Allred, Colette A.

English

Bowling Green State University: ScholarWorks@BGSU

Bowling Green State University ScholarWorks@BGSU National Center for Family and Marriage Research Family Profiles Sociology 2019 FP-19-11 High School Seniors’ Expectations to Marry, 2017 Colette A. Allred Bowling Green State University, callred@bgsu.edu Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/ncfmr_family_profiles  Part of the Family, Life Course, and Society Commons Repository Citation Allred, Colette A., "FP-19-11 High School Seniors’ Expectations to Marry, 2017" (2019). National Center for Family and Marriage Research Family Profiles. 194. https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/ncfmr_family_profiles/194 This Report is brought to you for free and open access by the Sociology at ScholarWorks@BGSU. It has been accepted for inclusion in National Center for Family and Marriage Research Family Profiles by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@BGSU. The marriage rate in the United States has decreased from 76.5 marriages per 1,000 unmarried women in 1970 to 32.2in 2017 (FP-18-20). Although women and men are delaying marriage (FP-19-06), with a growing proportion nevermarrying (U.S. Census Bureau; FP-18-17), most adolescents still expect to marry at some point in the future. The currentprofile examines a four-decade shift in whether high school seniors expect to marry by parental educational attainment,race/ethnicity, and gender. This profile is an update to analyses using 2014 data (FP-16-14) and is the second in a three-part series using Monitoring the Future data to analyze high school seniors’ attitudes toward and expectations regardingcohabitation and marriage.   High School Seniors’ Expectations toMarry, 2017National Center for Family & Marriage ResearchNCFMRBGSUFP-19-11Colette AllredExpectations to Marry Over Time Despite a 58% decrease in the U.S.marriage rate since 1970, the shareof high school seniors who expect tomarry has changed little. Figure 1. High School Seniors’ Expectations to Marry, 1976-2017   Source: Monitoring the Future, 1976-2017   Figure 2. High School Seniors Who Expected to Marry by Parental Education,1976 and 2017   Source: Monitoring the Future, 1976 & 2017  Expectations to Marry by Parental Educational Attainment The education gradient in expectationsto marry persists. High school seniorswhose parents had higher levels ofeducation more often reportedexpecting to marry than those whoseparents had lower levels of education.About two-thirds (69%) of high schoolseniors who have parents without a highschool degree expected to marry incontrast to 79% of high school seniorswho have parents with a college degree.  <H.S. H.S./GED Some College Bachelor's+68%76% 76% 77%69%76% 79% 79%0501001976 2017Expect to marry Do not expect to marry74% 78% 79% 81% 79% 75%6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5%1976 1986 1996 2006 2014 2017050100Since 1976, the vast majority (atleast three-fourths) of high schoolseniors report they expect tomarry in the future. Very few (about 5%) high schoolseniors reported they do not expectto marry.The graph does not displayresponses from those who eitherhave “no idea” (19% in both 1976and 2017) or were already married.This project is supported with assistance from Bowling Green State University.From 2007 to 2013, support was also provided by the U.S. Department ofHealth and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning andEvaluation. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are solely those ofthe author(s) and should not be construed as representing the opinions orpolicy of any agency of the state or federal government.Family Profiles: Original reports summarizingand analyzing nationally representative datawith the goal to provide the latest analysis ofU.S. families. These profiles examine topicsrelated to the NCFMR's core research themes.419.372.3119 ncfmr@bgsu.edu Suggested Citation:http://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmrAllred, C. (2019). High school seniors’ expectations to marry, 2017. Family Profiles, FP-19-11. Bowling Green, OH: National Center forFamily & Marriage Research. https://doi.org/10.25035/ncfmr/fp-19-11. Expectations to Marry by Race & EthnicityFigure 3. High School Seniors Who Expected to Marry by Race/Ethnicity, 1976 and 2017   Source: Monitoring the Future, 1976 & 2017   Over the past four decades, a highershare of White high school seniorsreported they expect to marry thanother racial/ethnic groups.In 1976, 61% of non-White high schoolseniors reported they expect to marry.By 2017, the shares among non-Whites seems to have increased with72% expecting to marry among Blacksand 65% among Hispanics.Nearly 8 in 10 White high schoolseniors expected to marry in 1976 aswell as in 2017.    White Black Hispanic79%59% 59%72%82%69%050100Men WomenReferences:Allred, C. A. (2018). Marriage: More than a century of change, 1900-2016. Family Profiles, FP-18-17. Bowling Green, OH: National Center for Family & Marriage Research.https://doi.org/10.25035/ncfmr/fp-18-17 Payne, K. K. (2019). Median age at first marriage, 2017. Family Profiles, FP-19-06. Bowling Green, OH: National Center for Family & Marriage Research.https://doi.org/10.25035/ncfmr/fp-19-06 Schweizer, V. (2018). Marriage rate in the U.S.: Geographic variation, 2017. Family Profiles, FP-18-20. Bowling Green, OH: National Center for Family & Marriage Research.https://doi.org/10.25035/ncfmr/fp-18-20 U.S. Census Bureau (1950-2018). Historical marital status tables. Figure MS-1a. Men’s marital status. U.S. Census Bureau (1950-2018). Historical marital status tables. Figure MS-1a. Women’s marital status.  Overall, 73% of young men and 78% of young women expected tomarry in 2017 (not shown). This level is similar to the shares in 1976when 70% of men and 80% of women expected to marry. The gendergap has diminished slightly over time, with the share of men whoexpect to marry increasing, while the share of women who expect tomarry has decreased. The gender gap in expectations to marry differs according to raceand ethnicity. In 2017, 8 in 10 young White men expected to marry, while only 6 in10 young Black and Hispanic men did so.A higher share of young Black women reported they expect tomarry than did White or Hispanic women, even though lower sharesof Black women were married (FP 18-17).A higher share of White male than female high school seniorsreported expecting to marry. Among Black and Hispanic high schoolseniors, higher shares of women reported they expect to marry thantheir male counterparts of the same racial/ethnic category. Expectations to Marry by Gender and Race & EthnicityWhite Non-White Black Hispanic78%61%N.A. N.A.80%N.A.72% 65%0501001976 2017 Source: Monitoring the Future, 1976 & 2017   Figure 4. High School Seniors Who Expected to Marryby Race/Ethnicity and Gender, 1976 and 2017 

FP-19-11 High School Seniors’ Expectations to Marry, 2017

https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1193&amp;context=ncfmr_family_profiles

FP-19-11 High School Seniors’ Expectations to Marry, 2017

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Bowling Green State University: ScholarWorks@BGSU