Although the idea of Bayesian inference dates back to the late 18th century, its use by statisticians has been rare until recently. But due to advancement in the simulation techniques Bayesian inference and estimation is gaining currency. This paper seeks to focus on the Bayesian estimates of the Power Function distribution using Weibull and Generalized Gamma distributions as priors for the unknown parameters. Furthermore, the statistical performance of the obtained estimators is compared with the Maximum likelihood of Power Function distribution and the Bayesian estimator of Gamma distribution as prior of the unknown parameter. The comparison has been done using Monte Carlo simulation using MSE as yardstick of the comparison.  Keywords: Squared error loss function, Bayesian estimator, Prior distribution, Monte Carlo simulation

Al-Ghamdi, Saeed Dobbah

Hanif, Saman

Khan, Khushnoor

Shahbaz, Muhammad Qaiser

English

Although the idea of Bayesian inference dates back to the late 18th century, its use by statisticians has been rare until recently. But due to advancement in the simulation techniques Bayesian inference and estimation is gaining currency. This paper seeks to focus on the Bayesian estimates of the Power Function distribution using Weibull and Generalized Gamma distributions as priors for the unknown parameters. Furthermore, the statistical performance of the obtained estimators is compared with the Maximum likelihood of Power Function distribution and the Bayesian estimator of Gamma distribution as prior of the unknown parameter. The comparison has been done using Monte Carlo simulation using MSE as yardstick of the comparison

Saman Hanif

Saeed Dobbah Al-ghamdi

Khushnoor Khan

Muhammad Qaiser Shahbaz

CiteSeerX

Bayesian Estimation for Parameters of Power Function Distribution under Various Priors

International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE): E-Journals

Mathematical Theory and Modeling                                                                                                                                                  www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper)    ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.5, No.13, 2015  106 Bayesian Estimation for Parameters of Power Function Distribution under Various Priors  Saman Hanif, Saeed Dobbah Al-Ghamdi, Khushnoor Khan*, Muhammad Qaiser Shahbaz Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, P.O Box 80203, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia  Abstract Although the idea of Bayesian inference dates back to the late 18th century, its use by statisticians has been rare until recently. But due to advancement in the simulation techniques Bayesian inference and estimation is gaining currency. This paper seeks to focus on the Bayesian estimates of the Power Function distribution using Weibull and Generalized Gamma distributions as priors for the unknown parameters. Furthermore, the statistical performance of the obtained estimators is compared with the Maximum likelihood of Power Function distribution and the Bayesian estimator of Gamma distribution as prior of the unknown parameter. The comparison has been done using Monte Carlo simulation using MSE as yardstick of the comparison.  Keywords: Squared error loss function, Bayesian estimator, Prior distribution, Monte Carlo simulation. 1. Introduction The Power function distribution is a simple yet very powerful distribution and is used to model insurance related data. The distribution is just the inverse of the Pareto distribution and appears as a special case of the Beta distribution and has the density function                                          1; ;0 1, 0f x x x      ;    (1) where θ is shape parameter of the distribution. The distribution has also been used in reliability theory; see Zarrin et al. (2013). Estimation of parameters for the Power function distribution has been done by various authors. Mood et al. (1974) has discussed the maximum likelihood estimation for the parameters of the distribution. Zaka and Akhtar (2013) have discussed various methods, including methods of moments and least squares, for parameter estimation of the distribution. Bayesian estimation for parameters of power function distribution has also been considered by number of authors. Rahman et al. (2012) have considered Bayesian estimation for the distribution under conjugate prior and under various loss functions. Omer and Low (2012) have discussed Bayesian estimation of generalized Power function distribution under non-informative and informative priors. This paper will focus on the Bayesian estimation for parameters of Power function distribution under two different priors which has not been considered so far. Parameter estimation has been done under squared loss function.  The rest of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 discusses various available estimators of Power function distribution: Section 3, discusses the posterior distribution of θ under two different priors namely Weibull distribution and Generalized Gamma Distribution.: Section 4, discusses the Bayes estimators under the squared loss functions for both Weibull and GG distribution: Section 5, empirically compares the estimates of the parameter θ using Monte Carlo simulation. Finally Section 6 concludes the paper with brief discussion. 2. Various Available Estimators The density function of Power function distribution is given in (1). The maximum likelihood estimator for parameter θ is  11ˆlnniinx .                   (2) Rahman et al. (2012) have obtained the Bayesian estimator of parameter θ under square loss function using Gamma prior.   Mathematical Theory and Modeling                                                                                                                                                  www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper)    ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.5, No.13, 2015  107 The estimator is:   21ˆlnniinx;                   (3) where   is shape parameter and   is scale parameter of the prior distribution. Omer and Low (2012) have obtained Bayes estimate for parameter of generalized Power function distribution. The estimator is given as:    21ˆlnniinx a  ;                 (4) where a is location parameter of generalized Power function distribution. The proceeding section will give posterior distribution for parameter θ under different priors. 3. Posterior Distribution of   The density function of Power function distribution is given in (1). In this section we derive the posterior distribution of parameter θ under two different priors, namely the Weibull distribution and the Generalized Gamma distribution. The Weibull distribution is found to be useful in diverse fields ranging from engineering to medical sciences (see Lawless (2002), Martz and Waller (1982)). Habib, Roy and Atik-ur-rehman (2012) have studied the power function using different loss functions.  Generalized Gamma (GG) Distribution was introduced by Stacy &Mihram (1965). Despite its long history and growing use in various applications, the GG family and its properties have been remarkably presented in different papers.  The density function of the Weibull distribution is given as:     1 exp ; 0f         and the generalized Gamma distribution with density function is given as:     1 exp ; 0f       . Generally the posterior distribution of parameter θ is expressed as         11|||niiniif x gff x g d   x . The posterior distribution when prior distribution of θ is Weibull is obtained as under:                         1 1111 111111010 110 1 0exp|expexp 1 ln expexp 1 ln exp1ln exp!1ln exp!1!niiniinniinniirn n rir irn n rir ixfxxx dxrx drk r                                     x     10 1ln exp ; 5rn n rir ix         Mathematical Theory and Modeling                                                                                                                                                  www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper)    ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.5, No.13, 2015  108 where                    0 11ln 1!rn n rir in rk xr            . Similarly, the posterior distribution of θ when prior distribution is generalized Gamma is                          1 1121 1110 110 1 010 11exp|exp1ln exp!1ln exp!1ln exp ; 6!niiniirn n rir irn n rir irn n rir ixfxxrx drxk r                                  x where            1 0 11ln!rnir in rk xr        . The proceeding section will focus on the Bayesian estimator for the parameter of Power function distribution. 4. Bayesian Estimator of the Parameter   The posterior distribution of parameter θ under different priors was obtained in previous section. We now obtain the Bayesian estimator of the parameter θ under squared error loss function. Under the squared error loss function the Bayes estimator is simply expected value of the posterior distribution. The posterior distribution of θ when prior distribution is Weibull is given in (5) as;       11 0 11| ln exp!rn n rir if xk r         x . The expected value of the posterior distribution is:       11 0 10 01ˆ | ln exp!rn n rBW ir if d x dk r                x  or      11 0 10 01ˆ | ln exp!rn n rBW ir if d x dk r                x      10 11 1ˆ ln 1!rn n rBW ir in rxk r               .     (7) Similarly, the Bayesian estimator of   under generalized Gamma prior is expected value of the posterior distribution given in (6) and is expressed as;   0 111 1ˆ ln!rnBGG ir in rxk r          .      (8) Empirical comparison of Bayesian estimator of parameter θ under various priors will be discussed in the following section.  5. Empirical Comparison This section provides the empirical comparison of Bayesian estimators of the parameter θ under various prior distributions. The empirical study has been conducted by generating 10000 random samples of different sizes Mathematical Theory and Modeling                                                                                                                                                  www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper)    ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.5, No.13, 2015  109 from the power function distribution by using various values of θ. After drawing the samples, the Bayes estimator has been computed by using different values of parameters of prior distribution. The mean square error has been computed to see the performance of the estimates. Results of the empirical study for various values of parameters of prior distribution have been given in tables below.  Table 1: Estimated Value of Parameter   under various Prior Distribution for 2.5, 1.5 1.5and      n Criteria ˆMLE   ˆBG  ˆBW  ˆBGG  5 Estimated Value 1.873 1.699 2.415 2.203 MSE 1.136 0.266 6.057 18.576 10 Estimated Value 1.665 1.645 8.012 26.167 MSE 0.351 0.192 87.039 21.599 15 Estimated Value 1.603 1.599 14.003 27.678 MSE 0.195 0.137 1.673 0.184 20 Estimated Value 1.579 1.580 1.524 2.843 MSE 0.138 0.107 0.137 0.00005 25 Estimated Value 1.567 1.570 1.567 2.918 MSE 0.110 0.090 0.00001 0.00003 30 Estimated Value 1.553 1.557 1.607 2.993 MSE 0.087 0.074 0.00001 0.00002  Table 2: Estimated Value of Parameter   under various Prior Distribution for 3.0, 2.0 2.5and      n Criteria ˆMLE   ˆBG  ˆBW  ˆBGG  5 Estimated Value 3.149 2.103 2.141 4.612 MSE 3.158 0.196 0.0006 0.011 10 Estimated Value 2.789 2.267 2.777 5.709 MSE 1.011 0.229 0.000006 0.922 15 Estimated Value 2.674 2.333 3.321 9.914 MSE 0.551 0.209 0.030 3.125 20 Estimated Value 2.633 2.376 3.852 19.531 MSE 0.391 0.189 0.386 2.146 25 Estimated Value 2.602 2.398 2.565 4.143 MSE 0.290 0.163 0.105 0.992 30 Estimated Value 2.582 2.413 2.812 16.485 MSE 0.239 0.148 0.458 0.129  Table 2: Estimated Value of Parameter   under various Prior Distribution for 3.5, 2.5 3.0and      n Criteria ˆMLE   ˆBG  ˆBW  ˆBGG  5 Estimated Value 3.751 2.104 1.421 4.867 MSE 4.439 0.123 0.000003 0.0005 10 Estimated Value 3.343 2.392 1.298 5.5.10 MSE 1.416 0.179 0.000009 0.00002 15 Estimated Value 3.211 1.852 1.101 6.076 MSE 0.790 0.100 0.000001 0.007 20 Estimated Value 3.164 2.636 3.599 6.669 MSE 0.552 0.184 0.0000002 0.249 25 Estimated Value 3.127 2.695 3.909 8.603 MSE 0.433 0.177 0.00004 1.378 30 Estimated Value 3.102 2.737 3.191 6.986 MSE 0.343 0.163 0.0002 1.398 Mathematical Theory and Modeling                                                                                                                                                  www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper)    ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.5, No.13, 2015  110  The empirical results have also been plotted below for immediate comparison. In these plots we have given the mean square errors of various estimators given in the above tables.    Figure 1: Mean Square Errors for 2.5, 1.5 1.5and         Figure 2: Mean Square Errors for 3.0, 2.0 2.5and            Mathematical Theory and Modeling                                                                                                                                                  www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper)    ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.5, No.13, 2015  111    Figure 3: Mean Square Errors for 3.5, 2.5 3.0and       The results of empirical study are given in above tables. From the tables we can see that the Bayes estimate of the parameter θ under Weibull prior has better performance as compared to other methods as it has smallest mean square error.   6. Conclusion The present paper studied Bayesian Estimation for parameters of Power function distribution under various priors. The authors worked out the Bayes estimators under two different priors – Weibull and Generalized Gamma Distribution. Monte Carlo simulation was used to compare the efficiency of estimators. Results of the findings revealed that the performance of Bayes estimator with Weibull prior outclass other competing method for θ =3.0 irrespective of sample size. For   θ =2.5 Bayes estimator with Gamma prior performs better than the other estimators for large sample sizes. Again for small sample sizes the Bayes estimator with Weibull prior performed better as compared to other estimators. For θ =1.5 Bayes estimator with Gamma prior performs better for small sizes for large sample sizes the behavior pattern for all the estimators is the same.  References 1. Lawless, J.F., 2002.  Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data.  2nd ed., Wiley, New York. 2. Martz, H.F. and R.A. Waller, 1982. Bayesian Reliability Analysis. Wiley, New York 3. Mood A. M., Graybill, F. A., & Boes, D. C. (1974). Introduction to the theory of statistics  (3rd Ed.), Tokyo: McGraw-Hill.  4. Omar, A. A., & Low, H.C.(2012). Bayesian Estimate for Shape Parameter from Generalized      Power Function Distribution, Mathematical Theory and Modeling ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.2, No.12, 2012. 5. Rahman, H., Roy, M. K. & Baizid, A. R. (2012). Bayes estimation under conjugate prior for the case of Power function distribution, Amer. J. of Math. & Stat., 2(3), 44-48. 6. Stacy E.W., Mihram G.A. (1965)   Parameter estimation for a generalized gamma   distribution, Technometrics, 7, 349-358. 7. Zaka, A. & Akhtar, A. S. (2013). Methods for estimating the parameters of the  Power function distribution, Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operational Research, 9(2), 213-224 Mathematical Theory and Modeling                                                                                                                                                  www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper)    ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.5, No.13, 2015  112 8. Zarrin, S., Saxena, S., & Mustafa, K. (2013).  Reliability computation and Bayesian Analysis of system reliability of Power function distribution, International Journal of Advance in Engineering, Science and Technology, vol. 2, no. 4, (2013), pp. 76-86.  

https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/MTM/article/download/27734/28447

Bayesian Estimation for Parameters of Power Function Distribution under Various Priors

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

CiteSeerX

International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE): E-Journals