 60 
35 to 49 39% 3% 58% 144 
50 to 64 37% 2% 60% 191 
65 and over 33% 5% 62% 127 
 
Male 37% 3% 60% 264 
Female 34% 4% 63% 283 
 
High school or less 42% 5% 53% 98 
Some college 35% 2% 62% 113 
College graduate 37% 3% 60% 180 
Post-graduate 30% 3% 67% 146 
 
Less than $30K 19% 3% 77% 47 
$30K to $60K 39% 3% 58% 92 
$60K to $75K 35% 0% 65% 56 
$75K to $100K 36% 8% 56% 73 
More than $100K 40% 1% 59% 133 
 
Married 43% 2% 55% 377 
Divorced/separated 19% 8% 73% 99 
Never married 19% 2% 80% 59 
 
Protestant 42% 5% 54% 210 
Catholic 41% 3% 57% 173 
Other 23% 1% 76% 139 
 
Attend services 1 or 
more/week 53% 2% 46% 128 
1-2 times a month 40% 3% 56% 78 
Less often 27% 6% 67% 143 
Never 28% 1% 70% 172 
 
North Country 50% 0% 50% 46 
Central/Lakes 38% 1% 61% 95 
Connecticut Valley 20% 6% 74% 81 
Mass Border 37% 5% 58% 154 
Seacoast 26% 2% 72% 84 
Manchester Area 46% 3% 50% 86 
 
1st Cong. District 37% 2% 61% 265 
2nd Cong. District 34% 4% 62% 281 
 
 
U.S. Right Direction / Wrong Track 
 
 Right Wrong Don't 
 Direction Track Know (N=) 
STATEWIDE 21% 69% 10% 540 
 
Registered Democrat 4% 91% 5% 125 
Undeclared 17% 74% 9% 210 
Registered Republican 40% 45% 15% 161 
Not registered 23% 60% 17% 41 
 
Democrat 6% 89% 5% 234 
Independent 14% 75% 10% 86 
Republican 41% 43% 16% 205 
 
Liberal 4% 91% 5% 113 
Moderate 17% 75% 8% 228 
Conservative 40% 43% 17% 164 
 
Union household 11% 77% 12% 85 
Non-union 23% 67% 10% 446 
 
5 years or less in NH 27% 65% 9% 41 
6 to 10 years 26% 62% 12% 39 
11 to 20 years 21% 71% 7% 86 
More than 20 years 20% 69% 11% 356 
 
18 to 34 15% 74% 10% 58 
35 to 49 20% 72% 8% 143 
50 to 64 22% 67% 11% 188 
65 and over 23% 68% 9% 127 
 
Male 26% 65% 8% 261 
Female 16% 72% 12% 280 
 
High school or less 19% 66% 15% 96 
Some college 19% 75% 7% 111 
College graduate 24% 67% 10% 179 
Post-graduate 21% 69% 10% 145 
 
Less than $30K 17% 72% 11% 48 
$30K to $60K 18% 73% 9% 92 
$60K to $75K 14% 81% 5% 55 
$75K to $100K 25% 69% 6% 70 
More than $100K 27% 63% 10% 132 
 
Married 25% 65% 10% 373 
Divorced/separated 9% 78% 12% 98 
Never married 15% 80% 5% 57 
 
Protestant 23% 65% 12% 206 
Catholic 25% 65% 10% 170 
Other 15% 78% 6% 137 
 
Attend services 1 or 
more/week 28% 59% 12% 126 
1-2 times a month 25% 65% 10% 76 
Less often 19% 75% 7% 139 
Never 17% 73% 10% 173 
 
North Country 26% 58% 16% 45 
Central/Lakes 20% 71% 8% 95 
Connecticut Valley 17% 75% 8% 80 
Mass Border 22% 66% 12% 152 
Seacoast 16% 79% 5% 83 
Manchester Area 26% 60% 14% 85 
 
1st Cong. District 22% 69% 9% 265 
2nd Cong. District 20% 68% 12% 275 
 
Favorability Rating - George W. Bush 
 
 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) 
STATEWIDE 24% 9% 66% 1% 544 
 
Registered Democrat 5% 1% 94% 0% 125 
Undeclared 18% 9% 73% 0% 212 
Registered Republican 45% 17% 37% 1% 164 
Not registered 29% 2% 62% 7% 42 
 
Democrat 5% 2% 93% 0% 236 
Independent 11% 7% 81% 1% 85 
Republican 51% 16% 31% 2% 209 
 
Liberal 5% 1% 93% 1% 112 
Moderate 15% 7% 77% 1% 229 
Conservative 52% 15% 33% 1% 167 
 
Union household 14% 10% 74% 1% 84 
Non-union 26% 8% 65% 1% 451 
 
5 years or less in NH 15% 8% 76% 1% 42 
6 to 10 years 26% 7% 67% 0% 39 
11 to 20 years 22% 7% 71% 0% 89 
More than 20 years 25% 9% 65% 1% 356 
 
18 to 34 10% 7% 83% 0% 60 
35 to 49 23% 10% 67% 1% 142 
50 to 64 28% 8% 64% 0% 189 
65 and over 24% 7% 67% 2% 128 
 
Male 25% 10% 64% 0% 263 
Female 23% 8% 68% 1% 281 
 
High school or less 35% 6% 56% 3% 99 
Some college 24% 10% 66% 0% 113 
College graduate 23% 9% 67% 1% 178 
Post-graduate 19% 8% 74% 0% 145 
 
Less than $30K 14% 4% 78% 3% 49 
$30K to $60K 30% 5% 63% 2% 92 
$60K to $75K 21% 11% 67% 0% 54 
$75K to $100K 22% 11% 66% 0% 73 
More than $100K 26% 5% 68% 0% 132 
 
Married 30% 7% 62% 1% 377 
Divorced/separated 11% 12% 75% 1% 96 
Never married 11% 8% 79% 2% 60 
 
Protestant 29% 10% 59% 2% 209 
Catholic 30% 6% 64% 0% 172 
Other 12% 7% 80% 0% 138 
 
Attend services 1 or 
more/week 38% 8% 53% 0% 129 
1-2 times a month 28% 8% 63% 1% 76 
Less often 19% 11% 69% 0% 142 
Never 15% 6% 77% 2% 172 
 
North Country 29% 9% 58% 4% 46 
Central/Lakes 25% 9% 66% 0% 96 
Connecticut Valley 16% 4% 78% 1% 81 
Mass Border 25% 9% 65% 1% 153 
Seacoast 20% 9% 70% 1% 84 
Manchester Area 31% 13% 56% 0% 85 
 
1st Cong. District 27% 9% 64% 0% 265 
2nd Cong. District 21% 9% 68% 1% 279 
 
 


Bush Heading Out of Office with Dismal Approval Ratings in NH 10/01/2008

UNH Scholars' Repository

WMUR / GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE  October 1, 2008  BUSH HEADING OUT OF OFFICE WITH DISMAL APPROVAL RATINGS IN NH  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.  UNH Survey Center  603/862-2226   www.unh.edu/survey-center  DURHAM, NH – Beset by economic problems at home and lingering wars abroad, President George W. Bush continues to be very unpopular in New Hampshire.  These findings are based on the latest WMUR / Granite State Poll,∗ sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred fifty (550) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 14 and September 21, 2008.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2%.  Presidential Approval  There are only 3 months left in the presidency of George W. Bush and he continues to maintain abysmally low approval ratings in New Hampshire.  In the most recent WMUR Granite State Poll, only 27% of New Hampshire adults say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president, 67% disapprove, and 6% are neutral.  This represents a slight increase since July, but his approval rating remains below 30%.  This is close to the average of national presidential polls reported this week on pollster.com which finds 28% nationwide approve of Bush.  Only 54% of Republicans now approve of Bush’s performance as President while 92% of Democrats and 75% of political Independents disapprove.                                                             ∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Presidential Approval – G.W. Bush 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Oct. '01Feb. '02Apr. '02June '02Feb. '03Apr. '03June '03Oct. '03Feb. '04Apr. '04July '04Oct. '04Feb. '05Apr. '05July '05Oct. '05Feb. '06Apr. '06July '06Sep. '06Feb. '07April '07July '07Sep. '07Frb. '08Apr. '08July '08Sept. '08Approve DisapproveBush’s personal favorability rating is at a record low in New Hampshire.  Only 24% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Bush, 66% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 10% are neutral or don’t know.  Bush’s net favorability rating, the percentage having a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion, is an extremely low -42%.  Bush’s favorability rating has continued to decline due to a drop in support among Republicans – only 51% of Republicans now say they have a favorable opinion of Bush, down from 66% in a year ago.     Economic Approval Rating  Despite the market upheavals of recent weeks, there has been a slight uptick in approval for how Bush has handled the economy.  Currently, 24% of New Hampshire residents, say they approve of the job President Bush is doing handling the economy, 70% disapprove, and 6% are neutral.  The percentage of New Hampshire residents who approve of Bush’s handling of the economy had been steadily declining for more than a year.   Bush Approval:  Handling the Economy 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Oct. '01Feb. '02Apr. '02June '02Feb. '03Apr. '03June '03Oct. '03Feb. '04Apr. '04July '04Oct. '04Feb. '05Apr. '05July '05Oct. '05Feb. '06Apr. '06July '06Sep. '06Feb. '07April '07July '07Sep. '07Feb. '08Apr. '08July '08Sept. '08Approve DisapproveFavorability Ratings – G.W. Bush 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Oct. ‘01Feb. ‘02Apr. ‘02June ‘02Feb. ‘03Apr. ‘03June ‘03Oct. ‘03Feb. ‘04Apr. ‘04July ‘04Oct. ‘04July ‘05Oct. ‘05Feb. ‘06Apr. ‘06July '06Sep. '06Feb. '07April '07July '07Sep. '07Feb. '08Apr. '08July '08Sep. '08Favorable UnfavorableForeign Affairs  Although approval of Bush’s handling of foreign policy has improved slightly in recent months, it continues to be unpopular in New Hampshire.  When asked about how the President is handling foreign affairs, only 35% of New Hampshire adults say they approve, 61% disapprove, and 3% are neutral.  The percentage who approval of Bush’s handling of foreign affairs has increased 9 percentage points since July     Right Track – Wrong Track  Overall, New Hampshire residents remain pessimistic about the direction the country is heading.  Only 21% think things in this country are generally going in the right direction, 69% think things are seriously off on the wrong track, and 10% don’t know.  Even Republicans are deeply pessimistic with only 41% thinking things are headed in the right direction while only 6% of Democrats and 14% of Independents think things are headed in the right direction.     Bush Approval:  Foreign Affairs 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Oct. '01Feb. '02Apr. '02June '02Feb. '03Apr. '03June '03Oct. '03Feb. '04Apr. '04July '04Oct. '04Feb. '05Apr. '05July '05Oct. '05Feb. '06Apr. '06July '06Sep. '06Feb. '07April '07July '07Sep. '07Feb. '08Apr. '08July '08Sept. '08Approve DisapproveUS Heading in Right Direction or On Wrong Track 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%June '03Oct. '03Feb. '04Apr. '04July '04Oct. '04Feb. '05Apr. '05July '05Oct. '05Feb. '06Apr. '06July '06Sep. 06Feb. '07April '07July '07Sep. '07Feb. '08Apr. '08July '08Sept. '08Right Direction Wrong TrackGranite State Poll Methodology  These findings are based on the latest WMUR / Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred fifty (550) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 14 and September 21, 2008.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2 percent.     The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.   Presidential Approval  “GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job as president?”    Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) Sep. '08 27% 6% 67% (545) July '08 24% 4% 72% 516 Apr. '08 28% 3% 69% (500) Feb. ‘08 26% 5% 69% (550) Sep. ‘07 29% 5% 66% (507) July ‘07 24% 4% 72% (523) Apr. ‘07 29% 3% 68% (512) Feb. ‘07 31% 4% 66% (529) Sept. ‘06 36% 3% 60% (507) July ‘06 39% 7% 54% (501) Apr. ‘06 30% 6% 64% (496) Feb. ‘06 39% 3% 57% (495) Oct. ‘05 39% 6% 55% (505) July ‘05 49% 4% 47% (498) Apr. ‘05 50% 3% 47% (483) Feb. ‘05 52% 4% 43% (533) Oct. ‘04 51% 3% 46% (567) July ‘04 46% 4% 50% (503) Apr. ‘04 48% 6% 46% (536) Feb. ‘04 47% 5% 48% (505) Oct. ‘03 56% 4% 40% (502) June ‘03 64% 5% 31% (511) Apr. ‘03 71% 6% 23% (503) Feb. ‘03 65% 4% 30% (646) June ‘02 75% 5% 21% (658) Apr. ‘02 81% 6% 13% (685) Feb. ‘02 87% 4% 9% (724) Oct. ‘01 92% 2% 6% (687)   Presidential Approval – Economy  "GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling THE ECONOMY?"   Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) Sep. '08 24% 6% 70% (539) July '08 19% 5% 76% (515) Apr. '08 23% 5% 71% (499) Feb. ‘08 26% 4%% 70% (548) Sep. ‘07 37% 5% 58% (502) July ‘07 34% 8% 58% (518) Apr. ‘07 39% 5% 56% (512) Feb. ‘07 41% 5% 53% (529) Sept. ‘06 39% 6% 55% (508) July ‘06 39% 8% 53% (497) Apr. ‘06 32% 5% 63% (502) Feb. ‘06 39% 5% 56% (495) Oct. ‘05 41% 4% 55% (500) July ‘05 48% 4% 48% (495) Apr. ‘05 46% 5% 50% (490) Feb. ‘05 48% 5% 46% (534) Oct. ‘04 48% 3% 49% (568) July ‘04 49% 5% 47% (499) Apr. ‘04 43% 6% 51% (538) Feb. ‘04 41% 5% 54% (506) Oct. ‘03 46% 4% 50% (499) June ‘03 51% 3% 45% (512) Apr. ‘03 56% 6% 38% (502) Feb. ‘03 51% 6% 43% (644) June ‘02 62% 6% 32% (644) Apr. ‘02 70% 7% 23% (688) Feb. ‘02 69% 6% 25% (725) Oct. ‘01 75% 8% 18% (684) Presidential Approval - Foreign Affairs  "GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling FOREIGN AFFAIRS?"   Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) Sep. '08 35% 3% 61% (546) July '08 26% 5% 69% (515) Apr. '08 28% 5% 67% (498) Feb. ‘08 27% 4% 69% (546) Sep. ‘07 28% 3% 69% (505) July ‘07 22% 3% 74% (519) Apr. ‘07 26% 2% 72% (510) Feb. ‘07 28% 3% 69% (529) Sept. ‘06 33% 2% 65% (506) July ‘06 35% 6% 59% (497) Apr. ‘06 28% 4% 68% (500) Feb. ‘06 37% 5% 58% (495) Oct. ‘05 38% 3% 59% (502) July ‘05 47% 3% 50% (497) Apr. ‘05 47% 4% 49% (486) Feb. ‘05 47% 4% 49% (533) Oct. ‘04 48% 3% 49% (568) July ‘04 41% 3% 56% (499) Apr. ‘04 48% 5% 48% (539) Feb. ‘04 44% 4% 52% (507) Oct. ‘03 53% 3% 44% (501) June ‘03 63% 3% 34% (512) Apr. ‘03 72% 3% 25% (506) Feb. ‘03 60% 4% 36% (646) June ‘02 69% 5% 26% (644) Apr. ‘02 76% 5% 19% (690) Feb. ‘02 86% 4% 10% (722) Oct. ‘01 88% 4% 7% (685)     Favorability Rating - President George W. Bush  "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.  President George W. Bush."   Favorable Neutral Unfavorable NET (N=) Sep. '08 24% 10% 66% -42% (544) July '08 27% 6% 67% -40% (519) Apr. '08 27% 7% 65% -38% (500) Feb. ‘08 26% 4% 67% -41% (554) Sep. ‘07 29% 5% 66% -37% (507) July ‘07 27% 4% 69% -42% (523) Apr. ‘07 30% 7% 63% -33% (515) Feb. ‘07 32% 5% 63% -31% (535) Sept. ‘06 37% 5% 58% -21% (513) July ‘06 41% 7% 51% -10% (500) Apr. ‘06 35% 6% 59% -24% (505) Feb. ‘06 41% 6% 53% -12% (499) Oct. ‘05 42% 6% 52% -10% (510) July ‘05 52% 2% 46% +6% (497) Oct. ‘04 55% 2% 43% +12% (574) July ‘04 50% 6% 44% +6% (506) Apr. ‘04 48% 6% 46% +2% (540) Feb. ‘04 48% 4% 48% 0 (510) Oct. ‘03 57% 4% 38% +19% (503) June ‘03 62% 6% 32% +30% (514) Apr. ‘03 72% 5% 23% +49% (503) Feb. ‘03 64% 7% 29% +35% (651) June ‘02 69% 8% 23% +46% (641) Apr. ‘02 78% 6% 16% +62% (693) Feb. ‘02 84% 5% 11% +73% (726) Oct. ‘01 88% 4% 8% +80% (678)   Right Track - Wrong Track  “Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?”   Right Direction Wrong Track Don’t Know  (N=) Sep. ‘08 21% 69% 10% (540) July '08 19% 73% 8% (508) Apr. '08 21% 74% 5% (487) Feb. ‘08 23% 71% 7% (553) Sep. ‘07 30% 62% 8% (505) July ‘07 34% 59% 6% (523) Apr. ‘07 37% 55% 8% (510) Feb. ‘07 40% 53% 7% (516) Sept. ‘06 34% 56% 10% (510) July ‘06 38% 51% 11% (496) Apr. ‘06 30% 62% 8% (501) Feb. ‘06 40% 53% 7% (487) Oct. ‘05 38% 55% 7% (498) July ‘05 47% 47% 6% (492) Apr. ‘05 46% 43% 11% (487) Feb. ‘05 53% 40% 7% (535) Oct. ‘04 46% 50% 4% (574) July ‘04 48% 43% 10% (500) Apr. ‘04 44% 48% 8% (535) Feb. ‘04 43% 49% 8% (503) Oct. ‘03 51% 43% 6% (487) June ‘03 56% 38% 5% (511)   Presidential Approval Rating - Overall   Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) STATEWIDE 27% 6% 67% 545  Registered Democrat 6% 1% 93% 125 Undeclared 24% 4% 72% 214 Registered Republican 47% 13% 39% 162 Not registered 28% 5% 67% 43  Democrat 7% 1% 92% 238 Independent 19% 7% 75% 86 Republican 54% 11% 35% 208  Liberal 7% 2% 92% 113 Moderate 21% 5% 74% 231 Conservative 52% 10% 38% 165  Union household 18% 6% 77% 82 Non-union 29% 6% 65% 454  5 years or less in NH 21% 4% 75% 42 6 to 10 years 29% 4% 67% 39 11 to 20 years 29% 6% 65% 89 More than 20 years 27% 6% 67% 358  18 to 34 15% 5% 80% 60 35 to 49 25% 10% 65% 144 50 to 64 28% 5% 67% 188 65 and over 31% 3% 67% 128  Male 29% 5% 67% 263 Female 25% 8% 67% 282  High school or less 39% 5% 56% 99 Some college 26% 7% 68% 114 College graduate 27% 5% 68% 180 Post-graduate 20% 7% 72% 144  Less than $30K 17% 6% 77% 49 $30K to $60K 32% 6% 61% 92 $60K to $75K 24% 9% 67% 56 $75K to $100K 28% 6% 67% 73 More than $100K 27% 5% 68% 131  Married 33% 5% 62% 375 Divorced/separated 15% 11% 74% 100 Never married 12% 4% 84% 60  Protestant 33% 10% 58% 209 Catholic 30% 4% 66% 171 Other 17% 2% 81% 140  Attend services 1 or more/week 41% 10% 49% 129 1-2 times a month 34% 1% 65% 75 Less often 23% 6% 71% 143 Never 18% 5% 78% 173  North Country 42% 2% 55% 46 Central/Lakes 24% 7% 69% 96 Connecticut Valley 19% 12% 69% 81 Mass Border 31% 4% 65% 154 Seacoast 22% 4% 74% 85 Manchester Area 29% 8% 63% 84  1st Cong. District 28% 5% 67% 264 2nd Cong. District 26% 8% 66% 281  Presidential Approval Rating - Economy   Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) STATEWIDE 24% 6% 70% 538  Registered Democrat 6% 2% 92% 126 Undeclared 23% 4% 73% 210 Registered Republican 39% 13% 48% 159 Not registered 27% 2% 70% 42  Democrat 7% 1% 91% 238 Independent 16% 5% 79% 86 Republican 46% 12% 42% 200  Liberal 5% 1% 94% 113 Moderate 17% 7% 76% 226 Conservative 47% 9% 44% 163  Union household 13% 8% 79% 84 Non-union 25% 6% 69% 444  5 years or less in NH 16% 3% 81% 42 6 to 10 years 31% 1% 68% 38 11 to 20 years 22% 4% 75% 90 More than 20 years 24% 8% 68% 352  18 to 34 18% 3% 79% 60 35 to 49 20% 4% 76% 144 50 to 64 26% 9% 65% 187 65 and over 25% 6% 69% 125  Male 25% 6% 70% 258 Female 23% 7% 70% 280  High school or less 35% 5% 60% 99 Some college 22% 6% 72% 110 College graduate 22% 6% 73% 176 Post-graduate 19% 7% 74% 145  Less than $30K 15% 4% 80% 48 $30K to $60K 28% 2% 70% 91 $60K to $75K 21% 2% 78% 56 $75K to $100K 29% 8% 63% 71 More than $100K 22% 8% 70% 133  Married 27% 6% 67% 368 Divorced/separated 17% 7% 76% 99 Never married 16% 2% 82% 60  Protestant 29% 7% 64% 205 Catholic 26% 7% 67% 171 Other 16% 3% 82% 137  Attend services 1 or more/week 26% 10% 64% 123 1-2 times a month 32% 6% 63% 77 Less often 21% 6% 73% 143 Never 20% 4% 76% 171  North Country 39% 7% 53% 46 Central/Lakes 23% 6% 71% 94 Connecticut Valley 14% 6% 80% 79 Mass Border 27% 6% 68% 154 Seacoast 18% 2% 80% 82 Manchester Area 27% 10% 63% 83  1st Cong. District 25% 5% 70% 259 2nd Cong. District 23% 7% 70% 279   Presidential Approval Rating - Foreign Affairs   Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) STATEWIDE 35% 3% 61% 546  Registered Democrat 9% 1% 90% 126 Undeclared 31% 2% 67% 214 Registered Republican 65% 6% 30% 163 Not registered 27% 9% 64% 42  Democrat 11% 0% 89% 238 Independent 21% 6% 73% 86 Republican 70% 5% 25% 209  Liberal 7% 2% 91% 113 Moderate 30% 2% 68% 230 Conservative 67% 5% 28% 167  Union household 27% 3% 70% 84 Non-union 37% 3% 60% 452  5 years or less in NH 28% 0% 72% 42 6 to 10 years 38% 4% 59% 39 11 to 20 years 33% 4% 62% 90 More than 20 years 37% 3% 60% 359  18 to 34 22% 2% 77% 60 35 to 49 39% 3% 58% 144 50 to 64 37% 2% 60% 191 65 and over 33% 5% 62% 127  Male 37% 3% 60% 264 Female 34% 4% 63% 283  High school or less 42% 5% 53% 98 Some college 35% 2% 62% 113 College graduate 37% 3% 60% 180 Post-graduate 30% 3% 67% 146  Less than $30K 19% 3% 77% 47 $30K to $60K 39% 3% 58% 92 $60K to $75K 35% 0% 65% 56 $75K to $100K 36% 8% 56% 73 More than $100K 40% 1% 59% 133  Married 43% 2% 55% 377 Divorced/separated 19% 8% 73% 99 Never married 19% 2% 80% 59  Protestant 42% 5% 54% 210 Catholic 41% 3% 57% 173 Other 23% 1% 76% 139  Attend services 1 or more/week 53% 2% 46% 128 1-2 times a month 40% 3% 56% 78 Less often 27% 6% 67% 143 Never 28% 1% 70% 172  North Country 50% 0% 50% 46 Central/Lakes 38% 1% 61% 95 Connecticut Valley 20% 6% 74% 81 Mass Border 37% 5% 58% 154 Seacoast 26% 2% 72% 84 Manchester Area 46% 3% 50% 86  1st Cong. District 37% 2% 61% 265 2nd Cong. District 34% 4% 62% 281   U.S. Right Direction / Wrong Track   Right Wrong Don't  Direction Track Know (N=) STATEWIDE 21% 69% 10% 540  Registered Democrat 4% 91% 5% 125 Undeclared 17% 74% 9% 210 Registered Republican 40% 45% 15% 161 Not registered 23% 60% 17% 41  Democrat 6% 89% 5% 234 Independent 14% 75% 10% 86 Republican 41% 43% 16% 205  Liberal 4% 91% 5% 113 Moderate 17% 75% 8% 228 Conservative 40% 43% 17% 164  Union household 11% 77% 12% 85 Non-union 23% 67% 10% 446  5 years or less in NH 27% 65% 9% 41 6 to 10 years 26% 62% 12% 39 11 to 20 years 21% 71% 7% 86 More than 20 years 20% 69% 11% 356  18 to 34 15% 74% 10% 58 35 to 49 20% 72% 8% 143 50 to 64 22% 67% 11% 188 65 and over 23% 68% 9% 127  Male 26% 65% 8% 261 Female 16% 72% 12% 280  High school or less 19% 66% 15% 96 Some college 19% 75% 7% 111 College graduate 24% 67% 10% 179 Post-graduate 21% 69% 10% 145  Less than $30K 17% 72% 11% 48 $30K to $60K 18% 73% 9% 92 $60K to $75K 14% 81% 5% 55 $75K to $100K 25% 69% 6% 70 More than $100K 27% 63% 10% 132  Married 25% 65% 10% 373 Divorced/separated 9% 78% 12% 98 Never married 15% 80% 5% 57  Protestant 23% 65% 12% 206 Catholic 25% 65% 10% 170 Other 15% 78% 6% 137  Attend services 1 or more/week 28% 59% 12% 126 1-2 times a month 25% 65% 10% 76 Less often 19% 75% 7% 139 Never 17% 73% 10% 173  North Country 26% 58% 16% 45 Central/Lakes 20% 71% 8% 95 Connecticut Valley 17% 75% 8% 80 Mass Border 22% 66% 12% 152 Seacoast 16% 79% 5% 83 Manchester Area 26% 60% 14% 85  1st Cong. District 22% 69% 9% 265 2nd Cong. District 20% 68% 12% 275  Favorability Rating - George W. Bush   Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N) STATEWIDE 24% 9% 66% 1% 544  Registered Democrat 5% 1% 94% 0% 125 Undeclared 18% 9% 73% 0% 212 Registered Republican 45% 17% 37% 1% 164 Not registered 29% 2% 62% 7% 42  Democrat 5% 2% 93% 0% 236 Independent 11% 7% 81% 1% 85 Republican 51% 16% 31% 2% 209  Liberal 5% 1% 93% 1% 112 Moderate 15% 7% 77% 1% 229 Conservative 52% 15% 33% 1% 167  Union household 14% 10% 74% 1% 84 Non-union 26% 8% 65% 1% 451  5 years or less in NH 15% 8% 76% 1% 42 6 to 10 years 26% 7% 67% 0% 39 11 to 20 years 22% 7% 71% 0% 89 More than 20 years 25% 9% 65% 1% 356  18 to 34 10% 7% 83% 0% 60 35 to 49 23% 10% 67% 1% 142 50 to 64 28% 8% 64% 0% 189 65 and over 24% 7% 67% 2% 128  Male 25% 10% 64% 0% 263 Female 23% 8% 68% 1% 281  High school or less 35% 6% 56% 3% 99 Some college 24% 10% 66% 0% 113 College graduate 23% 9% 67% 1% 178 Post-graduate 19% 8% 74% 0% 145  Less than $30K 14% 4% 78% 3% 49 $30K to $60K 30% 5% 63% 2% 92 $60K to $75K 21% 11% 67% 0% 54 $75K to $100K 22% 11% 66% 0% 73 More than $100K 26% 5% 68% 0% 132  Married 30% 7% 62% 1% 377 Divorced/separated 11% 12% 75% 1% 96 Never married 11% 8% 79% 2% 60  Protestant 29% 10% 59% 2% 209 Catholic 30% 6% 64% 0% 172 Other 12% 7% 80% 0% 138  Attend services 1 or more/week 38% 8% 53% 0% 129 1-2 times a month 28% 8% 63% 1% 76 Less often 19% 11% 69% 0% 142 Never 15% 6% 77% 2% 172  North Country 29% 9% 58% 4% 46 Central/Lakes 25% 9% 66% 0% 96 Connecticut Valley 16% 4% 78% 1% 81 Mass Border 25% 9% 65% 1% 153 Seacoast 20% 9% 70% 1% 84 Manchester Area 31% 13% 56% 0% 85  1st Cong. District 27% 9% 64% 0% 265 2nd Cong. District 21% 9% 68% 1% 279   

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Bush Heading Out of Office with Dismal Approval Ratings in NH 10/01/2008

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