Drawing on recent quantitative research on Europe reaching back to the
medieval period, and noting a relationship between the quality of institutions and
economic growth, this paper offers a reassessment of Africa’s growth prospects.
Periods of positive growth driven by trade, followed by growth reversals which wiped
out the gains of the previous boom, characterized pre-modern Europe as well as
twentieth century Africa. Since per capita incomes in much of sub-Saharan Africa are
currently at the level of medieval Europe, which did not make the breakthrough to
modern economic growth until the nineteenth century, we caution against too
optimistic a reading of Africa’s recent growth experience. Without the institutional
changes necessary to facilitate structural change, growth reversals continue to pose a
serious threat to African prosperity. Only if growth continues after a downturn in
Africa’s terms of trade can we be sure that the corner has been turned
