American Academic Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences
Abstract
Turkish power market has undergone a restructuring and deregulation to reach a competitive and reliable electricity market. A typical day starts when the system operator announces the next day demand forecast for the electricity and participants submit offers in response to meet the demand. Accuracy in electricity demand forecast is essential for a reliable power system and successful market operation and mathematical models help market participants to forecast the electricity demand. We use hourly electricity demand data for Turkey, for the years 2012-2014 to make a linear model taking into account weekly and diurnal periodic variations modulated by seasonal effects. The model fits the data within %4 and predicts within %9.8 in the L2 norm
