Vice President Al Gore has lost much of his lead over former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. Bradley\u27s supporters are more certain in their vote than Gore supporters, and Bradley is now viewed more favorably than Gore.  Election: NH Primary 200

Survey Center, UNH

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The WMUR / CNN Poll     By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. UNH Survey Center  (603) 862-4367  September 13, 1999     BRADLEY CLOSES GAP ON GORE   DURHAM, NH-Vice President Al Gore has lost much of his lead over former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. Bradley's supporters are more certain in their vote than Gore supporters, and Bradley is now viewed more favorably than Gore.   These findings are based on the latest WMUR / CNN Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The WMUR / CNN Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV, Channel 9 in Manchester, New Hampshire and CNN. We ask users to properly attribute this copyright to the "WMUR/ CNN Poll", conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.   Bradley Cuts Into Gore's Lead   Labor Day is the traditional start of the campaign season and this year looks to be an exciting one for the candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for President. With 5 months remaining until the New Hampshire First in the Nation Presidential Primary, Vice President Al Gore's once substantial lead over former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley has shrunk to only 5%. In the latest WMUR / CNN Poll, 46% of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters favor Gore, 41% favor Bradley, 4% favor some other candidate, and 9% are undecided.   Support for Bradley has almost doubled since the May, 1999 WMUR / CNN Poll when Gore was favored by 68% of New Hampshire democratic primary voters and Bradley was favored by only 23%.   Bradley has been campaigning hard in the Granite State raising money and working to make himself seen as a viable candidate. His challenge for the Democratic nomination is now a serious threat to Gore, a prospect that many in the Democratic party have hoped to avoid. The battle for the Democratic nomination is now likely to be costly and divisive for the Democratic party and could damage their chances of retaining the Presidency in the 2000 general election.   Independents Lean to Bradley   One of the reasons for Bradley's surge is his support among voters who are registered as Independents, but say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary. Among this important group of swing voters, 44% favor Bradley, 42% favor Gore, 3% favor some other candidate, and 11% remain undecided. Gore holds a 50% to 39% lead over Bradley among registered Democrats.   Bradley Supporters More Committed   A second reason that Bradley has narrowed the gap with Gore is that his supporters are more committed to him than are Gore's. Among Bradley supporters, 43% say they are certain to vote for Bradley and 57% say they may change their minds. Among Gore supporters, only 34% say they are certain to vote for Gore and 66% say they may change their mind.   Favorability Ratings   A third problem for Gore is that his favorability ratings among Democratic primary voters have dropped significantly. Sixty-nine percent of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Gore, 24% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 6% are neutral, and 1% don't know enough about him to say. This results in a net favorability rating of +45. In the May, 1999 WMUR / CNN Poll, Gore's net favorability rating was +72.   By contrast, Bradley has risen in the eyes of likely Democratic primary voters. In the latest WMUR / CNN Poll, 60% said they have a favorable opinion of Bradley, 8% have an unfavorable opinion, 12% are neutral, and 21% don't know enough about him to say. His net favorability rating of +52 is higher than Gore's and has risen from +44 in the May, 1999 WMUR / CNN Poll.   Clinton Fatigue?   The race between Gore and Bradley is not dividing the Democratic party on traditional Liberal-Conservative lines. Gore, the more moderate candidate, is running stronger among self-identified Liberals than is Bradley, the more Liberal candidate. Also, older Democratic voters, who are generally more moderate than younger voters, are strongly supporting Bradley. This may be an indication of Gore's being linked with Bill Clinton. Older voters give Bill Clinton lower approval ratings than do younger voters while Liberals more strongly approve of Clinton than do Moderates or Conservatives.     Can Gore Beat Bush?   Another possible reason that Democrats are moving away from Gore is that he continues to trail the leading Republican candidate, George W. Bush, in a hypothetical race for President in 2000. Democrats are becoming increasingly concerned that he cannot beat Bush. Among likely primary voters, 56% say they will vote for Bush, only 35% favor Gore, 6% favor some other candidate, and 2% are undecided. Gore has not been able to cut into Bush's lead since May.     No Clamor for a Third Choice   In recent weeks, Republican Pat Buchanan has been debating whether to leave the Republican party and run for President as a candidate from the Reform Party. Several months ago, New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith did leave the Republican party and declare his intention to run for President as an Independent. These two prominent defections have led many observers to think there is strong, grass roots support for a Third Party challenge in 2000. And there is some support among New Hampshire voters for a Third Party. In the latest WMUR / CNN Poll, 11% said they are "very likely" to vote for a Third Party candidate in 2000, 12% are "fairly likely", 26% are "somewhat likely", 37% are "not very likely", and 13% say that it depends on the candidate.   While these results do not indicate that a Third Party candidate will win in 2000, Third Party voters could be crucial in a tight election by drawing support from either the Republican or Democratic candidate. Currently, Democrats are just as likely as Republicans to say they might vote for a Third Party candidate in 2000.     Sub-Group Analysis   Al Gore runs strongest among likely Democratic primary voters with lower levels of education, women, younger voters, Liberals, and people who say they "may vote" in the election. Bill Bradley runs strongest among likely Democratic Primary voters with higher levels of income and education, men, older voters, and Conservatives. While it is too early to predict the actual makeup of the Primary electorate, Bradley is running strong among demographic groups who tend to vote more frequently, older voters, upper income voters, and highly educated voters. However, his Independent supporters have traditionally been less likely to actually vote on election day than registered Democrats, perhaps canceling out some of the turnout advantage he currently has over Gore.   Bradley gets his highest favorability ratings from Democratic primary voters aged 46 and older, those with college degrees, upper income primary voters, and those who attend church regularly. Gore's favorability ratings are high among all Democratic primary voters and his highest ratings come from lower income voters.   In the 2000 race for President, George W. Bush leads Al Gore among all groups of likely voters with the exception of Democrats, Liberals, pro-choice voters, those who do not attend church, and younger voters.   WMUR / CNN Poll Methodology  These findings are based on the most recent WMUR / CNN Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from September 5 through September 11, 1999.   A random sample of 702 likely New Hampshire Primary voters was interviewed by telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.7 percent. A sub-sample of 325 likely Democratic Primary voters was interviewed as part of this sample. In 95 of 100 cases, statewide estimates for the Democratic sub-sample will be accurate to plus or minus 5.4 percent. Results reported for subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.    In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order and question wording effects, and non-response.    Respondents to the WMUR / CNN Poll were asked: "I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of that person -- or if you have never heard of him or her." (ROTATE NAMES) - Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley - Vice President Al Gore  "Currently, Al Gore and Bill Bradley are expected to be on the Democratic primary ballot. If you were voting in the Democratic primary today ... would you vote for Al Gore or Bill Bradley?"  "Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else in the 2000 New Hampshire primary?"   "Thinking ahead to the Presidential election in November 2000. Suppose the 2000 election for President was being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and Al Gore the Democrat. Which would you like to see win?"   "How likely is it that you would consider voting for an independent candidate for President in 2000 rather than the Democratic or Republican candidates ... very likely ... fairly likely ... somewhat likely ... or not very likely?"    Candidate Favored in Democratic Primary (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)  Al Gore Bill BradleyOther Undecided May '9968%  23  3  6  (N=190) Sept. '9946%  41 4 9 (N=315)       Certainty of Voting for Candidate (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)   Certain May Change Mind All Democrats37% 64  (N=286)  Gore Supporters34% 66  (N=146)  Bradley Supporters 43% 57  (N=129)      Democratic Favorability Ratings (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)   Al Gore  Bill Bradley Favorable 69% 60  Unfavorable24% 8  Neutral6% 11  Don't Know1% 21  Net Favorable +45  +52   (N=320)(N=321)   Net Favorability Ratings (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)   Al Gore Bill Bradley May '99+72 +44  Sept. '99+45 +52    Bush or Gore in 2000 (Likely New Hampshire Primary Voters)  Al Gore George W. BushOther Undecided May '9935% 55 3 7 (N=677) Sept. '9935% 56 6 2 (N=683)   Vote for Independent in 2000 (Likely New Hampshire Primary Voters)  Very Likely  Fairly Likely  Somewhat Likely  Not Very Likely  Depends on candidate Sept. '9911% 12 26 37 13  (N=674)  

NH Democratic Primary 9/13/1999

University of New Hampshire

The WMUR / CNN Poll 
 
 
 
 
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. 
UNH Survey Center  
(603) 862-4367 
 September 13, 1999 
 
 
 
 
BRADLEY CLOSES GAP ON GORE 
 
 
DURHAM, NH-Vice President Al Gore has lost much of his lead over former New 
Jersey Senator Bill Bradley among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. Bradley's 
supporters are more certain in their vote than Gore supporters, and Bradley is now 
viewed more favorably than Gore.  
 
These findings are based on the latest WMUR / CNN Poll, conducted by the University 
of New Hampshire Survey Center. The WMUR / CNN Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV, 
Channel 9 in Manchester, New Hampshire and CNN. We ask users to properly attribute 
this copyright to the "WMUR/ CNN Poll", conducted by the University of New 
Hampshire Survey Center.  
 
Bradley Cuts Into Gore's Lead 
 
 
Labor Day is the traditional start of the campaign season and this year looks to be an 
exciting one for the candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for President. With 
5 months remaining until the New Hampshire First in the Nation Presidential Primary, 
Vice President Al Gore's once substantial lead over former New Jersey Senator Bill 
Bradley has shrunk to only 5%. In the latest WMUR / CNN Poll, 46% of likely New 
Hampshire Democratic primary voters favor Gore, 41% favor Bradley, 4% favor some 
other candidate, and 9% are undecided.  
 
Support for Bradley has almost doubled since the May, 1999 WMUR / CNN Poll when 
Gore was favored by 68% of New Hampshire democratic primary voters and Bradley 
was favored by only 23%.  
 
Bradley has been campaigning hard in the Granite State raising money and working to 
make himself seen as a viable candidate. His challenge for the Democratic nomination is 
now a serious threat to Gore, a prospect that many in the Democratic party have hoped to 
avoid. The battle for the Democratic nomination is now likely to be costly and divisive 
for the Democratic party and could damage their chances of retaining the Presidency in 
the 2000 general election.  
 
Independents Lean to Bradley 
 
 
One of the reasons for Bradley's surge is his support among voters who are registered as 
Independents, but say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary. Among this important 
group of swing voters, 44% favor Bradley, 42% favor Gore, 3% favor some other 
candidate, and 11% remain undecided. Gore holds a 50% to 39% lead over Bradley 
among registered Democrats.  
 
Bradley Supporters More Committed 
 
 
A second reason that Bradley has narrowed the gap with Gore is that his supporters are 
more committed to him than are Gore's. Among Bradley supporters, 43% say they are 
certain to vote for Bradley and 57% say they may change their minds. Among Gore 
supporters, only 34% say they are certain to vote for Gore and 66% say they may change 
their mind.  
 
Favorability Ratings 
 
 
A third problem for Gore is that his favorability ratings among Democratic primary 
voters have dropped significantly. Sixty-nine percent of likely Democratic primary voters 
have a favorable opinion of Gore, 24% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 6% are 
neutral, and 1% don't know enough about him to say. This results in a net favorability 
rating of +45. In the May, 1999 WMUR / CNN Poll, Gore's net favorability rating was 
+72.  
 
By contrast, Bradley has risen in the eyes of likely Democratic primary voters. In the 
latest WMUR / CNN Poll, 60% said they have a favorable opinion of Bradley, 8% have 
an unfavorable opinion, 12% are neutral, and 21% don't know enough about him to say. 
His net favorability rating of +52 is higher than Gore's and has risen from +44 in the 
May, 1999 WMUR / CNN Poll.  
 
Clinton Fatigue? 
 
 
The race between Gore and Bradley is not dividing the Democratic party on traditional 
Liberal-Conservative lines. Gore, the more moderate candidate, is running stronger 
among self-identified Liberals than is Bradley, the more Liberal candidate. Also, older 
Democratic voters, who are generally more moderate than younger voters, are strongly 
supporting Bradley. This may be an indication of Gore's being linked with Bill Clinton. 
Older voters give Bill Clinton lower approval ratings than do younger voters while 
Liberals more strongly approve of Clinton than do Moderates or Conservatives.  
 
 
 
Can Gore Beat Bush? 
 
 
Another possible reason that Democrats are moving away from Gore is that he continues 
to trail the leading Republican candidate, George W. Bush, in a hypothetical race for 
President in 2000. Democrats are becoming increasingly concerned that he cannot beat 
Bush. Among likely primary voters, 56% say they will vote for Bush, only 35% favor 
Gore, 6% favor some other candidate, and 2% are undecided. Gore has not been able to 
cut into Bush's lead since May.  
 
 
 
No Clamor for a Third Choice 
 
 
In recent weeks, Republican Pat Buchanan has been debating whether to leave the 
Republican party and run for President as a candidate from the Reform Party. Several 
months ago, New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith did leave the Republican party and 
declare his intention to run for President as an Independent. These two prominent 
defections have led many observers to think there is strong, grass roots support for a 
Third Party challenge in 2000. And there is some support among New Hampshire voters 
for a Third Party. In the latest WMUR / CNN Poll, 11% said they are "very likely" to 
vote for a Third Party candidate in 2000, 12% are "fairly likely", 26% are "somewhat 
likely", 37% are "not very likely", and 13% say that it depends on the candidate.  
 
While these results do not indicate that a Third Party candidate will win in 2000, Third 
Party voters could be crucial in a tight election by drawing support from either the 
Republican or Democratic candidate. Currently, Democrats are just as likely as 
Republicans to say they might vote for a Third Party candidate in 2000.  
 
 
 
Sub-Group Analysis 
 
 
Al Gore runs strongest among likely Democratic primary voters with lower levels of 
education, women, younger voters, Liberals, and people who say they "may vote" in the 
election. Bill Bradley runs strongest among likely Democratic Primary voters with higher 
levels of income and education, men, older voters, and Conservatives. While it is too 
early to predict the actual makeup of the Primary electorate, Bradley is running strong 
among demographic groups who tend to vote more frequently, older voters, upper income 
voters, and highly educated voters. However, his Independent supporters have 
traditionally been less likely to actually vote on election day than registered Democrats, 
perhaps canceling out some of the turnout advantage he currently has over Gore.  
 
Bradley gets his highest favorability ratings from Democratic primary voters aged 46 and 
older, those with college degrees, upper income primary voters, and those who attend 
church regularly. Gore's favorability ratings are high among all Democratic primary 
voters and his highest ratings come from lower income voters.  
 
In the 2000 race for President, George W. Bush leads Al Gore among all groups of likely 
voters with the exception of Democrats, Liberals, pro-choice voters, those who do not 
attend church, and younger voters.  
 
WMUR / CNN Poll Methodology  
These findings are based on the most recent WMUR / CNN Poll, conducted by the 
University of New Hampshire Survey Center from September 5 through September 11, 
1999. 
 
 
A random sample of 702 likely New Hampshire Primary voters was interviewed by 
telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.7 
percent. A sub-sample of 325 likely Democratic Primary voters was interviewed as part 
of this sample. In 95 of 100 cases, statewide estimates for the Democratic sub-sample 
will be accurate to plus or minus 5.4 percent. Results reported for subgroups have 
potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.  
 
 
In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling 
error including question order and question wording effects, and non-response.  
 
 
Respondents to the WMUR / CNN Poll were asked: 
"I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, 
please say if you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of that person -- or if you 
have never heard of him or her." (ROTATE NAMES) 
- Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley 
- Vice President Al Gore 
 
"Currently, Al Gore and Bill Bradley are expected to be on the Democratic primary 
ballot. If you were voting in the Democratic primary today ... would you vote for Al Gore 
or Bill Bradley?" 
 
"Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and 
support someone else in the 2000 New Hampshire primary?"  
 
"Thinking ahead to the Presidential election in November 2000. Suppose the 2000 
election for President was being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the 
Republican, and Al Gore the Democrat. Which would you like to see win?"  
 
"How likely is it that you would consider voting for an independent candidate for 
President in 2000 rather than the Democratic or Republican candidates ... very likely ... 
fairly likely ... somewhat likely ... or not very likely?"  
 
 
Candidate Favored in Democratic Primary 
(Likely Democratic Primary Voters)  
Al Gore 
Bill Bradley
Other 
Undecided 
May '99
68%  
23  
3  
6  
(N=190) 
Sept. '99
46%  
41 
4 
9 
(N=315) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Certainty of Voting for Candidate 
(Likely Democratic Primary Voters)  
 
Certain 
May Change Mind 
All 
Democrats
37% 
64 
 
(N=286)  
Gore 
Supporters
34% 
66 
 
(N=146)  
Bradley 
Supporters 
43% 
57 
 
(N=129)  
 
 
 
 
Democratic Favorability Ratings 
(Likely Democratic Primary Voters)  
 
Al Gore  
Bill Bradley 
Favorable 
69% 
60  
Unfavorable
24% 
8  
Neutral
6% 
11  
Don't Know
1% 
21  
Net Favorable 
+45  
+52  
 
(N=320)
(N=321) 
 
 
Net Favorability Ratings 
(Likely Democratic Primary Voters)  
 
Al Gore 
Bill Bradley 
May '99
+72 
+44  
Sept. '99
+45 
+52  
 
 
Bush or Gore in 2000 
(Likely New Hampshire Primary Voters)  
Al Gore 
George W. Bush
Other 
Undecided 
May '99
35% 
55 
3 
7 
(N=677) 
Sept. '99
35% 
56 
6 
2 
(N=683) 
 
 
Vote for Independent in 2000 
(Likely New Hampshire Primary Voters)  
Very Likely  
Fairly Likely  
Somewhat Likely  
Not Very Likely  
Depends on candidate
 
Sept. '99
11% 
12 
26 
37 
13 
 
(N=674) 
 


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NH Democratic Primary 9/13/1999

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