The presence of a developed endosperm in a grape berry has been suggested to be a sufficient condition for berry set. The development of both, endosperm and embryo, leads to the formation of a seed and a grapevine flower usually contains 4 ovules. Taking this into account, a probabilistic approach has been used to study the seed content of Gewürztraminer berries in different plots in Alsace (France) over 7 years. The estimation of two probabilities, in relation with the development of the endosperm and the embryo, gives a good estimation of 5 variables (percentage of berries with 0 to 4 seeds). Knowing the number of flowers per shoot, this model explains 98 % of the variability of the number of berries per shoot and 99 % of the variability of the number of seeds per shoot between the years
